Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[uselesslogin]

I was wondering if Google trends can help me figure out how much other people are really thinking abut the Tesla fires.

Searches with Tesla and without fire in the search:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=tesla#q=tesla -fire&date=1/2013 12m&cmpt=q

Searches with Tesla and fire in the search:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=tesla+fire#q=tesla fire&date=today 3-m&cmpt=q

First, you'll notice that people haven't stopped searching for information on Tesla just because of the fires. Also, the second incident didn't garner nearly the number of searches as the first.

Finally, the comparison between my 2 searches is even more telling.
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=tesla#q=tesla -fire, tesla fire&date=1/2013 12m&cmpt=q

I just thought that might give people a wider perspective since the thread is focusing on all this supposedly bad news. I really don't think the general public is paying nearly as much attention as you think they are.

 

[FredTMC]

I really want to see an actual transcript (word for word) or video/audio what questions were asked today and how Elon answered.

Tesla CEO expects feds to clear Model S in fires

Media is full of misquotes, errors and omissions. I'd rather see a video of the interview or phone call recording of the interview so readers can form their own conclusions.

 

[Krugerrand]

Media is full of misquotes, errors and omissions. I'd rather see a video of the interview or phone call recording of the interview so readers can form their own conclusions.

Agree. It's almost impossible now to believe anything written on the topic.

 

[bareyb]

I was wondering if Google trends can help me figure out how much other people are really thinking abut the Tesla fires.

Searches with Tesla and without fire in the search:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=tesla#q=tesla -fire&date=1/2013 12m&cmpt=q

Searches with Tesla and fire in the search:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=tesla+fire#q=tesla fire&date=today 3-m&cmpt=q

First, you'll notice that people haven't stopped searching for information on Tesla just because of the fires. Also, the second incident didn't garner nearly the number of searches as the first.

Finally, the comparison between my 2 searches is even more telling.
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=tesla#q=tesla -fire, tesla fire&date=1/2013 12m&cmpt=q

I just thought that might give people a wider perspective since the thread is focusing on all this supposedly bad news. I really don't think the general public is paying nearly as much attention as you think they are.

Agreed. People are already bored with it and most know there's no real danger of being hurt in a Tesla even if one did have a battery fire. The only good thing about more fires is that eventually they will not be news any more, just like the fires that happen every minute in ICE vehicles. It's getting pretty tired… and so are the Trolls. They get shot down almost immediately now and the truth is out there. People aren't as dumb as the Trolls think.

 

[uselesslogin]

I really want to see an actual transcript (word for word) or video/audio what questions were asked today bad how Elon answered.

Tesla CEO expects feds to clear Model S in fires

Media is full of misquotes, errors and omissions. I'd rather see a video of the interview or phone call recording of the interview so readers can form their own conclusions.

Well he did say this:
"Musk also said that Model S sales are higher than expected so far in the fourth quarter."

I hope that isn't a misquote.

 

[justthateasy]

No, I am saying that a pennant is not a continuation indicator of any movement. Especially one that's squeezing from both side. If this pennant/flag whatever is sloped down, I'd agree. But a pennant in general, is a consolidation to a decision point and the proper advice for anybody is a straddle. That's is why I am saying it is crap to say it indicates a momentum either way. Look back in history, how many times did a pennant cause a jump up.

So yeah, you are full of crap to say it suggest a move that's purely bearish. It suggest a volatile event so bullish IV.

I invite you to do a quick Google search with the words: bear, pennant, and continuation. It will lead you to a plethora of articles regarding the subject of continuation patterns in a bearish direction. And if you replaced "bear" with "bull", you'll get it in the bullish direction.

The deal with technical analysis is price action relies on past and current trends in order to predict possible future movements. So in the case of TSLA, the stock is moving in a bearish direction and therefore any kind of patterns/indicators that develop as a point of consolidation will more than likely continue the bearish direction after the consolidation.

If you're so confident that I might be wrong and you're right about a massive reversal, you should put your money where your mouth is and take a long position pre-market on Monday or buy next week's 160 calls.

 

[DaveT]

I really want to see an actual transcript (word for word) or video/audio what questions were asked today bad how Elon answered.

