Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[uselesslogin]

Everyone one on this forum is privileged. You are probably the 1% of people who has the early access to TSLA's operation, value and competition metrics. If you make the best use of those knowledge, you will look very smart to the 99% of late comers.

I hope so because I just piled in today. I did have a few before the recent run-up but I really put skin in the game today. I feel like a late comer but with any luck that won't last long.

 

[ggr]

Is the July 24 date pretty much set? When should we expect Tesla to confirm the date? Q1 was reported on May 6 so I was wondering why it is not exactly 3 months to report Q2?
Need to make plan for the July option expiration!

The only people who determine the actual date are Tesla and their accountants. Until they announce a date, everyone else is just guessing.

Generally, companies will announce as early as they can. There are two reasons for this. It instills confidence in the marketplace that they know what they're doing and are in control of everything. And it allows less time for any leaks to develop. As Tesla matures, I expect their quarterly announcements to creep earlier.

Elon seems to know a lot about timing events, and if the results are good(*), I expect he will make sure they come out before the options expiry on August 17. I doubt they can be hurried as much as July, though, the company is still doing new things like shipping overseas. Anyway, time will tell.

(*) I think consensus here on TMC is that we expect the results to be good, at least in the sense they will revise forecasts up some more, and maybe beat Wall St estimates of revenue, margin and deliveries.

 

[johnnydop]

The only people who determine the actual date are Tesla and their accountants. Until they announce a date, everyone else is just guessing.

Generally, companies will announce as early as they can. There are two reasons for this. It instills confidence in the marketplace that they know what they're doing and are in control of everything. And it allows less time for any leaks to develop. As Tesla matures, I expect their quarterly announcements to creep earlier.

Elon seems to know a lot about timing events, and if the results are good(*), I expect he will make sure they come out before the options expiry on August 17. I doubt they can be hurried as much as July, though, the company is still doing new things like shipping overseas. Anyway, time will tell.

(*) I think consensus here on TMC is that we expect the results to be good, at least in the sense they will revise forecasts up some more, and maybe beat Wall St estimates of revenue, margin and deliveries.

Beating on EPS by just a penny would be great in addition to a slightly higher revision to the yearly sales forecast perhaps to 22 or 23k.

 

[DaveT]

First time I've heard TSLA as being possibly "the stock of the century". Nice post by Curt:
Jim Cramer from Mad Money says we are a cult - Page 2

 

[aznt1217]

My new price floor is ~$160, my previous was ~$92 (the secondary offering price). After the details of the convertible notes came out yesterday, I'm fairly certain this is the case. I continue to present/talk about Elon/Tesla in my MBA classes/Work/everywhere I go and am astounded how few people in the business world know what's going on.

After my presentations I usually have a ton of questions. Although a popular stock... the company is still widely unknown to the general public. Here's a experience I had this past 4th of July weekend. Keep in mind, I don't own a Model S. I am an apartment dweller and there are no charge ports where I am nor do I have permission to install... I was talking to him about used GTRs.

GTR Owner: Want to go for a spin?
Me: Absolutely.

--After I drove the GTR -- might I add that car is awesome too.

GTR Owner: What did you think?
Me: I thought it was fantastic. I've only drove one other car that made my organs press against my spine.
GTR Owner: Really? What car was it?
Me: A Tesla Model S
GTR Owner: A What what? Spell that for me? (Takes out phone and goes to Teslamotors.com)
Me: You seriously never heard of it? I see you have a kid seat in the GTR... you should buy a model S.
GTR Owner: I have a highlander I want to replac... WOAH WHAT ARE THESE DOORS?! This is the car at the mall right? Wow I want a Model X. I'll def. check out the Model S though.
Me: You definitely should.

 

[Curt Renz]

The short interest in TSLA on June 28 is virtually unchanged from June 14, although reduced trading volume boosted the number of days to cover.

Settlement Date	Short Interest	Avg Daily Share Volume	Days To Cover
6/28/2013	19,815,686	8,152,764	2.430548
6/14/2013	19,929,119	10,040,777	1.984818
5/31/2013	18,584,615	15,751,250	1.179882
5/15/2013	23,039,956	14,757,319	1.561256

 

[jeff_adams]

My new price floor is ~$160, my previous was ~$92 (the secondary offering price). After the details of the convertible notes came out yesterday, I'm fairly certain this is the case.

Do we know the investors that purchased the bonds? Could Goldman Sachs have bought a bunch? If so, I wonder if the portfolio managers are instructed to convince investors to purchase Tesla at the price that allows conversion in Sept. In other words, it's in their best interest to pump up the stock price until after conversion.

 

[FredTMC]

TSLA up in afterhours. I assume this is as a result of fed speak and not any TM specific news

 

[DaveT]

TSLA up in afterhours. I assume this is as a result of fed speak and not any TM specific news

Futures for the market are up as well, Pre-Market Data, Stock Market Quotes, Fair Value, Futures, Volatility Index, World Markets Information - CNBC.

