Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Curt Renz]

The TSLA share price moves on Friday seemed to mimic those of the major averages but were more extreme. The accelerating moves downward for the averages and TSLA during the afternoon had the appearance of similarly programmed computers behaving like lemmings after their masters left early for the weekend.

A recuperation of some of today’s losses on Monday would not surprise me. Panic, particularly if computer-driven, tends to be calmed quickly. Elon Musk will likely be met by thunderous applause at the stockholder meeting on Tuesday. Information spread from there may be helpful. So could the “under a Model S driver’s nose” announcement on June 20. I don’t foresee any more three-month price doublings or triplings, but $600+ per share is not out of the question in a few years.

I purchased all of my TSLA shares four months ago at an average price under $38. I wasn't even aware of Tesla Motors prior to that. I received a tip from a money manager I used to interview when I hosted a financial news TV program. Since buying TSLA shares, I’ve ridden through several bumps without being thrown. This despite normally holding positions for weeks at most. Steadily holding my position has turned out to be most rewarding. It could become even more so. I intend to continue owning this amazing disruptor of an established industry as it leads an electric car revolution that might possibly put it in on the road to becoming the world’s largest and most profitable automaker. I see this as a once in a generation opportunity for investors who hold tight.

Now if I could just convince the officials in my town to place electrical outlets in the municipal parking garage used by the residents of my high-rise building, I could buy the several Model S’s that my TSLA shares have earned so far. :biggrin:

 

[kenliles]

This quote is funny, at least to me, because they did... and I did... Look, I used to think the same, but those of us who uses TA knows that it is just a % chance of coming true. Whether or not you use any TA is up to you. I've talked to a lot of Fundamental analysts (I myself being one) and I often ask why they buy and sell at certain point. What they don't realize is that they are basing their decisions on TA. Some believe firmly in either camp. I am a believer that you need to know both camp... + HFT because that's about 70% of the trades nowadays.

+1 so true. TA is valuable as an indicator of odds added to fundamentals. As a stand alone I can see the snake oil comment ring true, but it does help augment fundamentals with how strong to be in or out, IMO

 

[kcveins]

Out of curiosity for my own financial gain. Which brokerage are you with?

Charles Schwab. They hiked up the interest rate to 6% at the end of April, dropped it down to 3.25% 3 weeks later and don't need the shares as of the 29th....

 

[ShortSlaver]

The TSLA share price moves on Friday seemed to mimic those of the major averages but were more extreme. The accelerating moves downward for the averages and TSLA during the afternoon had the appearance of similarly programmed computers behaving like lemmings after their masters left early for the weekend.

A recuperation of some of today’s losses on Monday would not surprise me. Panic, particularly if computer-driven, tends to be calmed quickly. Elon Musk will likely be met by thunderous applause at the stockholder meeting on Tuesday. Information spread from there may be helpful. So could the “under a Model S driver’s nose” announcement on June 20. I don’t foresee any more three-month price doublings or triplings, but $600+ per share is not out of the question in a few years.

I purchased all of my TSLA shares four months ago at an average price under $38. I wasn't even aware of Tesla Motors prior to that. I received a tip from a money manager I used to interview when I hosted a financial news TV program. Since buying TSLA shares, I’ve ridden through several bumps without being thrown. This despite normally holding positions for weeks at most. Steadily holding my position has turned out to be most rewarding. It could become even more so. I intend to continue owning this amazing disruptor of an established industry as it leads an electric car revolution that might possibly put it in on the road to becoming the world’s largest and most profitable automaker. I see this as a once in a generation opportunity for investors who hold tight.

Now if I could just convince the officials in my town to place electrical outlets in the municipal parking garage used by the residents of my high-rise building, I could buy the several Model S’s that my TSLA shares have earned so far. :biggrin:

Your advice and comments have been spot on the entire time I've been here. I too got into Tesla around when you did ($35.50 I think was my first buy) and have benefited greatly too.

The stock is a bumpy ride but it's mainly going in the right direction. I'm holding quite a few shares right now and have hated seeing my paper loss the last few days. I've also lost on options the last few days but that's the name of the game. I don't despair because I too believe these shares will be worth $300 in a few years too.

Thanks for your continued insight here.

 

[Bardlebee]

I guess I am lucky. This is the first stock I have ever bought and I am in it long term. Unfortunately I didn't have much purchasing power, so I bought 260 shares at 29 dollars way back. I did the same amount of shares for SCTY at 11 dollars.

I am quite happy with both. I believe in the product and I believe in it long term. I may purchase more stock later this year when I have saved up as I plan on holding it for a few years. I plan to see this through to the end and not worry about short-term trading.

