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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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I love that Elon hinted that the Hyperloop could benefit Tesla financially. Sounds like they are going to be producing batteries and drive-trains for the hyperloop vehicles. Elon is a mad genious: open source hyperloop idea and let another billionaire take all the risks and then Tesla supplies the components for the Hyperloop project.

I don't think the Hyperloop will need batteries or drive trains. It's kind of a next generation (magnetic or air suction) transport system.

Actually, I thought Elon was inferring that if nobody did anything with the Hyperloop idea after several years that Tesla could possibly take it on... and build it!

DaveT - What is your opinion on Tesla for the next few trading days, how will it act? What is your opinion on the letter and conference call? Do you think institutional clients are now going to start piling into Tesla? Do you think this is enough for a several day short squeeze?

I thought the letter and conference call was better than "very good" but below "complete blowout." I'll call it "very, very good."
- strong revenue, profit, units delivered, GM
- confident guidance for profitability in Q3/Q4, 25% GM by end of year, and 40k annualized demand by end of 2014
- Tesla is basically saying, "we're kicking ass like we said we were going to."

I guess some people would call this a complete blowout and it could be. I'm just reserving the term "complete blowout" as ER that completely demolishes everyone's expectations (ie., even ours).

Anyway, it was a confident showing of TSLA on a strong growth trajectory w/no slowing in the foreseeable future. And this is probably what TSLA investors needed the most. A second profitable quarter, re-affirming growing demand, and demonstrating near flawless execution.

Overall, I think Q2 ER is a huge boost to Tesla as a company. It de-risks the company even more to funds/institutions, especially those who are long-term buy-and-hold like Contrafund and others. I would imagine more strong fund/institution money will flow into Tesla in the coming days/weeks/months. This puts upward pressure on the stock.

Also, Q2 ER will likely discourage shorts. Now, we've got a company that's on a roll, gaining momentum, and even more LT money is flowing into the stock. I think shorts will start to capitulate more. This again puts more upward pressure on the stock. Especially, cause when they cover and there's no short to take there place, then the total # shares available decreases (since the short borrows one share and sells it to another person, the current total # shares out there is inflated at 115%). deonb pointed this out earlier.

Now, the question is how dramatic and steep will this squeeze be, if it happens.

I think part of it depends on buying pressure. If there's a ton of buying pressure tomorrow, Friday and next week, then we could see the stock shoot up... and this could motivate the shorts to cover quickly.

Sure, retailers could add that buying pressure, but I'm not sure if there's enough of them. Day traders and momo traders can too. But I'm thinking if there's a big mutual fund (ie., like Contrafund) who reads Q2 ER and says, let's up our holdings by 50%. And maybe if there's a few to several of them... that could put a lot of upward pressure on the stock. There also could be a few large private hedge funds, who want to get in the action. But if they do, they might dump the stock after it rises, thus contributing to a dip eventually.

I'd actually love to hear other people's thoughts on what the next few trading days will look like.

If I had to take a guess (and it's just a guess), I'd imagine we open in the 150s somewhere and quickly rise. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit the 160s tomorrow. I can see 170s and maybe hitting 180 next week. Who really knows? After it hits a peak, it could dip depending on how strong/weak the buyers were leading up to the peak. Also, I still think there are some very smart shorts out there who aren't shorting TSLA long-term but who have successfully shorted TSLA at certain peaks (at 97, 115, 129, 145). So even at the peak I wouldn't count out all shorts.
 
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I don't understand why anyone would want to sell in afterhours trading today. I mean geez, the company just announce a great quarter, let the shorts sweat it out a little. At least we got rid of the weakest longs during afterhours today.

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I know right? That is what surprises me most. After I posted my report here on TMC, TSLA went down for two consecutive days leading up to earnings. Pretty much everyone here who modeled Tesla's earnings independently came up with virtually the same numbers. It is truly amazing that the rest of the world didn't see this coming. Shorts are going to have to run for the hills.

And it's even more baffling because this same thing just happened 3 months ago. I'm waiting for mitch to come in to tell everyone not to sell until we hit $200. Will we be able to do this again in November?
 
And it's even more baffling because this same thing just happened 3 months ago. I'm waiting for mitch to come in to tell everyone not to sell until we hit $200. Will we be able to do this again in November?

This Mitch, as in me? $200? Why is your target set so low? I'm back up to 1/2 my original position, and I've been making money on Puts and Calls as well :). Just bought a few Aug 16th $165 calls just before the closing bell today, and I closed out my "insurance" $110 Aug 9th Puts when the stock took a dump earlier, I just knew I wouldn't need them, and they where up. I've actually made money on all 3 option plays I've done, scary :)
 
And it's even more baffling because this same thing just happened 3 months ago. I'm waiting for mitch to come in to tell everyone not to sell until we hit $200. Will we be able to do this again in November?

