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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Tesla is getting way too much coverage for my liking. As some people supposedly started a contra-Cramer fund (essentially doing the opposite of what Jim Cramer recommends), I always invest in the opposite of what CNBC talks about (too much). In this case it is TSLA and I feel like we are heading towards a short term peak. I hedged all of my options positions creating very low cost bull-call spreads and sold off some of my stock, but I still hold plenty of TSLA shares just in case.

I wish all of you guys the best of luck, but I don't think we are going to break $170 and stay there any time soon. If we consolidate in the $150's I might start adding some more options, but I feel like there is just too much talk about TSLA right now and this makes me very uneasy.

CNBC is very good at calling peaks and troughs, you just have to do the opposite of what they talk about. When gold was pushing $2000, they started talking about it every day non-stop; that was your signal to sell. Now they are talking about TSLA the whole time, which is a signal for me to sell.

Don't forget that we have this big Fed BS hanging over our heads. The markets are in correction mode still and I would wait till S&P 500 falls to $1,600 before getting back into this market.

Good luck to all,

sleepyhead

Feeling the same way. Sold a lot today (options and even some shares) and waiting for some sort of pull back. Of course, every time you have cash and are waiting for a pull back it never happens. Only happens when you don't have any cash on hand :)
 
Tesla is getting way too much coverage for my liking. As some people supposedly started a contra-Cramer fund (essentially doing the opposite of what Jim Cramer recommends), I always invest in the opposite of what CNBC talks about (too much). In this case it is TSLA and I feel like we are heading towards a short term peak. I hedged all of my options positions creating very low cost bull-call spreads and sold off some of my stock, but I still hold plenty of TSLA shares just in case.

I wish all of you guys the best of luck, but I don't think we are going to break $170 and stay there any time soon. If we consolidate in the $150's I might start adding some more options, but I feel like there is just too much talk about TSLA right now and this makes me very uneasy.

CNBC is very good at calling peaks and troughs, you just have to do the opposite of what they talk about. When gold was pushing $2000, they started talking about it every day non-stop; that was your signal to sell. Now they are talking about TSLA the whole time, which is a signal for me to sell.

Don't forget that we have this big Fed BS hanging over our heads. The markets are in correction mode still and I would wait till S&P 500 falls to $1,600 before getting back into this market.

Good luck to all,

sleepyhead
I think there was a lot of added media exposure because Tesla wanted it with the NHTSA safety ratings. Elon let Betty Liu (Bloomberg/Nightline) into his house for an interview and Phil LeBeau (CNBC) got to spend a couple days in the factory. They filmed a bunch of clips and those aired this week. It was very smart of Elon/Tesla to arrange this this week... safety rating press release, followed by lots of media coverage. But I think what accentuates things is that TSLA hit an all time closing high yesterday and today, so the CNBC and others love talking up stocks that are on a tear.

But nevertheless, the crazy ride these past two days (from $148 to $160+) has got my brain rolling with a lot of thoughts that I'll need to process over the weekend. I see both a lot of strength shown these past two days, but it's risen so fast there are now additional risks.
 
Feeling the same way. Sold a lot today (options and even some shares) and waiting for some sort of pull back. Of course, every time you have cash and are waiting for a pull back it never happens. Only happens when you don't have any cash on hand :)

True that. I had to re-enter sooner than expected. I usually find myself trapped if I hold on for too long after re-entry. But the support level, if the big funds dare, is to maintain the stock price higher than $161.88 for 4 weeks, so I think I have better chance of not getting stuck.
 
Any stock analysts price in the emotional value of a stock? If they price only by rational value then even $40 was questionable as recent as April.

Tesla is game-changing, it is a revolution in transport happening in front of our eyes, it is the future, clear as day, to more and more each passing hour.

Every 500 new buyers each week, well they just dropped at least 70K on a car, and if they can do that they got a few bucks in their portfolio to play with, they see how Tesla (car and company) operates, they put that dough in the stock. 500 per week. And many regular folks right here in the USA don't know what Tesla is, still. 500 per week, and all their friends and neighbors, spreading the word. With current paltry awareness in EU and AP, for now.


High School kids are begging their parents to open trading accounts so they can just purchase a few shares, because they want to be in on this. College kids have Elon Musk posters on their walls next to Einstein. Regardless of anyone's opinion of whether deserved or not, this is happening.

A few players hold a large percentage of the shares. Alot of others are buying and holding for the long term no matter the nosebleed valuations.

They want to see this happen. They want to see America be #1 in automobiles again, which it hasn't been for most of our lifetimes. It's like fanning the flame, setting more and more kindling around around the spark because they don't want to see it extinguished.

How many boxy Volvo's were sold from the 80's onward solely because of the safety reputation? Tesla owns that demo now, and the Model S is a beauty.

Young, old, male, female, rich, poor, there is NO demographic that doesn't want this car, and the ideas behind it.

The stock is not really a stock, it is more like a Kickstarter campaign to get us off of fossil fuels and onto renewables. Each stock certificate should come with a button that says "I'm with Elon!"

