Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[sleepyhead]

I believe they were only taking reservations for Hong Kong, IIRC.

I think they started taking reservations in China in August:

Tesla starts taking pre-orders in China, makes new home on Weibo

I don't know where these articles are coming from that Tesla started taking reservations in China this week? Anybody know why? Media is so far behind on Tesla that it isn't even funny anymore.

I don't know if I should be buying options now when I figure out that TSLA is going to go up; or if I should wait about 4 weeks and buy options because I know it will take Wall St. 4 weeks to figure out what we already know. Geez.

 

[joefee]

I think they started taking reservations in China in August:

Tesla starts taking pre-orders in China, makes new home on Weibo

I don't know where these articles are coming from that Tesla started taking reservations in China this week...Media is so far behind on Tesla that it isn't even funny anymore.

The only thing funnier is TSLA analysts who don’t have a clue

 

[Norse]

I think they started taking reservations in China in August:

Tesla starts taking pre-orders in China, makes new home on Weibo

I don't know where these articles are coming from that Tesla started taking reservations in China this week? Anybody know why? Media is so far behind on Tesla that it isn't even funny anymore.

I don't know if I should be buying options now when I figure out that TSLA is going to go up; or if I should wait about 4 weeks and buy options because I know it will take Wall St. 4 weeks to figure out what we already know. Geez.

I tried to "order" a model S from every different country in August to see how long the waiting list was in the different countries. I cant remember that China and Hong Kong had separate option, as they do now. I think I could only order from Hong Kong, so I guess the rest of China is now added.

 

[sleepyhead]

I tried to "order" a model S from every different country in August to see how long the waiting list was in the different countries. I cant remember that China and Hong Kong had separate option, as they do now. I think I could only order from Hong Kong, so I guess the rest of China is now added.

Hong Kong was way before China

 

[Norse]

Hong Kong was way before China

Yes, thats what Im saying. I cant remember seeing China as an option in August. There is also still no delivery date in China. Hong Kong however starts delivering in spring 2014

 

[sleepyhead]

Yes, thats what Im saying. I cant remember seeing China as an option in August. There is also still no delivery date in China. Hong Kong however starts delivering in spring 2014

Hong Kong was long before August. Here you go, Tesla started taking orders in China in August:

Tesla begins selling the Model S in China - Aug. 22, 2013

 

[Norse]

Hong Kong was long before August. Here you go, Tesla started taking orders in China in August:

Tesla begins selling the Model S in China - Aug. 22, 2013

I guess I checked before 22 August then

 

[MartinAustin]

I see that TSLA continued slightly upwards in after-hours trading, and someone bought 250 shares at $179.99.

 

[ShortSlaver]

Hey guys,

Just want to say hi! Haven't posted lately much at all - busy traveling a lot for work but also just don't have a big position in TSLA anymore. Was a thrill going from 30's to this insane level and happy I shared it with all of you this year. I remember discussions about "I'd sell if it gets to 170" or whatever - and that's pretty much what I did. I'm still not sure how it happened so fast and as Curt Rentz here said "It's a once in a lifetime stock" and he was right. I think it has changed a lot of lives here and although I can't retire or anything, I have a lot more security going forward.

I still lurk and will continue to. Just wanted to give a shout out to all of you, and you know who you are, for being there through all the rapid ups and downs and for believing in this thing together and for the great benefit it has brought us. I learned a ton about stocks, options (ha, I thought it would always be as easy as it was with TSLA!!) and being patient with these things. Thank you all for being you.

 

[brianman]

I suspect some of the shorts who jumped on earlier this week will be closing their positions for the weekend ?

I'm still working with relatively small funding, but in case it's interesting....

My data points:
(A) 2013/10/03 NOV 16 $200 CALL BUY 10 @ $8.00
(B) 2013/10/09 NOV 16 $200 CALL BUY 10 @ $6.25
(B) 2013/10/11 NOV 16 $200 CALL SELL 10 @ $7.70
(A) 2013/10/11 NOV 16 $200 CALL SELL 10 @ $8.15

The (B) set was a no brainer "profit on the table, grab it in case the political drama pendulum swings again."
I don't have a good feel for what's coming on Monday so I closed out the (A) set with a very modest profit (even with the fees).