Could be shorts covering->selling->then re establishing a short position because once again the valuations don't make sense for Tesla. It's a poor cycle.

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Lol.. I'm a cheapskate. If this was pay to play I'd bail out.

Exceptions should be made for posters with over x amounts of value added posts. :)
 
DaveT - my guess on TSLA for the next week would be similar to yours. I think we will cross $160 tomorrow and continue going up over the next week. Tesla has several things going in its favor now:

1. It is a cult stock, and the definition of a cult stock in my book is that people who buy the stock don't sell it.
2. There is a massive short interest in TSLA at 25% float. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of short sellers came in today before earnings and might get clobbered tomorrow.
3. Dow and S&P had 3 straight down days and they are past due for a good day or week. NIKKEI up in the green early is a good sign.
4. Hyperloop announcement on Monday may actually be the best Tesla advertisement yet.

Let's hope that we get hit by a perfect storm of good news. Jobless claims numbers tomorrow morning will be very important.
 
Theshadows, can you make a complete graph when you get a chance?
Also if you can pre-fill tomorrow's price with AH price so we can see it better, unless you can also factor in Q1's after hour price and project tomorrow's close price strictly by following the curve? thanks!

Here it is with todays AH close filled in for tomorrow's. From c041v's screen shot above it looks like the day after's close was .95 higher than the release date AH close.

Screen Shot 2013-08-07 at 9.29.32 PM.png
 
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Here it is with todays AH close filled in for tomorrow's. From c041v's screen shot above it looks like the day after's close was .95 higher than the release date AH close.

View attachment 27743

TheShadows, I liked your analysis so much I copied it. Here it is with the future shown :) :

future_chart.JPG


To clarify, I am simply applying the same percentage change to todays close as the dates after the Q1 announcement.
 
Bonnie,
I wasn't joking. There is too much valuable information in here. Top contributors would get free membership.

So then do we make the thread with VIN delivery info by membership only? What about where we report any potential problems? A LOT of info from other areas of this forum have informed investment decisions. ... If there were paid memberships, where would the money go? (Remember, there are people who actually own this site.) What if some advice were wrong? Would we give money back?

Nothing on this forum stands alone, especially the investor section.
 
So then do we make the thread with VIN delivery info by membership only? What about where we report any potential problems? A LOT of info from other areas of this forum have informed investment decisions. ... If there were paid memberships, where would the money go? (Remember, there are people who actually own this site.) What if some advice were wrong? Would we give money back?

Nothing on this forum stands alone, especially the investor section.

I understand where you are coming from. It was just a thought. Money can also go to pay server costs.
 
TheShadows, I liked your analysis so much I copied it. Here it is with the future shown :) :

View attachment 27744

To clarify, I am simply applying the same percentage change to todays close as the dates after the Q1 announcement.

Im glad I have until next week to finalize our order. If your numbers are correct our 85 will turn into a P85. My finalize target was 162, if we blow past that I'm waiting until next week to finalize, hopefully the P85. :D
 
Thank you to everyone on the forum that contributed such amazing information. Esp DaveT, Curt Renz, CapitalistOppressor, sleepyhead, deonb, kevin99, Julian Cox, Citizen-T, Johan, JRP3, maekuz, Luvb2b (wherever you went), and anyone else I forgot.

The knowledge I gained from all the great analysis and feedback really helped make my strategy for earnings, and I placed my money accordingly. Thanks again.

Now the dilema on when to cash out my options..
 
Here it is with todays AH close filled in for tomorrow's. From c041v's screen shot above it looks like the day after's close was .95 higher than the release date AH close.

View attachment 27743

Nice, Thanks Theshadows. I do think the next few days could resemble Q1 run curve, but perhaps at 50% ratio. It is hard for me to picture TSLA runs anywhere close to $200, as the chart projects. Hitting $170 might be realistic.
 
Some people have suggested making this a pay site.

I think making this forum a paid site detracts from what makes it great. This site is all about making people, especially those investors who are new, excited about tesla. This site is about providing a source of more-accurate information to aid in the fight against fear and the dissemination of false information.

By providing the general public with accurate information, the price of TSLA will go up commensurate with the success of the company. By providing accurate information, a bubble in the stock is less likely to form, thus preventing serious drops that hurt us all. If you want a source of income to be derived from this site, consider investing more in the stock and then promoting your price targets here. That should be rewarding enough.

I am incredibly grateful to those who have posted useful information here, and I have tried to contribute in my own way, but I would not pay for an investing site ever.

edited to add: someone mentioned server costs. I suppose that would be acceptable, but the success of this site comes from having more people read and agree, not blocking people out.
 
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