Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[brianstorms]

This NY Times article looks very suspicious to me. *Detroit*-based journalist claims Tesla guided DOWN its 2013 yearly total deliveries number from 25,000 to 21,500 today. I have never heard such official guidance and have watched the company like a hawk.

"Lowers Sales Outlook" in the headline. WTF!?

Story here: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/06/business/tesla-posts-smaller-loss-but-lowers-sales-outlook.html

 

[sub]

I read that too, total BS. Elon has stated a 25k build rate, not 25k produced for the year. It's either an intentional lie or a misunderstanding by a moron. Either way, people that don't know tesla won't know the difference.

 

[FluxCap]

intentional lie

As I said earlier, OPEC and the ICE industry aren't going to roll over and die, and they smelled blood tonight. Buying news and paying off journalists for negative pressure is just par for the course. I would expect nothing less from the most powerful monied interests on the planet.

Doesn't mean they will win though. Just means they will keep trying.

Anyone got a contact at the NYT?

 

[kenliles]

I want to point out though that AAPL's rise was neither fast nor smooth. It took about a decade, from the original iPod, to the iPhone 4S, for AAPL to realize the kind of furious share growth that would lead to a 50-70x return for a very patient investor.

AAPL also faced huge challenges in scaling up production. An iPhone is obviously less complex than a Model S, but it was no cakewalk for Apple to secure millions of leading edge components like Retina displays.

Those are good points and true. Because they did scale relatively fast they now command some 50% of the market. The difference is that Tesla can never scale fast enough to capture that kind of market position nor could any auto manufacturer. Tesla has fantastic potential but Apple like multiples are not part of that potential IMO.

 

[Bunky]

As I said earlier, OPEC and the ICE industry aren't going to roll over and die, and they smelled blood tonight. Buying news and paying off journalists for negative pressure is just par for the course. I would expect nothing less from the most powerful monied interests on the planet.

Doesn't mean they will win though. Just means they will keep trying.

Anyone got a contact at the NYT?

You can contact the author on twitter @jaclyntrop

Tired of this BS.

 

[brianstorms]

You can contact the author on twitter @jaclyntrop

Tired of this BS.

I emailed Jaclyn the (Detroit-based) writer, as well as Dean Murphy, NYT Business editor demanded a correction.

 

[d1stance]

I wonder if we'll see similar behavior to what happened with Trip Advisor - good earnings report, in line with earnings (though not great beat), excellent user/visitor numbers increase, but the stock tanked the next day. Since then, it has gone to a new high once people digested what the user base has greatly grown that that potential is fantastic.

 

[Convert2013]

Those are good points and true. Because they did scale relatively fast they now command some 50% of the market. The difference is that Tesla can never scale fast enough to capture that kind of market position nor could any auto manufacturer. Tesla has fantastic potential but Apple like multiples are not part of that potential IMO.

I think TSLA will remain volatile ad range bound until we get the next large jump on revenue by a meaningful multiple. I don't think any "other" data (including price targets) will really work anymore to break the trading range (<$200). In my opinion not $500 or $600 million for quarterly results but $750 to $1.0 + Bil. That will be the key trigger for the next level for the stock. They may be able to do this Q1 of 2014.

 

[sub]

I emailed Jaclyn the (Detroit-based) writer, as well as Dean Murphy, NYT Business editor demanded a correction.

Probably doesn't need to be said but let us know if you hear back (doubtful). Without that misinformation the entire article is worthless.

 

[kenliles]

I think TSLA will remain volatile ad range bound until we get the next large jump on revenue by a meaningful multiple. I don't think any "other" data (including price targets) will really work anymore to break the trading range (<$200). In my opinion not $500 or $600 million for quarterly results but $750 to $1.0 + Bil. That will be the key trigger for the next level for the stock. They may be able to do this Q1 of 2014.