Tesla CEO expects feds to clear Model S in fires

Media is full of misquotes, errors and omissions. I'd rather see a video of the interview or phone call recording of the interview so readers can form their own conclusions.

I agree. I get so much more out of the actual video/audio than a summarized article of an interview. Would love to see/listen to the actual interview.

 

[aznt1217]

It's a battle of bull and bears like never before. Momentum goes both ways like a pendelum. I got nervous mid day looking at the price but the end of day was very interesting. New support level at the $120 I hope. What's more interesting is Aswath Damodoran hit the number right on the nose for valuation. What we are looking at now is the valuation of company without the future prospects priced in due to the bearish sentiment. A new leg of optimism will serve Tesla well.

 

[slavi]

@perdru

While driving at high speed you cannot see under the car. If the car is hit in a vital place and damaged in that place you need to be informed IMO. There have been many fires (expecially in ICE cars!) starting like this.
To this concern I would like to point out that in the case of the last incident of the Model S the driver has been informed to pull over by the onboard screen. In fact he didn't see any smoke or fire. The smoke and the fire started only two minutes after that he left the car.

This spurred a random memory, but do you guys remember that limo in Vegas that caught fire and the driver kept going because he thought the banging on his window was the girls partying too hard and even scolded them with "No smoking allowed!"? Actually, here's the story:

Limo driver: Fire took 3 minutes to claim 5 lives - Las Vegas Sun News

A Tesla stretch limo might've saved lives that day.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Good point, and Tesla should build a stretch limo version of the S which I think would sell really well, particularly on China.

 

[FANGO]

You are right. I withdraw my previous statement that the BMW i3 is a fail. I guess I was more annoyed by how the media in its FUD campaign is doing everything it can to downplay the awesomeness of the Model S by comparing the i3 with the MS.

As I said earlier in this thread and at the risk of repeating myself: any time a new product is compared against an old product, that just means the old product is the benchmark. This is a good thing for the old product. Anyone writing a story about how the i3 is "finally competition for Tesla" or "a Tesla-killer" or anything of the sort simply verifies that the Model S is the best thing out there, and that it has been untouchable by anything until the advent of this new product. Then, people will see this new product, and many will think that no, in fact, it is not competition, and it is not good enough to be compared to the old product, which will only make the old product seem stronger. These are some of the reasons why any time something is referred to as an "x-killer," it will always fail to kill x. This phrase is a recognition of x's dominance in the market, and dominance does not go lightly.

So I welcome the comparisons. There is almost no way these comparisons can be considered a bad thing. They put Tesla in league with one of the most well-respected automakers in the world, and I'd bet most of the comparisons end up with the conclusion that there *is* no comparison. The Tesla is simply better, but that's also why it's more expensive, and also the cars really don't have the same market anyway. And besides, we'd much rather have these articles than the sorts of ridiculous hysteria we've been seeing for the last couple weeks.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

This spurred a random memory, but do you guys remember that limo in Vegas that caught fire and the driver kept going because he thought the banging on his window was the girls partying too hard and even scolded them with "No smoking allowed!"? Actually, here's the story:

Limo driver: Fire took 3 minutes to claim 5 lives - Las Vegas Sun News

A Tesla stretch limo might've saved lives that day.

Yes Tesla should produce more Models. A limo, a Wagon and a Truck would be welcome (including the Model X Model R and GenIII of course). Hope that NHTSA will make the Model S warning system for damages at the bottom of the car compulsory for ALL cars anyway.

 

[Krugerrand]

@Fango - thank you for that perspective.

 

[gene]

So I welcome the comparisons. There is almost no way these comparisons can be considered a bad thing. They put Tesla in league with one of the most well-respected automakers in the world, and I'd bet most of the comparisons end up with the conclusion that there *is* no comparison. The Tesla is simply better, but that's also why it's more expensive, and also the cars really don't have the same market anyway. And besides, we'd much rather have these articles than the sorts of ridiculous hysteria we've been seeing for the last couple weeks.

Just like as I have "tesla" as a google search with instant results via email, hundreds, maybe thousands, of BMW fans may have instant search results about all things BMW. Every time something about the i3 vs Tesla comes up, zoooooom.....that article hits their inbox!

