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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Reporter took numbers directly from Elon. There is a direct quote. And my guess would be that Elon do know key metrics that affect his business... You guess could be different, it is ok.

Dave, please do not try to pretend that "numbers" do not come from Elon. It is totally ok if you think that Elon's claims are "fishy". But by switching attention to reporter instead of real source, you are trying to twist the facts. The facts that you think are fishy.

BTW, FWIW the facts mentioned by Elon do align perfectly with mine estimates of how TM is doing in automation department. And IMHO TM got tons of room to improve.

1. The whole article was fishy to me. He interviewed Elon Musk and only supplied two direct quotes in his whole article. Note that the 3000 employees at the fremont factory and 2000 at assembly was not directly quoted in the article. It was the reporter's paraphrase of what Musk said.

2. If you watch the Bloomberg video, there were several times were the reporter was too loose with his words. In the video he says that Tesla's hoping to be at 800 cars/week in "a year from now or late next year". Which is it? Is it a year from now... or is it late next year? The reporter is not clear. In his written article he says "late 2014". But even what does that mean? Second half of 2014. By the end of 2014? 4Q of 2012? My question is what EXACTLY did Elon Musk say? Did Elon Musk say "late 2014" or "by end of 2014" or something else.

3. 3000 factory workers just doesn't make sense with the numbers. Tesla had 3000 total employees at 12/31/12 and they were already at a 20k unit run rate. My guess is that over half of those workers were at the Palo Alto HQ, stores, service centers and design center. Meaning, that Tesla probably had max of 1500 at the factory total. So, from end of 2012 until now Tesla has hired 1500 full-time workers at the factory? Totally doesn't make sense.

4. In the video, he says that Tesla has 3,000 workers in "Fremont, California, the Bay Area". I wonder if Elon actually said they have 3,000 workers in the Bay Area and the reporter just assumed it was all in Fremont. "2000 doing assembly", I'm curious as to what exactly Elon said. Could Elon have said they have 2000 working in vehicle production and delivery? (this includes delivery specialists, etc) Or did Elon mean that 2000 were based in Fremont and grouped the word "assembly" to mean all of Fremont factory roles?

I just wished the reporter was more clear.

In fact, when I first read the article this morning I actually emailed the reporter asking him for an interview transcript if he had one. This is because I really couldn't get much concrete detail from his article because of all the paraphrasing.

* Note: another reason why the 2000 assembly workers is fishy is because it doesn't make sense when compared to other auto factories. With 2000 assembly workers, other auto manufacturers are making hundreds of thousands a car a year (not 21k like Tesla).
 
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I'm 99% confident the reporter botched up the numbers/details. I think it's highly unlikely that Tesla goes from 3000 in the entire company to 3000 in just the factory in just 6 months... all while trying to grow gross margin as one of their major focuses.

I just emailed Tesla investor relations and press asking for clarification/confirmation.
 
It's deja vu all under again, here: read below and prepare to be startled.

Right now it is 9:04pm in Alaska; 10:04 for you West Coast types and 1am Friday on the Atlantic side.

I just pulled up the current Yahoo finance page that normally graces many of the rhs of lots of the posts....

...and...

HERE is what it shows!!!!!!!!!!!! :eek: Look at the data portion for more scary stuff! It's almost as though we just went through a 4:3 stock split!

97.08
up_g.gif
4.35(4.69%)
Jul 11, 4:00PM EDT|After Hours : 97.45
transparent-1093278.png
0.07 (0.06%)
Jul 11, 7:57PM EDT

Prev Close:122.27
Open:124.84
Bid:96.60 x 400
Ask:0.00 x 0
1y Target Est:87.36
Beta:0.54
Next Earnings Date:22-Jul-13
transparent-1093278.png
Day's Range:92.00 - 97.95
52wk Range:25.52 - 126.09
Volume:16,124,194
Avg Vol (3m):9,790,840
Market Cap:11.22B
P/E (ttm):N/A
EPS (ttm):-2.78
Div & Yield:N/A (N/A)

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I wonder how that could have happened?!?!?!?!?!?
 
What's up? Well, it was enough to get me up at 3am Alaska time....

(actually, it was a pesky mosquito. But then I saw that article.......).

My first look at the Motor Trend article suggests that MT used Autodata's 1H estimate #s as gospel, and then the SA author jumped on the bandwagon, citing MT without going to the source. It certainly does not jibe with the "significantly above 400 per week" production number that Mr Musk told Bloomberg two days ago.
 
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It's based on Autodata guesswork.
Right and basically their guesswork makes sense. They estimate 4,750 US shipments for Q1. Then subtract 500 cars headed for Europe and 100 cars for loaners and assume production does not increase. That nets you 4,150. No idea if Autodata actually did more work than this but it is a number that is basically in line with what Tesla said on the Q1 sales call. Now, I'm pretty sure the actual numbers are way better than that but it really isn't an estimate that can be considered bad news until other journalists pick it up and make up a filler story without looking into it further.
 
Right and basically their guesswork makes sense. They estimate 4,750 US shipments for Q1. Then subtract 500 cars headed for Europe and 100 cars for loaners and assume production does not increase. That nets you 4,150. No idea if Autodata actually did more work than this but it is a number that is basically in line with what Tesla said on the Q1 sales call. Now, I'm pretty sure the actual numbers are way better than that but it really isn't an estimate that can be considered bad news until other journalists pick it up and make up a filler story without looking into it further.

It only makes sense if you have been living under a rock (not you @uselesslogin, the authors of those piss-poor articles). The slightest paying of attention to 1) Elon; 2) Bloomberg; 3) TMC, all indicate that Q2 shipments will be UP from Q1, due to a delay in putting most EU cars on the boat, AND continued very strong demand. So it is apparent that the Motor Trend author is used to thinking that AutoData figures can be relied on, as perhaps they can for conventional automakers. It is also apparent that the Seeking Alpha anti-Tesla troll just saw that and ran with it, thinking it was "credible". If one reads some of his replies in the very active comment stream after the article, it is obvious that he really knows nothing about Tesla and like so many others, is relying on obsolete conventional wisdom to project gloom and doom where there is none.
 
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