Yep. Pretty much agree with that

 

[brianstorms]

Probably doesn't need to be said but let us know if you hear back (doubtful). Without that misinformation the entire article is worthless.

I also emailed the Public Editor ([email protected]) and to the Request for Corrections editor ([email protected])

I doubt I'll hear anything. The article goes into the PRINT edition tomorrow. It really is astounding that the NYT would do something so stupid.

 

[Bunky]

I emailed Jaclyn the (Detroit-based) writer, as well as Dean Murphy, NYT Business editor demanded a correction.

Good. I sent her a message too. We need to collectively call BS on this fiction.

 

[RationalOptimist]

Anyhow.... in some years we will all look back at this time smiling and wishing we would have bought more....
And even if the after-hours market expectations is not what we hoped for and the QE3 ER was not as blowout as we had hoped/expected, I want to take the opportunity to thank everyone on this forum for their tireless and brotherly devotion to the "Tesla Motors Family Club" :smile:
I have no doubt in my mind that Tesla and everyone of us will end up being winners in the long run.

Classy.

- - - Updated - - -

I swear it seemed like the stock dropped 10% before the Q3 letter was actually available. Can't even blame it on a stop-loss cascade because it's after hours and most people were on the sidelines.

Shenanigans? Coordinated short attack?

Nope. Just algorithm trades. Based on formulae prepped by analysts, they read the press release looking for the specific numbers on earnings, GM, guidance, apply a weighting to each one and make a buy/hold/sell decision in less than a second.

And sometimes they become self-fulfilling prophecy, as when they trigger headlines like "market was disappointed in the earnings report."

 

[brianstorms]

Hey! guess what! Just heard from NY Times.

Thank you, Brian. You are correct. Tesla projected 25,000 in combined sales for 2012 and 2013. We are fixing the error right now. Thank you again for bringing it to my attention.

Sincerely,
Jaclyn Trop

There may be hope for the ol' paper after all.

 

[AlMc]

Hey! guess what! Just heard from NY Times.



There may be hope for the ol' paper after all.

Nicely done! Thanks

 

[DaveT]

Hey! guess what! Just heard from NY Times.

Awesome. I was just in the middle of composing an email to those email addresses you shared. But great to hear that they've admitted to the error and will fix it.

 

[sub]

Hey! guess what! Just heard from NY Times.



There may be hope for the ol' paper after all.

I stopped reading the article after the first paragraph, didn't seem like there would be anything worth reading after an error like that. How exactly can they fix that in the article since it's the entire premise? The article needs to disappear.

 

[aznt1217]

I don't know about you guys but I think the earnings were great. What fascinates me is the market was full of naysayers saying there is going to be demand constraints... and when that gets knocked down they say they won't hit gross margin target. It's clear to me they will... so what the heck is left? It's just a matter of time.

They grew bloody cash... expanded production... working out supply chain kinks... got rid of their number 1 FUTURE supply constraint...

Markets are irrational. There will be a delay and I expect on Thursday we'll get a round of upgrades from DB, Jeffries, and Dougherty. Wedbush was first because he's the ultra bull, the bulge bracket banks will review tomorrow and get their letters to clients ready (if not tonight). Money managers will also be buying in tomorrow. It's going to reflect the decrease in the morning and perhaps tomorrow, but it will recover. I'm not a technical trader, I believe in fundamentals and business execution... don't see any issues here.

For those talking about Elon sounding tired.... I think it was food coma.

 

[brianstorms]

Of course, now I am wondering, what is she talking about, 25000 sales for combined 2012+2013? Is that accurate? She doesn't seem to understand "deliveries" vs "sales" -- I wrote back and thanked her for making the correction but also tried to help her understand how the number Tesla goes by is deliveries.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Hey! guess what! Just heard from NY Times.



There may be hope for the ol' paper after all.

lol. I also sent them an email a few minutes ago when i saw the article. i have a feeling you and i were not the only ones. "Don't mess with Teslans", right?!