MartinAustin
Active Member
Might be better asked over on another part of this massive forum. I am sure the moderators are already swirling overhead, looking at all this battery discussion...
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Might be better asked over on another part of this massive forum. I am sure the moderators are already swirling overhead, looking at all this battery discussion...
The answers to 3 of your questions are not publicly known. Tesla has named only Panasonic as their battery supplier.
In 2012, Elon Musk was very giddy on conference calls regarding the Mercedes deal. Despite constant questioning, Elon stated Mercedes would have to announce and answer details of their deal. Interestingly, power train business was an often covered and discussed topic on earnings calls in 2011 and 2012. The talk of supplying power trains to other manufacturers has come to an abrupt halt. If I were Tesla, I would first corner the market in automotive grade battery production. This would reduce cost and corner the market on raw materials and distribution by being the largest and most efficient manufacturer. Then I would revisit the electric power train business line. That would be a wise move.
An excellent observation of Elon's hands-on, playfully deft manipulation of expectations and excitement this past spring leading up to that ER. (Don't forget the battery swap demo.) Something that needs to be taken into consideration is the amount of time that Elon Musk is actually spending at the helm of Tesla Motors. His first love is SpaceX and that venture has undoubtedly taken a lion's share of his mental and emotional capacities since last spring. (Thank goodness he handed off the Hyperloop after brain-storming it for a short time.)
SpaceX has some pressing and critical benchmarks coming in the next few months: http://www.spacex.com/missions#future-missions-header Elon commented on how stressful this particular launch was.
They just delivered their first commercial payload to orbit at the end of September after launch delays. SpaceX attempted their first reusable recovery (proof of concept of their unique business model) of the 1st stage booster, which was partially successful. I'm sure everyone has seen video of the hovering Grasshopper (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2t15vP1PyoA), then the most recent launch with the first stage re-firing for reentry after separation, and the still shot of the booster 3 meters above the ocean, totally intact, before losing balance and splashing down. Now that's hair-raising, science fiction-level engineering audacity and accomplishment. Tesla might be taking a back seat, as it were.
That September launch, with its delays and post-mission fact-finding and re-engineering to solve the rotating propellant issue that spoiled the planned ocean touchdown has to have taken an immense amount of Musk's time at the end of Q3 leading up to this Earnings Report.
SpaceX has a full slate of upcoming commercial flights, including a NASA ISS resupply mission. That company and its current position are far more technically demanding and financially critical than Tesla Motors right now. The man needs to be cloned. Or his lead executives given more authority?
Please feel free to move this if it's too off-topic.
Its a 28,5 kWh pack with 3696 Panasonic cells. Source: Fahrbericht Mercedes B-Klasse Electric Drive 2013 - autozeitung.de [german]
Start of production for Daimler is anticipated in spring 2014. Source: Tesla Motors - Current Report
Ad hoc i couldnt find any order numbers by Daimler.
On a side note: Tesla built 1,107 battery packs for the Toyota RAV4 through Sept 2013. A pack is about 4,500 cells (41,8 kWh). Source: Toyota RAV4 EV - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Guys and gals remember, this is short term movement thread. So talking over and over how investing in the long term etc is the way to go is probably for other threads i for one would like more discussions on how the share price will happen to behabe in the next hours/days/weeks. Months I'd already leave for long term thread...
thanks
i for one would like more discussions on how the share price will happen to behabe in the next hours/days/weeks. Months I'd already leave for long term thread...thanks
For the record, I posted this about the B Class cells deliberately in this thread because I was wondering if it might be a factor causing some of the constraints that clearly dampened yesterday's earnings and conference call messages, and therefore the short. term. price. movement. of. TSLA.
But I guess that's too much of a tangent for the thread cops.
But I guess that's too much of a tangent for the thread cops.
MartinAustin
Active Member
@Mario - I'm confident TSLA will glide upwards over the next month. I am not confident enough to say it'll break the $194.50 ATH this year. All the signs for growth are there, including more and more news out of China that makes it look like Tesla will be a hit - and the outlook for these things will cause investors to come on board after what can only be described as a correction. The people describing the stock as overvalued better be quietening down right now. Short of Panasonic going bankrupt, the only battery news can be good these days.