 

[twinklejet]

It was Nikola Tesla's birthday afterall. (July 10th)

 

[maekuz]

Do we know the investors that purchased the bonds? Could Goldman Sachs have bought a bunch? If so, I wonder if the portfolio managers are instructed to convince investors to purchase Tesla at the price that allows conversion in Sept. In other words, it's in their best interest to pump up the stock price until after conversion.

GS, Morgan Stanley and JPM bought bonds worth $60 million Tesla Motors - Current Report

 

[erha]

This might be old news and I don't know where to post it, but I just visited the Oslo tesla store and they told me that the cars to Europe were already on their way to Drammen. Maybe we will see production of EU cars in the start of each quarter, so they can realize the revenue in the same quarter as they produce the cars. This would at least be smart while tesla is on the edge of profitability quarter over quarter

 

[DonPedro]

This might be old news and I don't know where to post it, but I just visited the Oslo tesla store and they told me that the cars to Europe were already on their way to Drammen. Maybe we will see production of EU cars in the start of each quarter, so they can realize the revenue in the same quarter as they produce the cars. This would at least be smart while tesla is on the edge of profitability quarter over quarter

I think it would be a hopeless set of logistical acrobatics just to artificially enhance one quarter's earnings. You then need to repeat this for infinity, otherwise you get the hit in the quarter you stop doing it.

Remember also that the "in-transit-to-EU" effect is not very big. Delivered cars are recognised at the sales price, whilst cars in transit are recognised at their incurred production costs. So you are only deferring the margins on the 500 cars (or whatever) you have in transit.

 

[erha]

I think it would be a hopeless set of logistical acrobatics just to artificially enhance one quarter's earnings. You then need to repeat this for infinity, otherwise you get the hit in the quarter you stop doing it.

Remember also that the "in-transit-to-EU" effect is not very big. Delivered cars are recognised at the sales price, whilst cars in transit are recognised at their incurred production costs. So you are only deferring the margins on the 500 cars (or whatever) you have in transit.

I agree. Sooner or later you want to take that hit to optimize production, but I still think it could be a good idea in the few coming quarters because there is such a big psychological difference between a positive and a negative result

 

[JRP3]

I can totally see Tesla pushing that off for Q2, another good quarter following Q1 would really shore up the stock and it wouldn't look like a "fluke". Plus now with a more optimized production line in Q3 they might be able to keep volume higher and help soften the blow so to speak of shipping to Europe. If they are consistently doing 550 cars per week now that's a 25,000+ yearly rate assuming a few weeks off.

 

[maekuz]

“We’re above 400 a week at the current manpower, and not trivially above it,” Musk said yesterday in an interview @BloombergNews $TSLA

Twitter / crtrud: “We’re above 400 a week ...

 

[Lump]

I thought I read someone from TNC who did a factory tour prior to vacation mentioned they churned out 600 that week.

Tesla Model S Sedan Output Speeds Past 400 a Week: CEO - Bloomberg

Edit

Found the members post

In the Model S Delivery Dates and Sequencing thread, member evmile just posted this

The factory did 600 cars the last week of June. I got delivery Friday, June 30 th at the factory with the tour. The first week of July they will be off to retool, reconfigure and recalibrate equipment. This week they are doing European signature series so they will be painting Signature Red again as we saw during the tour. They build the European cars, then remove the battery and wheels so they can be "assembled" in Europe for a lower import duty.

Model S Delivery Dates and Sequencing - Page 269

 

[joefee]

800x52=41,600 :love:without Model X ????

Tesla Model S Sedan Output Speeds Past 400 a Week: CEO - Bloomberg


“We’re above 400 a week at the current manpower, and not trivially above it,” Musk said yesterday in an interview at the company’s Fremont, California, plant, declining to elaborate ahead of Tesla’s release of second-quarter results. In late 2014, the pace is “going to 800 a week. I’m very confident we’ll get there,” said Musk

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

This also...

This seems to me the much more important quote.

"As a wider range of battery-powered vehicles are added to Tesla’s lineup, the Fremont plant will one day return to its pre-Tesla production level of 500,000 vehicles a year, Musk said, without elaborating. That was the factory’s capacity in its GM-Toyota period.


“We going to have every kind of car you could possibly imagine,” he said. “If it moves, we’ll make it.” "




Let THAT sink in. :biggrin:

 

[FredTMC]

I can totally see Tesla pushing that off for Q2, another good quarter following Q1 would really shore up the stock and it wouldn't look like a "fluke". Plus now with a more optimized production line in Q3 they might be able to keep volume higher and help soften the blow so to speak of shipping to Europe. If they are consistently doing 550 cars per week now that's a 25,000+ yearly rate assuming a few weeks off.

yep. Exactly