Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Well, I'm glad there's a lot of people in here telling people to be cautious. The last week or so I've been concerned that maybe there was a bunch of group think going on and we were all going to end up going off a cliff together. That kind of thing happens. Now I feel appropriately warned and should be able to make more rational, less risky decisions over the next week!

I agree with short slaver, not taking risks can be as bad as taking the risk. Each time I make a trade I ask myself, will I be more disappointed if I DON'T buy this stock/call/put and I realize later I could've made a lot of money or will I be more disappointed if I DO buy it and lose my money. I then weight that feeling with how likely I think each scenario is going to happen and I make the decision one way or the other.

This talk is also why I took out a bit of money and ordered a Model S. I took out a enough that if I were to lose all my TSLA holdings that I will be left with a car payment about the same as the car it's replacing. I can afford to be somewhat risky now and if I lose it all at least I got a Model S out of it! The hard part as mentioned before is knowing when calls are priced so that it's hard if not impossible to come out ahead anymore by buying them...I don't think we are there yet.

 

[Acmykguy]

Cnbc commentator is long tsla. Should tell us something there. Steve Grasso is long TSLA

 

[nursebee]

+1 Audobon B. Even if the get rich quick option players continue to do well, many could take this as real skill in the markets and go broke with future risky plays.

Options are too expensive for me now.

 

[Runarbt]

... Each time I make a trade I ask myself, will I be more disappointed if I DON'T buy this stock/call/put and I realize later I could've made a lot of money or will I be more disappointed if I DO buy it and lose my money. I then weight that feeling with how likely I think each scenario is going to happen and I make the decision one way or the other..

My thoughts exactly.I have 332 share now, bought at $35.. and do belive Tesla in 10years can come close to/match Apple's MCAP, hence I am not selling any time soon.. It would feel a lot worse to sell now and loose out on a $400 billion MCAP in 10years+, than if TSLA misses all future targets and end up at $20.

 

[Causalien]

Ah, the great question of where we are on the ramp up curve. If you look at the stock market as a whole, the amount of people who've leveraged up like this are at most 8000 since that represent the # of members on this forum. I've actually been asking others in normal life about TSLA and most of them have heard have TSLA. On why they haven't bought TSLA shares yet, the most notable answer is: "It's too expensive". Why is it too expensive? "The stock price, the recent run up". Suggesting that retail investors hasn't really taken the dive due to the sudden increase. What they haven't been introduced to is the idea of market cap and that share prices actually doesn't matter. Mind you, these are very sane and highly skilled people like doctors, lawyers and bankers. Furthermore, I look at the amount of hedge funds that holds TSLA shares compared to AAPL (who is not a favor of the fund managers right now). TSLA is held by 38 funds while AAPL is still being held by 150+ funds. All these suggests that we haven't run out of investors. So the only risk at the moment is still that of execution and not of a bubble Do you guys know that High school students are talking about TSLA like the coolest thing? Can you imagine how popular Gen 3 will be when it comes out and coincides with these high school student graduating and getting a job?

 

[Citizen-T]

It is funny if you look back over the history of this thread. When shares were relatively cheap we all bought and sold the common shares. I think there's been such a shift to options because of the fact the prices of TSLA has quadrupled. Many of us are down to our core (long term) position and the stock is too expensive to buy enough to really capture the volatility. Option provide a way to control a lot more shares for less cash with limited downside.

I am MUCH more concerned about the people I see saying they have their retirement portfolios 50-80-100% invested in TSLA. If you only ever listen to one thing I say, listen now: DIVERSIFY.

 

[Acmykguy]

From SA...

Momentum Building


As it pertains to Tesla (TSLA) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) both stocks continue to build momentum and move higher. Tesla appears poised to break through the $130/share level while Johnson and Johnson is methodically marching towards par ($100/share). We view stories like these as bullish for the overall market as it shows continued interest in winners and a healthy distribution of interest among various risk classes. Tesla is attracting risk capital while we maintain our belief that Johnson & Johnson is one of the blue chips that is attracting new client funds. This is not day trading pushing us higher here, but rather real capital. If one wants to see what day traders are doing in this market then please take a look at some of the microcap uranium miners and uranium focused names -- that is day trader activity.


If we were to pick out one of these names for readers we would go with Johnson & Johnson at this point based off of its history of solid capital gains paired with its steady dividend increases. It is one of those names which can be a pillar of your portfolio for years to come.

 

[longtrader]

For what it is worth, I think Causalien has a valid point. When I started investing in Tesla last fall, my broker really raised some concerns about investing in it. Apparently it even made dinner conversation at her house. When she asked her high school son about it, his response was overwhelming support of the company saying it was the coolest car ever and that we should never sell it. Kids, even in Charleston, SC are talking about it. Since they are just getting their licenses, and have grown up in an age of laptops, things like range anxiety and battery life mean nothing to them. If Tesla maintain the cool factor (thank you Elon) I do believe we are just seeing the beginning. That being said, I found myself this morning looking for any deals left in the Aug. calls. I am still comfortable taking some risk.