We quadrupled our modest investment in the four months since April when we bought in. I wanted to sell at 120. My wife refused. She wants to ride it all the way - not to riches, mind you, but to success. We're with Elon.
 
Tesla is getting way too much coverage for my liking. As some people supposedly started a contra-Cramer fund (essentially doing the opposite of what Jim Cramer recommends), I always invest in the opposite of what CNBC talks about (too much). In this case it is TSLA and I feel like we are heading towards a short term peak. I hedged all of my options positions creating very low cost bull-call spreads and sold off some of my stock, but I still hold plenty of TSLA shares just in case.

I wish all of you guys the best of luck, but I don't think we are going to break $170 and stay there any time soon. If we consolidate in the $150's I might start adding some more options, but I feel like there is just too much talk about TSLA right now and this makes me very uneasy.

CNBC is very good at calling peaks and troughs, you just have to do the opposite of what they talk about. When gold was pushing $2000, they started talking about it every day non-stop; that was your signal to sell. Now they are talking about TSLA the whole time, which is a signal for me to sell.

Don't forget that we have this big Fed BS hanging over our heads. The markets are in correction mode still and I would wait till S&P 500 falls to $1,600 before getting back into this market.

Good luck to all,

sleepyhead

agree with sleepy. Just sold march 14 190 calls against my march 14 155 calls for a near risk free bull call spread. Risk is $1.50 with potential reward of $33.50 if tsla finishes above 190 in march. I will keep the cash raised from selling the calls in reserve until tsla corrects and will look to deploy at that time.
 
I'm glad I was dead wrong about TSLA pulling back, consolidating a little, and closing between between 153-155. I'm very happy to see 160 broken and close above that. We will all have to watch TSLA like a hawk for the next two weeks, 170 here we come!

- - - Updated - - -

Looks like the official close is at 161.839.
 
all this cold feet talk as me worried. my friend just sold his 200 shares today that he has held since the 30s. if all of us long term bulls start bailing like this, then yes the stock is going to just start getting more weak. i will admit i sold a few of my small potion calls today, but i am still holding on to my largest tsla holding. if we do get a pull back into the 150s i will be sure to buy those small calls back.

i made a similar play on facebook stock today as well.
 
I'm glad I was dead wrong about TSLA pulling back, consolidating a little, and closing between between 153-155. I'm very happy to see 160 broken and close above that. We will all have to watch TSLA like a hawk for the next two weeks, 170 here we come!

- - - Updated - - -

Looks like the official close is at 161.839.

I'm glad my prediction was wrong too about falling back into $150s. Too bad that TSLA has to start day 1 of above $161.88 at least tomorrow and not today.
 
I'm glad my prediction was wrong too about falling back into $150s. Too bad that TSLA has to start day 1 of above $161.88 at least tomorrow and not today.


Well look at it like this, where we are now is a good starting point to go higher for the 20 out of 30 days closing above 161.88. I think we'll climb very fast to 170 with a lot of volatility between 160-170 for the next month.

Personally, I just set an 8 point trailing stop as of today's close. I'm a little torn about tightening that stop to maximize profit or loosening it up so I don't get stopped out of my position.
 
Any stock analysts price in the emotional value of a stock? If they price only by rational value then even $40 was questionable as recent as April.

Tesla is game-changing, it is a revolution in transport happening in front of our eyes, it is the future, clear as day, to more and more each passing hour.

Every 500 new buyers each week, well they just dropped at least 70K on a car, and if they can do that they got a few bucks in their portfolio to play with, they see how Tesla (car and company) operates, they put that dough in the stock. 500 per week. And many regular folks right here in the USA don't know what Tesla is, still. 500 per week, and all their friends and neighbors, spreading the word. With current paltry awareness in EU and AP, for now.


High School kids are begging their parents to open trading accounts so they can just purchase a few shares, because they want to be in on this. College kids have Elon Musk posters on their walls next to Einstein. Regardless of anyone's opinion of whether deserved or not, this is happening.

A few players hold a large percentage of the shares. Alot of others are buying and holding for the long term no matter the nosebleed valuations.

They want to see this happen. They want to see America be #1 in automobiles again, which it hasn't been for most of our lifetimes. It's like fanning the flame, setting more and more kindling around around the spark because they don't want to see it extinguished.

How many boxy Volvo's were sold from the 80's onward solely because of the safety reputation? Tesla owns that demo now, and the Model S is a beauty.

Young, old, male, female, rich, poor, there is NO demographic that doesn't want this car, and the ideas behind it.

The stock is not really a stock, it is more like a Kickstarter campaign to get us off of fossil fuels and onto renewables. Each stock certificate should come with a button that says "I'm with Elon!"

We quadrupled our modest investment in the four months since April when we bought in. I wanted to sell at 120. My wife refused. She wants to ride it all the way - not to riches, mind you, but to success. We're with Elon.

Well said MarkH! My hat off to you!
 
Absolutely amazing that the stock market works like this to come within a penny or two of the convert price. This has to be much more 'man' than 'machine' right?

Sometimes I think somewhere someone has a computer and a piece of software with an interface such as this:

setprice.jpg
 
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