I'll probably make a move or two on Monday based on how the market behaves at the opening.

(22% profit in 2 days for the B set, and < 1% profit in just over a week for the A set)

 

[sleepyhead]

Hey guys,

Just want to say hi! Haven't posted lately much at all - busy traveling a lot for work but also just don't have a big position in TSLA anymore. Was a thrill going from 30's to this insane level and happy I shared it with all of you this year. I remember discussions about "I'd sell if it gets to 170" or whatever - and that's pretty much what I did. I'm still not sure how it happened so fast and as Curt Rentz here said "It's a once in a lifetime stock" and he was right. I think it has changed a lot of lives here and although I can't retire or anything, I have a lot more security going forward.

I still lurk and will continue to. Just wanted to give a shout out to all of you, and you know who you are, for being there through all the rapid ups and downs and for believing in this thing together and for the great benefit it has brought us. I learned a ton about stocks, options (ha, I thought it would always be as easy as it was with TSLA!!) and being patient with these things. Thank you all for being you.

I hope you start posting again. I think that TSLA is only getting started and there is still a lot of easy money to be made. Some is very easy money like this past week.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

That's what I was thinking...The game is far from over! It's just not as "easy" as it was a few months ago.

 

[sleepyhead]

That's what I was thinking...The game is far from over! It's just not as "easy" as it was a few months ago.

It's easy if you buy shares. If you already made a lot on options then buy shares now and enjoy the ride. You can still get a 3 bagger in 3-5 years time. There is plenty of room for TSLA to run.

Might be a lot harder to make money on options though since you won't see the stock doubling in a manner of days or even weeks. It will be a gradual rise for now on.

Although I still predict one more big jump in TSLA's near future. It is going too well for the company to sell now.

If you are selling because you are afraid of some unforeseen event and want to diversify then you can instead buy weekly deep otm put options for protection on the cheap while the stock continues going up and you make money on shares.

 

[Jack6591]

I flew into LAX the other night, just after dusk. It always startles the millions of lights twinkling in the LA basin. The smokestacks of the south-bay refineries. The river of automobile headlights flowing down the 405. That imagery, strikes me in two ways. First, there is a target-rich environment for the solar electric economy. Secondly, the conversion to renewable energy, LED lighting, and electric cars will be one hell of a battle. Settle in, it's just beginning.

 

[DaveT]

It's easy if you buy shares. If you already made a lot on options then buy shares now and enjoy the ride. You can still get a 3 bagger in 3-5 years time. There is plenty of room for TSLA to run.

Might be a lot harder to make money on options though since you won't see the stock doubling in a manner of days or even weeks. It will be a gradual rise for now on.

Although I still predict one more big jump in TSLA's near future. It is going to well for the company to sell now.

If you are selling because you are afraid of some unforeseen event and want to diversify then you can instead buy weekly deep otm options for protection on the cheap while the stock continues going up and you make money on shares.

Buying TSLA shares under $200 is a great long-term play IMO. Momentum will continue to build (although with ups and downs) as we march toward Gen III. And with common stock you can sit through any major corrections that come along keeping your eyes on the prize (Gen III and beyond).

I also agree on a major jump in TSLA's near future. I think it could come if TSLA gives blowout FY 2014 guidance of 35k+ cars at Q3 ER. Or in Q3 ER they show a surprise gross margin of 22% (excluding ZEV credits). Or it could be later when they announce 25% gross margin achieved for Q4.

 

[sleepyhead]

Buying TSLA shares under $200 is a great long-term play IMO. Momentum will continue to build (although with ups and downs) as we march toward Gen III. And with common stock you can sit through any major corrections that come along keeping your eyes on the prize (Gen III and beyond).