 

[Causalien]

For what it is worth, I think Causalien has a valid point. When I started investing in Tesla last fall, my broker really raised some concerns about investing in it. Apparently it even made dinner conversation at her house. When she asked her high school son about it, his response was overwhelming support of the company saying it was the coolest car ever and that we should never sell it. Kids, even in Charleston, SC are talking about it. Since they are just getting their licenses, and have grown up in an age of laptops, things like range anxiety and battery life mean nothing to them. If Tesla maintain the cool factor (thank you Elon) I do believe we are just seeing the beginning. That being said, I found myself this morning looking for any deals left in the Aug. calls. I am still comfortable taking some risk.

Thanks, But as a disclaimer to many, I think those of us who are taking huge risks needs to explain their reasoning more so others are not disillusioned. I am in my early 30s and I can handle the hit on my portfolio. I am diversified in the sense that my real business and TSLA are in different industries (Although there seems to be a symbolic link in fortune... we'll see if it gaps up today to know for sure). I will not have to worry about shelter and food. Some other who sounds like they are going in 100% are actually only using a small part of their capital, but because they are so rich, it sounds like a lot to mere mortals. But if you are a recent grad who is about to max out your credit card to buy TSLA options.... don't. There's taking calculated risk and then there's risking to become a debt slave.

 

[kevin99]

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements

Cramer: Three Specs Powered by Lust - Yahoo! Finance

We are officially compared to Amazn and Nflx. Didn't I compare them in my articles(in my signature) two months ago? So far my view on tsla is about one month ahead of the street view Consistently. When I see the street view catches up, I will have to slow down.

 

[toastypasta]

+1 Audobon B. Even if the get rich quick option players continue to do well, many could take this as real skill in the markets and go broke with future risky plays.

Options are too expensive for me now.

+10000000000000000000
So damn true. I'm getting extremely lucky with these options and i'm very grateful and thankful but i 100% do not give the credit to myself and my skills. I don't really have much skill or experience in options. I do have average skills in stocks but not much more. I do tend to get extremely lucky and i do have a bad habit of gambling more than studying in the market. Ala day trading AIG in 08 when the market was jumping up and down 800 points a day. I also got extremely lucky playing KFN from when it was pennies to current levels and with LVS from the 20's to the 60's. I can't complain. I can be thankful.

 

[DaveT]

Cramer: Three Specs Powered by Lust - Yahoo! Finance

We are officially compared to Amazn and Nflx. Didn't I compare them in my articles(in my signature) two months ago? So far my view on tsla is about one month ahead of the street view Consistently. When I see the street view catches up, I will have to slow down.

Cramer has been comparing Tesla to Amazon for months now.

Update:
Don't mean to start an argument about Cramer (ie., his merits/failures). Just saying that his views in the article you linked to aren't new and he's expressed them before:
Cramer Quick Take: What's Driving Tesla? - TheStreet
Cramer Wowed by Tesla Test Drive

 

[Russell]

I am long, shares only. As of last week, 80% of my TSLA holdings are now 1yr old.

The past decade and a half, I didn't buy any stocks except what I got for ESPP. 2 of those, QNTM and AMAT, I ended up losing a few thousand dollars each. The 3rd, AAPL, I made close to $60k profit. If I sold at the top, it would have been close to $100k.
I put all of my profit, plus a little more, in TSLA.
TSLA has now given me more than 3x gains. Far better than what AAPL did during the same timeframe and I believe, far better than what AAPL could do in the future.

 

[Curt Renz]

The Tuesday morning hedge fund short selling bot seems to have run out of gas quickly today. Maybe it needs to become electric. :smile:

 

[kevin99]

Cramer has been comparing Tesla to Amazon for months now.

I wouldn't track just his words of mouth, that could be all over the places. Only serious article counts.

 

[Discoducky]

Tuesday morning is by far the most fun to watch the stock in the first hour of trading on a normal week, but you are right this morning the bulls won very quickly.

The Tuesday morning hedge fund short selling bot seems to have run out of gas quickly today. Maybe it needs to become electric. :smile:

 

[Convert2013]

I wouldn't track just his words of mouth, that could be all over the places. Only serious article counts.

Yeah Cramer is kind of a semi-joke. He made assumptions about Tesla without doing his research ( which is driving the car first at a minimum). He's a mouth piece for his network.

 

[Citizen-T]

I'm really surprised with the action today. I can't imagine we are going to keep doing this until earnings, I feel like we are already stretched. Where are these buyers coming from?

 

[Johan]

I'm really surprised with the action today. I can't imagine we are going to keep doing this until earnings, I feel like we are already stretched. Where are these buyers coming from?

I'm thinking the same. Is it very actively managed funds/hedge funds coming in for the first time? Big funds (like national pensjon funds etc. from all over the world) who are taking up long positions (some may have gotten TSLA in their sights after it was added to the NASDAQ-100 index lately)? Is it small retail investors? It's not day-traders so much I'd think, as the curve looks more like a rather steady climb.

 

[100thMonkey]

believe it or not, a remarkable number of folks are just now learning about Tesla, even here in the EV belt! I predict the ratio of buy and holds is going up substantially. this could get very interesting...

...Where are these buyers coming from?