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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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It's only paper profits. This only goes for financing through Tesla though. And Julian says that Tesla can estimate how much of those cars they actually expect to be returned to Tesla after 3 years. Probably not many since you will get a much better price in a private party transaction.
ShortSlaver
Member
Citizen-T
Active Member
Right, I think that is the catch that analysts haven't picked up on. Tesla gets to estimate how many cars it will have to buy. If they lease 50% of the cars, but estimate that only 10% of those will ever be returned, the impact is very minimal on EPS.
Norse
Active Member
Hope not.. However shorters are making a last effort: http://m.barrons.com/articles/BL-SWB-28893
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Hope not.. However shorters are making a last effort: http://m.barrons.com/articles/BL-SWB-28893
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Hope not.. However shorters are making a last effort: http://m.barrons.com/articles/BL-SWB-28893
During Q1 CC, Elon said half of cars are financed of which half are financed through Tesla. That is his roundabout way of saying 25% of cars are financed through Tesla.
If Tesla estimates that 40% of cars financed through Tesla are returned to them, that means that only 10% of all cars sold will be covered under lease accounting. This is the number that I modeled in.
40% sounds like a lot, but knowing Tesla I wouldn't be surprised if they used 100%, because they seem to be ultra conservative. I hope not but we will see shortly.
If Tesla estimates that 40% of cars financed through Tesla are returned to them, that means that only 10% of all cars sold will be covered under lease accounting. This is the number that I modeled in.
40% sounds like a lot, but knowing Tesla I wouldn't be surprised if they used 100%, because they seem to be ultra conservative. I hope not but we will see shortly.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Just in time for the earnings results...
http://www.engadget.com/2013/08/07/tesla-model-s-deliveries-begin-outside-north-america-oslo/
http://www.engadget.com/2013/08/07/tesla-model-s-deliveries-begin-outside-north-america-oslo/
deonb
Active Member
It is all pretty random and near-impossible to time. There are some robots that will have an advantage on you and you will be paying a bit for the round trips (brokerage fees, bid/ask spread). So it is very much like betting on black on the roulette - you will win almost as often as you lose (but if you do it long enough you are broke in the end).
ckessel said:
I cringe when I read this. Unless you are 100000000000% sure that you are fine with losing most of "everything you can afford to save", you have to diversify your position. I mean, really visualize what you will feel like if Tesla hits for instance $50 in 1-2 months. If that is "OK, no problem" and you are still just fine, then good. Otherwise, take some off the table and put it in the mattress (buy money market funds or put it in a FDIC guaranteed bank account or something).
LOL, Tesla can just do a backdoor approach (Loads of chinese parallel-imported Apple products when it was not available for sale in China..)
Or just change the chinese word slightly and drop the english name... Any truth to that article at all anyway?
mitch672
Active Member
"Rebuffed Teslas offer of $326K to buy the registered trademarks" some people will never learn, I hope he has a few million and and army of lawyers, because that's what I would do if I where Tesla.. Or just forget the Chinese market, as they are notorious for reverse engineering and making cheap knockoffs.. Sure they can do this without Tesla selling in China, but there is less incentive to do so, if they can't unload their cheap knock offs in China (cars are expensive to ship, and wouldn't pass incomming inspection in most countries customs anyway)
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http://roll.sohu.com/20130807/n383583358.shtml
Article is true. However, not sure what the impact of the litigation.
GasDoc
Member
The problem with shipping to China this way--grey market--is that the vehicle has to be approved for road use in China first before any of the imported grey market ones can be licensed for road use. No such restriction for iPods.
So Tesla will have to be street legal before individuals can start shipping cars into China.
I have a friend who sends about 400 cars, mostly BMW, Merc, Porsche SUV types into China per year.
This paints a pretty broad brush about options (at least in America). Options can be used to hedge your bet for starters, allowing you to actually lower your overall risk compared to buying stock. Personally, I don't have a lot of capital I am willing to risk, so long term options are great for me, because I can have more skin in the game. I guess your mileage may vary, but you should make it clear you are speaking of opinion and not dealing in facts, or at least clarify you are talking about weekly options.
Anyways, probably kind of off topic.
kevin99
Member
My advice to Tesla : Fight the battle, make it as big, dramatic and as long as possible. Make it the talk of households in China. The free marketing it gets will more than pay for the litigation cost. Very few Chinese know Tesla and what better introduction than this?
CyberDutchie
Active Member
50 minutes left till market close. During last 30 minutes, either we:
1. stay in $133-136 range, OR
2. drop below $132 (maybe during final 15 minutes), OR
3. trend up to $137+
Just wanted to point out the obvious.
One more possibility: $132-$133 range :biggrin:
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