I love that Elon hinted that the Hyperloop could benefit Tesla financially. Sounds like they are going to be producing batteries and drive-trains for the hyperloop vehicles. Elon is a mad genious: open source hyperloop idea and let another billionaire take all the risks and then Tesla supplies the components for the Hyperloop project.
I don't think the Hyperloop will need batteries or drive trains. It's kind of a next generation (magnetic or air suction) transport system.
Actually, I thought Elon was inferring that if nobody did anything with the Hyperloop idea after several years that Tesla could possibly take it on... and build it!
DaveT - What is your opinion on Tesla for the next few trading days, how will it act? What is your opinion on the letter and conference call? Do you think institutional clients are now going to start piling into Tesla? Do you think this is enough for a several day short squeeze?
I thought the letter and conference call was better than "very good" but below "complete blowout." I'll call it "very, very good."
- strong revenue, profit, units delivered, GM
- confident guidance for profitability in Q3/Q4, 25% GM by end of year, and 40k annualized demand by end of 2014
- Tesla is basically saying, "we're kicking ass like we said we were going to."
I guess some people would call this a complete blowout and it could be. I'm just reserving the term "complete blowout" as ER that completely demolishes everyone's expectations (ie., even ours).
Anyway, it was a confident showing of TSLA on a strong growth trajectory w/no slowing in the foreseeable future. And this is probably what TSLA investors needed the most. A second profitable quarter, re-affirming growing demand, and demonstrating near flawless execution.
Overall, I think Q2 ER is a huge boost to Tesla as a company. It de-risks the company even more to funds/institutions, especially those who are long-term buy-and-hold like Contrafund and others. I would imagine more strong fund/institution money will flow into Tesla in the coming days/weeks/months. This puts upward pressure on the stock.
Also, Q2 ER will likely discourage shorts. Now, we've got a company that's on a roll, gaining momentum, and even more LT money is flowing into the stock. I think shorts will start to capitulate more. This again puts more upward pressure on the stock. Especially, cause when they cover and there's no short to take there place, then the total # shares available decreases (since the short borrows one share and sells it to another person, the current total # shares out there is inflated at 115%). deonb pointed this out earlier.
Now, the question is how dramatic and steep will this squeeze be, if it happens.
I think part of it depends on buying pressure. If there's a ton of buying pressure tomorrow, Friday and next week, then we could see the stock shoot up... and this could motivate the shorts to cover quickly.
Sure, retailers could add that buying pressure, but I'm not sure if there's enough of them. Day traders and momo traders can too. But I'm thinking if there's a big mutual fund (ie., like Contrafund) who reads Q2 ER and says, let's up our holdings by 50%. And maybe if there's a few to several of them... that could put a lot of upward pressure on the stock. There also could be a few large private hedge funds, who want to get in the action. But if they do, they might dump the stock after it rises, thus contributing to a dip eventually.
I'd actually love to hear other people's thoughts on what the next few trading days will look like.
If I had to take a guess (and it's just a guess), I'd imagine we open in the 150s somewhere and quickly rise. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit the 160s tomorrow. I can see 170s and maybe hitting 180 next week. Who really knows? After it hits a peak, it could dip depending on how strong/weak the buyers were leading up to the peak. Also, I still think there are some very smart shorts out there who aren't shorting TSLA long-term but who have successfully shorted TSLA at certain peaks (at 97, 115, 129, 145). So even at the peak I wouldn't count out all shorts.
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