Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[jshintak]

Fighting above $172 now. If it breaks out above how high will it go today?

 

[kevin99]

The price action is quite bearish, especially considering today's good news. Only one thing can explain this: the big players are selling into any strength.

In normal case I will move along with the market, However the Q3 is impending. The big players have been wrong before, and may not be right this time either.

I am more or less taking a stance, and reduce size. Worst case is I will have to hold it for a long while, changing my strategy.

I am still finding the solid support at 160, with a brief moment of breach:

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[Moderator: post split; the other part went here]

It certainly feels great taking a goal line stance last week when it was in $160-155, threatening the $160 support level I've been holding. I was planning to write a piece before Q3 but the market beats me in move today by going above $170. Nevertheless, here is what I see Q3 and my positions:

Tesla Q3 Earning Prediction | Investnaire: Focused Investing to Millionaire

 

[hershey101]

we are looking to break out of the top of the downward channel that we have been in... I'm not sure how I feel about that. But if we close above $174, and don't come down a lot tomorrow then it looks like clear skies to ATH. Don't see any downward pressure on Wed.

 

[gym7rjm]

This trendline today is unbreakable! If it continues, where does that put us at close today chartists?

 

[hershey101]

This trendline today is unbreakable! If it continues, where does that put us at close today chartists?

I'm looking at +1/hr... so ~$176-$177?

 

[RobotGrease]

This trendline today is unbreakable! If it continues, where does that put us at close today chartists?

Im going to say IMHO, there's no way we close above the red channel ~175. If we do, this might set us up for a buy the rumor, sell the news.

 

[hoang51]

Honestly, it looks to me that it's already a buy on the rumor, sell on the news. The volume looks about average, with about 1 hour left for trading. There isn't a massive short covering, which is something nice to see.

 

[carrerascott]

What do you think the chances are of getting a dip before tomorrow afternoon? It's basically gone straight up all day today.

 

[FANGO]

What do you think the chances are of getting a dip before tomorrow afternoon? It's basically gone straight up all day today.

Looks like the "dip" is happening right now. Buy quick, last chance.

 

[hoang51]

What do you think the chances are of getting a dip before tomorrow afternoon? It's basically gone straight up all day today.

I'm thinking that there will be a dip tomorrow due to the run up today with average volume.

 

[InTheShadows]

What do you think the chances are of getting a dip before tomorrow afternoon? It's basically gone straight up all day today.

I think if it starts to drop it could be a quick drop because of all the stop loss orders getting hit. None of them have executed all day because of the run up.

 

[hershey101]

So that uptrend got broken out of.... I agree, if we close above $175 thats probably not a good sign.. I'm hedging for now

 

[arashlzy]

Honestly, it looks to me that it's already a buy on the rumor, sell on the news. The volume looks about average, with about 1 hour left for trading. There isn't a massive short covering, which is something nice to see.

If this isn't a massive short covering, then we are bound to see one soon, maybe tomorrow?

 

[ckessel]

It certainly feels great taking a goal line stance last week when it was in $160-155, threatening the $160 support level I've been holding. I was planning to write a piece before Q3 but the market beats me in move today by going above $170. Nevertheless, here is what I see Q3 and my positions:

Tesla Q3 Earning Prediction | Investnaire: Focused Investing to Millionaire

So, if TSLA reaches your 175-185 pre-earnings, would you think the better trade is to sell near the end of tomorrow to take advantage of the high IV? If it's short of that range, then hold and see what happens post-earnings?

 

[Cameron]

Im going to say IMHO, there's no way we close above the red channel ~175. If we do, this might set us up for a buy the rumor, sell the news.

Wow, it really is getting pinched between the blue and red channel, with tomorrow being the deciding factor of its direction! Just based of this chart it looks like we dip to ~172 tomorrow then either to 150 or 200+ By the end of the week.

 

[justthateasy]

I got back into TSLA in the mid-150s last week. Though I wasn't expecting the rocket we're seeing now, I have to admit that it is a welcome surprise the day before earnings.

Based off today's price action, I expect TSLA to finish below 170, say around 168. Tomorrow will be tricky however. Originally, I was thinking that being around 180 before earnings would be a bad thing as being at 180+ could be seen as having earnings expectations priced in and any "miss" interpreted by the street would spark a bloodbath. However, reports of Tesla ramping up production surfaced over the weekend and now that it's being discussed here and if Tesla features the ramp up during the conference call and actually guides higher, being in the 180s should be no issue.

I do expect to see some selling off/profit taking throughout the day tomorrow prior to earnings. If we do see TSLA rocketing tomorrow, a part of me is still a little weary of the price action after hours and we might get AAPL'd no matter how good earnings is. But since we're getting indications of possibly higher guidance, we'll be just fine this time Wednesday.

I need to update where I think we'll close today. At this point it's looking like we'll definitely be above that 168 I said earlier, probably comfortably above 171.50.

Today's price action has been surprising to say the least. That leaves us with tomorrow. I'm still confident about seeing some sell off going into earnings due to nervousness and people wanting to get out of the way after the market closes. Even though I have revised what I said about being in the 180s prior to earnings release due to news about a ramp up in production, today's price action has me worried if we see TSLA nearing ATH tomorrow because it might be a case of "buy the rumor, sell the news" no matter how well Tesla reports for Q3 and we'll end up getting AAPL'd this quarter.

 

[aznt1217]

We won't see an ATH tomorrow. That's almost guaranteed. Too many people betting the other way.

 

[kevin99]

So, if TSLA reaches your 175-185 pre-earnings, would you think the better trade is to sell near the end of tomorrow to take advantage of the high IV? If it's short of that range, then hold and see what happens post-earnings?

When it reached $175 earlier, I did play safe by rolling some of the put further out, thus reduce the delta. Now I was able to re-balance my portfolio, getting the the price to fall in between my positions. ITM options is never a good thing for a short position, I rather to be OTM.

By reaching $175, TSLA is already having a block buster day like earning day.

This could signal the reversal of sentiment from the bearish Oct.

 

[MartinAustin]

We won't see an ATH tomorrow. That's almost guaranteed. Too many people betting the other way.

Well, the earnings are released after the market closes anyway. Unless you're including extended hours trading.

Looks like $175 was enough for some people and they decided to sell. Good luck to 'em, that's what I say.

TSLA's all time high is $194.50 which is $20 over what it's at now. IMO it's got a great chance of getting back to that zone after the ER.

 

[chicagotsla]

Well, the earnings are released after the market closes anyway. Unless you're including extended hours trading.

Looks like $175 was enough for some people and they decided to sell. Good luck to 'em, that's what I say.

TSLA's all time high is $194.50 which is $20 over what it's at now. IMO it's got a great chance of getting back to that zone after the ER.

Agreed, $194.50 after ER. TSLA has yet to have a blow-off top, and I see a move over $200, selling back to $150's. I think now is the time that this happens. Bets placed, will see what happens.

Long NOV $180