 

[MSMX2014]

I invite you to do a quick Google search with the words: bear, pennant, and continuation. It will lead you to a plethora of articles regarding the subject of continuation patterns in a bearish direction. And if you replaced "bear" with "bull", you'll get it in the bullish direction.

The deal with technical analysis is price action relies on past and current trends in order to predict possible future movements. So in the case of TSLA, the stock is moving in a bearish direction and therefore any kind of patterns/indicators that develop as a point of consolidation will more than likely continue the bearish direction after the consolidation.

If you're so confident that I might be wrong and you're right about a massive reversal, you should put your money where your mouth is and take a long position pre-market on Monday or buy next week's 160 calls.

I truly appreciate your insight and enjoy this thread. I've been closely watching TSLA's price action and was wondering what your thoughts were regarding the sudden and dramatic rise in price in such a short period of time yesterday? I don't recall seeing that kind of intraday movement upward since earnings. I've been researching online and have only come across a few explanations for it. They all claim that OPEX was the reason for the dramatic jump yesterday, that it was temporary and we will likely continue the downward trend through next week. Does this seem likely or could it be a sign of a reversal?

 

[Curt Renz]

An hour ago Tesla Motors emailed to me an advertisement with a headline reading "MODEL S IS PERFECT FOR WINTER" and included the video seen below.

 

[carrerascott]

We got ours last March so haven't had a chance to try it in winter. Looking forward to it!

 

[BornToFly]

Never in my wildest dreams did I think TSLA would be below $150 at this point. I bought stock at multiple time points, starting at 50. However, the bulk of my purchases have been between 130 and 160. As a result, I'm down 20% right now with my TSLA portfolio. I can't decide what to do now. I haven't sold a single share, but should have at 170.... I've read articles stating that fund managers will sell their TSLA holdings by the end of the year to lock in profits, possibly driving the stock below 100. Do you guys think that will really happen? If so, maybe I should sell, take a loss, and re-buy at 100. However, I'm scared to do that in case the stock doesn't actually go any lower, in which case I would loose twice. The other option is don't sell now, buy more if it goes under 100, and then sell the stock I had purchased at 164 when it hits that number again (so my total investment doesn't get even more lopsided than it is already. Thoughts? Also, if the hedge fund managers sell, can there be enough new Model S owners buying stock to counter the sell off, or are the numbers not there for that?

 

[purplewalt]

Never in my wildest dreams did I think TSLA would be below $150 at this point. I bought stock at multiple time points, starting at 50. However, the bulk of my purchases have been between 130 and 160. As a result, I'm down 20% right now with my TSLA portfolio. I can't decide what to do now. I haven't sold a single share, but should have at 170.... I've read articles stating that fund managers will sell their TSLA holdings by the end of the year to lock in profits, possibly driving the stock below 100. Do you guys think that will really happen? If so, maybe I should sell, take a loss, and re-buy at 100. However, I'm scared to do that in case the stock doesn't actually go any lower, in which case I would loose twice. The other option is don't sell now, buy more if it goes under 100, and then sell the stock I had purchased at 164 when it hits that number again (so my total investment doesn't get even more lopsided than it is already. Thoughts? Also, if the hedge fund managers sell, can there be enough new Model S owners buying stock to counter the sell off, or are the numbers not there for that?

Any time one invests in the stock market, it should be done with the understanding that the entire amount could go away.
And the baby still gets fed, has new shoes, the rent is paid, etc.
Hopefully the momentary loss in traction and upward momentum for TSLA stock valuation does not impact your living standards.

IF you bought stock with the need to get in low and get out high quickly, IMO this is not the time to sell.
IF you are a long term investor, then be patient and wait about three to five years and reap your higher profit, lower-taxed capital gains rewards.

Patience is a hard thing to learn.
So is timing.

 

[tftf]

Never in my wildest dreams did I think TSLA would be below $150 at this point.

I can recommend this book, not just for investing (talking about long-term investing, not short-term trading) in TSLA but in general:

Amazon.com: The Intelligent Investor, Rev. Ed eBook: Benjamin Graham, Jason Zweig, Warren E. Buffett: Kindle Store

The best 15-20$ you will ever spend on investing in stocks and valuating companies in my opinion (value investing method).