 

[Curt Renz]

Thanks for your continued insight here.

I'm glad you're appreciative. Now let's hope that somehow I'm right despite not offering any guarantees. :wink:

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+1 so true. TA is valuable as an indicator of odds added to fundamentals. As a stand alone I can see the snake oil comment ring true, but it does help augment fundamentals with how strong to be in or out, IMO

+2. Indeed, both fundamental and technical analysis can be helpful in most cases. McGraw-Hill commissioned me to write “The Investor’s Guide to Technical Analysis”, and that is the only subject that primer covers. Nevertheless, I still study a company’s fundamentals in the manner I learned in college. But my best investments have come from understandings that transcend both disciplines. Tesla Motors is a fine example of a case in which both methods can be misleading. I suspect that is why it was priced so low until recently and attracted so many short sellers.

For an innovative new company like Tesla it is important to grasp a vision of what is being planned and to learn about the people who intend to implement it. How does its product fit in with the needs of modern consumers? If everything seems as though it could fall into place, then current fundamentals can be quite misleading. And the technicals can become distorted beyond all recognition when public trading in a company has been brief, and particularly when a large portion of its shares have been sold short.

For such a company, fundamental analysis may cause an investor to overlook a diamond in the rough. Attempts to identify its trading ranges through technical analysis can lead to a derby winning horse running away from you.

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Technical analysis is pseudoscientific snake oil. Stay away from it. It's like reading tea leaves. If anyone could predict anything off analysis of the stock charts, they would already have created a computer program to do it to every stock in the world and earn as much money as they cared to.

Actually, such programs have been created and are widely in use. The problem is that they use similar algorithms, so on days like today you see them all behaving like lemmings headed for a cliff. A skilled multi-discipline human analyst is able to blend the technicals and fundamentals along with deeper and sometimes more intuitive matters that I described in my previous post. Current software is still not anywhere near that level. Perhaps sometime in the future, but not yet.

 

[Convert2013]

Shouldn't worry about the 7% move down today as it's done 10 to 14 % moves upward several times over the past couple weeks. Expected of a stock on a down day that has gone up much higher than others in the short term. We need new catalysts. Share holder meeting positives, new (higher) price targets, higher sales figures, news on production rate increases, etc. If the overall market keeps tanking like today then I'm buying more shares.

 

[avatar]

I'm glad you're appreciative. Now let's hope that somehow I'm right despite not offering any guarantees. :wink:

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+2. Indeed, both fundamental and technical analysis can be helpful in most cases. McGraw-Hill commissioned me to write “The Investor’s Guide to Technical Analysis”, and that is the only subject that primer covers. Nevertheless, I still study a company’s fundamentals in the manner I learned in college. But my best investments have come from understandings that transcend both disciplines. Tesla Motors is a fine example of a case in which both methods can be misleading. I suspect that is why it was priced so low until recently and attracted so many short sellers.

For an innovative new company like Tesla it is important to grasp a vision of what is being planned and to learn about the people who intend to implement it. How does its product fit in with the needs of modern consumers? If everything seems as though it could fall into place, then current fundamentals can be quite misleading. And the technicals can become distorted beyond all recognition when public trading in a company has been brief, and particularly when a large portion of its shares have been sold short.

For such a company, fundamental analysis may cause an investor to overlook a diamond in the rough. Attempts to identify its trading ranges through technical analysis can lead to a derby winning horse running away from you.

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Actually, such programs have been created and are widely in use. The problem is that they use similar algorithms, so on days like today you see them all behaving like lemmings headed for a cliff. A skilled multi-discipline human analyst is able to blend the technicals and fundamentals along with deeper and sometimes more intuitive matters that I described in my previous post. Current software is still not anywhere near that level. Perhaps sometime in the future, but not yet.

Pseudoscientific. Snake Oil Science. +1. A computer can generate horoscopes too. Doesn't make it scientific.

 

[DonPedro]

Pseudoscientific. Snake Oil Science. +1. A computer can generate horoscopes too. Doesn't make it scientific.

Investor behaviour is influenced by psychology. Is it unrealistic to thing that there can be patterns in the ways we behave for instance when a stock that has gained a lot suddenly falls? That when we try to outsmart the market and buy/sell at the same time, that we can be a bit predictable? I don't think this is far fetched.

If that is the case, someone with good tools for pattern recognition might be able to generalize those patterns for future use. This is more a technology than science, and I do not think the creators and users typically claim that it is a science.