Guys and gals remember, this is short term movement thread. So talking over and over how investing in the long term etc is the way to go is probably for other threads
thanks
It might take a few weeks, but Tesla stock will recover to the pre-Q3 ER price Level. I sold all my AAPL and i am all in TSLA. The story gets better and better (cash-flow, Investment activities, China, it was all in the EC). I saw this as a massive buying opportunity.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
No that is relevant, I was more inclined to dampen the whole don't buy short term options, invest long term and people buying on the dips. The discussions on the price itself somehow got lost. No charts, nothing.
I've been hearing this one but I don't get it. Elon pretty clearly stated on the Q2 call that it would take about 6 months for constraints to clear up. So why did we expect them not to slip into 2014?
You're not alone, me too but I'm in this for the long haul now so I have faith we'll come trudging back.
on another note see the below technical analysis on the volume today and price action. Points to a steady rise back up.
http://www.millertabak.com/mma/global.cfm?S=f&N=2&U=9960&K=5AEF&Z=no&T=p
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
http://www.millertabak.com/mma/globa...=5AEF&Z=no&T=p
the document says that it closed close to session lows, i find that to be inaccurate as it was 151 at the close with the low being 146-147.
the document says that it closed close to session lows, i find that to be inaccurate as it was 151 at the close with the low being 146-147.
I have been thinking about this quite a bit today. Elon is probably getting spread too thin between SpaceX and Tesla. That coud be bad for Tesla and hence TSLA in the short term.
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
Looking back at yesterday's TSLA call and comparing it with the just-concluded SCTY call with the Rive brothers and the CFO, there was definitely an order of magnitude difference in the energy level there. The Rives were upbeat and energetic while Elon and even Deepak sounded tired/depressed/insert-your-adjective yesterday. Oh well.
Pre-earnings the most prolific bear argument seemed to center on an arbitrary concept of overvaluation in general and misquoting Musk in particular. "Musk warns stock overvalued". This earnings call was a prime opportunity to slap that down and re-emphasize the concluding 'knock it out of the park' corollary.
I wonder if in avoiding the obvious opportunity to slap a miss-quoting of his own words, Musk was just tired, or was is there a better reason. For example to try to keep the stock shy of the bond conversion threshold until they are ready to buy back those bonds in cash as is their right and apparently their preference according to the May 2013 bond prospectus.
Tesla Motors may not advertise through the traditional media, but today I received an offer through email to test drive a Model S this weekend in Chicagoland. Tesla emailed to me similar ads on July 31 and October 9. I assume I’m on their mailing list as a shareholder without a Tesla car. So as some posters wonder about international expansion in light of supply constraint, I might wonder about this type of domestic advertising. The implication is that either demand is slowing, or that supply constraints are expected to alleviate.
I really wouldn’t worry about demand, since the company could implement a wider form of advertising. It may be hard for TMC members or Californians to believe, but a great many Americans are still unaware of Tesla Motors and its cars. I was unaware until receiving a tip in January and performing research which resulted in my share purchase. Monday I received a photo from a high school 1963 classmate and car enthusiast in Delaware seated in a replica 1927 Ford Roadster he had made (see image below.) I mentioned Tesla, and he responded, “I’ve seen some info on them, but not much.”
During the eighties I lived in Palo Alto and friends tell me there is a Model S on nearly every block. That certainly is not the case in the rest of the country. Not even close. Word of mouth can take a while to traverse a continent. I see much untapped demand. If Tesla is sending email ads to people like me, my suspicion is that supply constraints are expected to alleviate, but that Elon did not have sufficient proof to give analysts during yesterday’s conference call.
I really wouldn’t worry about demand, since the company could implement a wider form of advertising. It may be hard for TMC members or Californians to believe, but a great many Americans are still unaware of Tesla Motors and its cars. I was unaware until receiving a tip in January and performing research which resulted in my share purchase. Monday I received a photo from a high school 1963 classmate and car enthusiast in Delaware seated in a replica 1927 Ford Roadster he had made (see image below.) I mentioned Tesla, and he responded, “I’ve seen some info on them, but not much.”
During the eighties I lived in Palo Alto and friends tell me there is a Model S on nearly every block. That certainly is not the case in the rest of the country. Not even close. Word of mouth can take a while to traverse a continent. I see much untapped demand. If Tesla is sending email ads to people like me, my suspicion is that supply constraints are expected to alleviate, but that Elon did not have sufficient proof to give analysts during yesterday’s conference call.
Thumper
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