I also agree on a major jump in TSLA's near future. I think it could come if TSLA gives blowout FY 2014 guidance of 35k+ cars at Q3 ER. Or in Q3 ER they show a surprise gross margin of 22% (excluding ZEV credits). Or it could be later when they announce 25% gross margin achieved for Q4.

For Wall St. that is blowout for me that is meh. I think they are going to do 50,000 cars next year. I know they won't guide for that number but they will make close to that many cars.

Maybe they guide 35k in q3 and then up it to 40k in Q4 and then deliver 12,000 in Q1. We will see, exciting times ahead.

 

[DaveT]

For Wall St. that is blowout for me that is meh. I think they are going to do 50,000 cars next year. I know they won't guide for that number but they will make close to that many cars.

Maybe they guide 35k in q3 and then up it to 40k in Q4 and then deliver 12,000 in Q1. We will see, exciting times ahead.

Wow. 50k cars next year? That would mean they would have to average 1000 cars per week (ie, 700 cars/week in beginning of year and 1300 cars/week toward end of year). Elon has said they'll reach 800 cars/week by end of next year (sandbagging, being conservative, or are there supply constraints?).

I think demand for 50k cars next year is there (ie, 20k north america, 20k europe, 10k asia). The question is if Tesla can produce that many cars. As long as the supply chain issues are resolved then they should be able to. Also, Elon did mention they'll test the depths of Model S demand next year.

If they announce even 40k guidance for next year, I think we'll probably never see a sub-$200 TSLA price again.

I guess we'll have to look for clues at Q3 ER regarding how their production ramping is going, and see what kind of initial FY 2014 guidance they give.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Hey guys,

Just want to say hi! Haven't posted lately much at all - busy traveling a lot for work but also just don't have a big position in TSLA anymore. Was a thrill going from 30's to this insane level and happy I shared it with all of you this year. I remember discussions about "I'd sell if it gets to 170" or whatever - and that's pretty much what I did. I'm still not sure how it happened so fast and as Curt Rentz here said "It's a once in a lifetime stock" and he was right. I think it has changed a lot of lives here and although I can't retire or anything, I have a lot more security going forward.

I still lurk and will continue to. Just wanted to give a shout out to all of you, and you know who you are, for being there through all the rapid ups and downs and for believing in this thing together and for the great benefit it has brought us. I learned a ton about stocks, options (ha, I thought it would always be as easy as it was with TSLA!!) and being patient with these things. Thank you all for being you.

Hi am curious what is your largest position now and why have you dramatically reduced your tesla position if you don't mind sharing

 

[tftf]

Haven't posted lately much at all - busy traveling a lot for work but also just don't have a big position in TSLA anymore. Was a thrill going from 30's to this insane level and happy I shared it with all of you this year. I remember discussions about "I'd sell if it gets to 170" or whatever - and that's pretty much what I did. I'm still not sure how it happened so fast and as Curt Rentz here said "It's a once in a lifetime stock" and he was right.

A very reasonable thing to do at $150-170. Especially when looking at the stock market as a whole since March 2009, monetary stimulus, cheap money from the FED drying up one day (2014-2015?) and the state of the world economy.

 

[blakegallagher]

Hey guys,

Just want to say hi! Haven't posted lately much at all - busy traveling a lot for work but also just don't have a big position in TSLA anymore. Was a thrill going from 30's to this insane level and happy I shared it with all of you this year. I remember discussions about "I'd sell if it gets to 170" or whatever - and that's pretty much what I did. I'm still not sure how it happened so fast and as Curt Rentz here said "It's a once in a lifetime stock" and he was right. I think it has changed a lot of lives here and although I can't retire or anything, I have a lot more security going forward.

I still lurk and will continue to. Just wanted to give a shout out to all of you, and you know who you are, for being there through all the rapid ups and downs and for believing in this thing together and for the great benefit it has brought us. I learned a ton about stocks, options (ha, I thought it would always be as easy as it was with TSLA!!) and being patient with these things. Thank you all for being you.

Been missing your post but glad that you are still lurking and glad that you still have a small position in TSLA .... small positions have a way of turning into larger ones with this company as I know you know .