-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
- Status
Bernanke comments on QE taper later this year, China flash PMI in contraction (lowest in 9 months), Treasury rates climbing, VIX up
= all markets world wide spooked
ShortSlaver
Member
ASia showing strength now. Above futures with China going well helping Japan. Lets hope the trend continues and maybe we see green tomorrow.
You make a fair point, which is that when one says "this time it is different", on does so at ones own peril. I was the one using that phrase against all the bulls in 2000, when everyone thought that a company would be extremely valuable if it was web-related, regardless of what it was.
On the other hand, sometimes it is different. Amazon and Apple were, for instance. And so was the 3com/Palm arbitrage (also 2000/01 - Google it), which I was telling everyone about and was met with "impossible, markets are efficient". If your style of investing is "fundamentals", then you will never try to pick winners in this way. However, that does not mean that others cannot make money of it. Based on all my experience as an investor and as a manager, I can safely say that Tesla is a completely unique company with a completely unique CEO. My assessment is that it is the most likely "next Apple" of any companies out there, which means that I believe that the future holds a long string of positive surprises that are currently not projectable. As such, I cannot model my expectations for the company numerically. It becomes a pure judgment call what is a too high price for the stock - I have to think at the overall size of the market (the intersection of cars and energy) and how valuable a leading position in that market could be. I also have to think at the probabilities of different levels of success (which are of course not 100%). P/E is worthless, because P/E knows nothing about the future. 2014 forward P/E is equally useless, because virtually none of the long term potential of the company will have matured at that time horizon, and again it disregards my expectations for continuous positive surprises. (By the way, if you want an empirical metric, look at the historic frequency of positive surprises, and compare that between for instance GM and Tesla - that will give you a performance gap that tells you everything about the relative valuation of the two companies).
Based on these considerations, at present I am staying "all-in" with my investment in TSLA, which I accumulated in the 40s and low 50s.
I should add that I have probably done more DCFs and other kinds of valuation than most on this forum. So it is not for lack of understanding of the math that I say it is
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
+1! On the "die bears" rant.
Ok folks.... What will TSLA open at tomorrow? I'd be shocked if it didn't gap up at all... I guess it opens at $103.00
want do YOU think?
Seriously, I'm really impressed with the 90 second fast swap, the rental model, and the "keep it if you want" battery replacement. We now see this "new optionality" for owners vs traditional supercharging. I was a fan of air-metal, but this batt swap model really exceeded my expectation of what will be coming (first to I5 and I95 by year end)
Ok folks.... What will TSLA open at tomorrow? I'd be shocked if it didn't gap up at all... I guess it opens at $103.00
want do YOU think?
Seriously, I'm really impressed with the 90 second fast swap, the rental model, and the "keep it if you want" battery replacement. We now see this "new optionality" for owners vs traditional supercharging. I was a fan of air-metal, but this batt swap model really exceeded my expectation of what will be coming (first to I5 and I95 by year end)
antochat
Pearl White P85
Although very cool, unfortunately I think we are going to see a dip tomorrow... the analysts are going to find it too gimmicky and a waste of resources that could be spent on even more superchargers. Not what I'd like to see tomorrow for my calls but that's my 02.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I think the optionality is cool but as an investor I am not particularly impressed.
By year end, I believe TM will have a swap station at Hawthorne and another in NorCal. Similarly, they'll do a couple on I95. Cost per facility ~$500k plus the rental batteries. From these initial swap stations, TM will learn what the real demand is for the swap capability.
Looks like a cheap deployment investment of less than $5M (I consider this a marketing investment). They've already invested in designing the swap capability. The non-recurring design cost is already paid for. Elon apparently said they will consider franchising the swap stations and even if they don't he said the total investment for coverage across the country is only $100-200M
- - - Updated - - -
futures are up 0.5% tonight... So yes relatively flat currently. Hopefully still flat by morning.
deonb
Active Member
Evaluating:
"TM will learn what the real demand is for the swap capability."
vs.
"I consider this a marketing investment"
If this is a marketing investment (which I agree with), I hope demand is measured as a factor of sales generated rather than actual battery swapper usage.
"TM will learn what the real demand is for the swap capability."
vs.
"I consider this a marketing investment"
If this is a marketing investment (which I agree with), I hope demand is measured as a factor of sales generated rather than actual battery swapper usage.
I think too gimmicky and marketing at this point. It is not going to generate a lot of (if any) revenue on the table for investor point of view (expense only).
I thought after the supercharger announcement swap was not required right away (build SC more kind of a path).
Tomorrow if market is not in red it will stay in same range of 99 to 103.
I thought after the supercharger announcement swap was not required right away (build SC more kind of a path).
Tomorrow if market is not in red it will stay in same range of 99 to 103.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Still digesting the swapping details, in the mean time...did you guys see this?
White House Preps Carbon Tax - Let's Call It 'ObamaAir' - Forbes
If Obama starts pushing this, TSLA is an obvious beneficiary.
White House Preps Carbon Tax - Let's Call It 'ObamaAir' - Forbes
If Obama starts pushing this, TSLA is an obvious beneficiary.
deonb
Active Member
Well, as long as the reporting is unbiased...
"If the administration has its way, the legacy of ObamaAir could well be massive blackouts and soaring electricity bills for millions of people."
I'm curious though what the process is for passing a new tax via executive order. If this was possible, why did the democrats not just do that every time they ran up against a roadblock in the past?
- - - Updated - - -
It's up:
http://www.teslamotors.com/batteryswap
erha
Member
Tesla (TL0:Frankfurt) is up more than 3 % today
Edit: getting unsure now. When checking other websites it says up less than 1%
Edit: getting unsure now. When checking other websites it says up less than 1%
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I've never been a big fan of swapping for a number of reasons, but Tesla has made a compelling case as to why they could make it work, and I think by taking yet another negative talking point away from detractors, i.e. charging time, this will help the stock. Tesla has consistently been nullifying the concerns of the naysayers one by one. Other than vehicle cost, what's left?
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Lower than usual volumes at pre-market and during the opening minutes, suggests this swapping announcement / demo was already priced in. Looks like we are entering calmer waters, for TSLA at least.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Poll