If you don't like it then don't use it - it is not required to do good investments. But no need to be provoked by discussion of TA, either.

 

[deonb]

Investor behaviour is influenced by psychology. Is it unrealistic to thing that there can be patterns in the ways we behave for instance when a stock that has gained a lot suddenly falls? That when we try to outsmart the market and buy/sell at the same time, that we can be a bit predictable? I don't think this is far fetched.

Yes, but in the aged of Computer Based Trading algorithms, there is less and less human psychology involved by the day. It's algorithms duking it out on the interwebs.

 

[Citizen-T]

Whether you believe in technical analysis or not is irrelevant. The fact of the matter is that most big money managers do, and as such, most trades that happen in a day are technical in nature. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. You don't have to like it, I certainly don't. But, to ignore it is foolish.

One of the most important things you need to do as an investor is to know your fellow investors. You are not operating in a vacuum. Other people's actions will affect you. Like it or not, you should understand it and give it its due.

Sent from my XT912 using Tapatalk 2

 

[twinklejet]

So... any insightful outlook on what will happen come Monday?

 

[FredTMC]

So... any insightful outlook on what will happen come Monday?

great question... I got nothing for ya. Clearly late market sell off was too much to prevent TSLA from breaking below $100

 

[DonPedro]

So... any insightful outlook on what will happen come Monday?

Fluctuations.

 

[huntjo]

Fluctuations.

I suspect this is accurate

 

[Causalien]

The best way to stop ppl from attacking me when discussing TA is this. Think of the stock as a patient in surgery. Think of TA are the charts the anesthetics look at, FA the raw footage of the intestins being operated by the surgeon. You might say the anesthetician is unnecessary and is a thankless job, but why deprive yourself of an extra monitor and boy do they get paid big for it. And most of the time just want ppl to stop aggressively going after them to tell they are useless when talking shop.

 

[bhuwan]

I can't believe it closed at 97. An I wrong to think this is a great time to buy?

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I can't believe it closed at 97. An I wrong to think this is a great time to buy?

If you plan to hold on for a while it's for sure a great time. The question is whether or there's going to be a really great time to buy coming up! I think it might go down a little more but there's lots of people on here thinking it would go down a little more and they miss out on their opportunity because it didn't...

 

[Miggs]

I can't believe it closed at 97. An I wrong to think this is a great time to buy?

You are not wrong. I bought some just before the close at $97.95. Here are some factors I believe are at play:

1) there is often a sell-off on Fridays as investors take profits for something else they want to do, anything from putting it into a new stock the following week or buying something over the weekend
2) there is a bit of an overall market sell-off happening at the moment. This may continue to assist with a fall in the value of TSLA for a while, but TSLA does not rise and fall with the general market like, say, Johnson & Johnson or Colgate. It's a pretty special stock with its own assists. The sell-off on TSLA will end next week I believe and it'll continue to climb.
3) there is often a "buy on the anticipation, sell on the news (even if it is good)" and this happens with many stocks. The recent Supercharger announcement is causing a sell-off... I even think that CNBC finally confirming they love the car is causing a sort of sell-off, because there is no way to anticipate what they're going to think any more!
4) this buy-on-the-anticipation factor will cause the stock to climb prior to June 20th. After the announcement it may swing the other way, since by then the news is out.
5) TSLA's nutty 30% jump happened on May 9th following the quarterly results. The next opportunity for that is going to be August 9th and there will be buy-on-anticipation in the weeks prior to that. (which in itself is a trading opportunity)
6) coming back closer into the short term, for this Monday, I believe TSLA is showing strength and the ability to hold above $90 (which you would have been called crazy to say 1 month ago, lol). I believe investors will see the break below $100 as an opportunity to buy and there will be demand on Monday morning. It's currently about 15% off its high.

I've been very happy with my TSLA so far and expect it to stay above $100 long term.

 

[kenliles]

I'm of the minority opinion that it will go down a lot more over the next weeks. A combination of effects; general market roll-over, short squeeze support is highly reduced if not absent, announcements are nearly over (back to reality time), next earnings will produce a Q over Q decline in EPS, fewer EV credits will make earnings comparisons a difficult explanation scenario to the knee jerk dumb money, the current valuation is 1/3 GM and prices in near perfect execution (sales and 25% margins), lack of news for a while to pump- we are in execution of price mode for a while.
The 3 biggest bull counters I see are strong sales (likely stronger than projected), strong demand for new longs, and Elon/GS support at the $92 area. All together I think this produces some $80s opportunities and if any unexpected negative news occurs an even lower opportunity. My thoughts are to start average in proceedings in the low 90s