I completely forgot about the whole bond conversion ordeal. I personally have decided its a non-issue but like you said, that wont stop the shorts from spewing the usual BS. I suspect the next few days will be rocky, but honestly I don't seem as worried about it. We still closed over 180 today which is phenomenal! If we pull back into the low 170s or even the 160s again, I for one will be going all in. I'm about as sure as you can be that we will see this break 200 by the end of this year, and I will gladly scoop up some shares for 20% off.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I completely forgot about the whole bond conversion ordeal. I personally have decided its a non-issue but like you said, that wont stop the shorts from spewing the usual BS. I suspect the next few days will be rocky, but honestly I don't seem as worried about it. We still closed over 180 today which is phenomenal! If we pull back into the low 170s or even the 160s again, I for one will be going all in. I'm about as sure as you can be that we will see this break 200 by the end of this year, and I will gladly scoop up some shares for 20% off.
Can somebody help me out with something regarding LEAPS?
I ran some numbers buying the same dollar amounts of Jan15 calls with strike prices of 130, 200, and 250 and with an increase in the stock price from today of $30, and using the listed deltas as multiplying factors.
My numbers after that mythical stock rise of $30 nets a profit for each strike price of:
The 130's $3592
The 200's $4733
The 250's $5466
Everybody talks about buying the deep in the money long term calls.
Am I missing something?
And I just realized I should have asked in the newbie forum, sorry about that.
I ran some numbers buying the same dollar amounts of Jan15 calls with strike prices of 130, 200, and 250 and with an increase in the stock price from today of $30, and using the listed deltas as multiplying factors.
My numbers after that mythical stock rise of $30 nets a profit for each strike price of:
The 130's $3592
The 200's $4733
The 250's $5466
Everybody talks about buying the deep in the money long term calls.
Am I missing something?
And I just realized I should have asked in the newbie forum, sorry about that.
You probably left out paying the strike price when finally exercising the LEAPS and only considered the initial premium price. A rise of $30 from today doesn't even reach $250, so that LEAP has zero payout on a $30 rise.
Option calls will expire worthless if they're not above the strike price at expiration. So there's less risk of this happening with deep itm calls. But as a trade off you wont get less gain when the stock rises compared to the otm calls.
The LEAPS gains in value like any option. I'm not sure how you determine how much it grows since both stock value and time value factor in.
Then you wouldn't need to worry the option calls expiring worthless. You'd get the greatest gain if you could time the one-day $30 gain with shortest term otm calls possible (ie., buying day before and selling next day).
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$30 X delta X #of options
Say the $30 rise was in one or two days. Should the deep in the money leap always appreciate more than out of the money calls with same expiration date?
If so, why would anyone buy a, say, Jan15 call near the money.
My apologies if I'm sounding stupid.
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OK, thanks DaveT
Say the $30 rise was in one or two days. Should the deep in the money leap always appreciate more than out of the money calls with same expiration date?
If so, why would anyone buy a, say, Jan15 call near the money.
My apologies if I'm sounding stupid.
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OK, thanks DaveT
The best way to learn options is to actually trade them. Even if it means making paper trades with an Excel spreadsheet.
I would recommend that you "buy" (i.e. "trade" them in Excel) a few different options and then track them to see how they perform.
To answer your question, deep OTM options will likely have a lot higher percentage gain tomorrow if the underlying stock went up 30% tomorrow. On the other hand if the 30% doesn't happen until sometime in the future then the deep OTM options will not outperform as much as if it happened tomorrow. If it happens too late (i.e. too close to expiration) the deep OTM options may not move much at all since they are already doomed to expire worthless.
Deep OTM options make sense if you think that the stock will move up a lot in a short period of time. If this is the case though then you might just be better off buying ATM weeklies.
I would recommend that you "buy" (i.e. "trade" them in Excel) a few different options and then track them to see how they perform.
To answer your question, deep OTM options will likely have a lot higher percentage gain tomorrow if the underlying stock went up 30% tomorrow. On the other hand if the 30% doesn't happen until sometime in the future then the deep OTM options will not outperform as much as if it happened tomorrow. If it happens too late (i.e. too close to expiration) the deep OTM options may not move much at all since they are already doomed to expire worthless.
Deep OTM options make sense if you think that the stock will move up a lot in a short period of time. If this is the case though then you might just be better off buying ATM weeklies.
Like most people in this forum, I'd like to see 200 as well but I think 200 this week is really wishful thinking. Don't forget the overall market and economic conditions that we're on the cusp of experiencing.
I've found this site very helpful in modelling calls (and other options) at different prices. Can be lots of fun to try all kinds of different things. Also, my bank allows you to open up a practice account with full option trading. It starts out with $100k and you get to play with it and get a feel for different strategies. It's been super helpful for me to learn that way. You really need to see how the value of your choices changes over time as the stock goes up and down and time factors into things, etc.
every week we hear about overall market and yada yada yada and still the market is up and up.
what changed in the economic condition since thursday when we saw a record breaking in SPY? nothing
what changed in TSLA compare to friday when we saw it climbing like a ballon? nothing
it's just psychology and height fear
maybe 200 won't happen this week but still i do expect gains this week in TSLA after breaking a big resistance last week.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Using those paper money accounts might be better if you "throw away" what you yourself wouldn't be investing. That way the fees are more realistic. If you are starting with $5k, invest the 95k in something you know will expire worthless. Then start with your 5k and see what you can more realistically do.
We won't be seeing 200 till we have at the very least another beat in Q3 (which many of us suspect is coming). The street and skeptics need to see more quarters of execution to have the valuations make sense, which is part of the reason for last weeks Deutsche Bank target raise.
The overall market is shaken these days depending on what I happening with the future prospects of the fed and what not. I suspect we'll be staying in this range with a bottom of $170 (which is when I'm rolling into Nov. calls).
Beyond a Q3 beat, in the short run, a huge catalyst would be some news on Model X progress which is what I would suspect for the EOY results.
The overall market is shaken these days depending on what I happening with the future prospects of the fed and what not. I suspect we'll be staying in this range with a bottom of $170 (which is when I'm rolling into Nov. calls).
Beyond a Q3 beat, in the short run, a huge catalyst would be some news on Model X progress which is what I would suspect for the EOY results.
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