Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note: Some posts have been moved to Potential Impact of Macroeconomic Shock

 

[sundaymorning]

No. I am regretting posting that article because even though it is totally wrong, everyone has said it's wrong, the call and letter both say its wrong, it does not at all follow from teslas trajectory past or future, etc, people keep saying that number as if its anywhere near reality. It's not. Please stop saying it, stop thinking it will happen, it will not. Not in the most wild of scenarios. It won't happen. Stop. Please. Stop it.

By repeating that number all you will do is cause yourself to lose money when tesla guides to 60k, which they will, since that's what Elon literally just said two days ago.

Typo on my part, I meant 100k run rate by the end of 2015. I don't think any serious investor would put an ounce of consideration in that article as an investment strategy, except if they made a typo mistake like I did.

 

[dalalsid]

Many Qs ago Tesla stated that they will have a run rate of 40k by the end of 2014. That was widely misunderstood and quoted as 40k sales for 2014 everywhere. Now the 35 target and the 40k are very close but 60-70 are not that close to 100.

 

[Thumper]

So... more on thread, nice price rise this morning.

 

[pz1975]

If it wasn't for the market downturn late last week, I think we would be over 250 by now.

 

[FANGO]

Just for a quick update, the LATimes writer got back to me and says that it was clarified to him by Tesla, and that I was "entirely correct" about the 2015 exiting run rate of 100k, rather than total production, and that Tesla has not yet made a projection as to how many cars it will make in 2015. Looks like bonnie's press contact must have reached out.

 

[Johan]

Nice, we broke $240 for the first time since June...

 

[The Blue Owl]

Just for a quick update, the LATimes writer got back to me and says that it was clarified to him by Tesla, and that I was "entirely correct" about the 2015 exiting run rate of 100k, rather than total production, and that Tesla has not yet made a projection as to how many cars it will make in 2015. Looks like bonnie's press contact must have reached out.

Yes, I checked the article earlier this morning, and it included this correction:

Correction: An earlier version of this story said Tesla had stated it would produce up to 100,000 electric cars in 2015. In fact, the company said it will be producing cars at an "annualized rate" of 100,000 per year by the end of 2015.

 

[chickensevil]

Many Qs ago Tesla stated that they will have a run rate of 40k by the end of 2014. That was widely misunderstood and quoted as 40k sales for 2014 everywhere. Now the 35 target and the 40k are very close but 60-70 are not that close to 100.

Except that they are actually exiting the year at 50k run rate, not 40k, and the 60k was just a really conservative number that Elon felt comfortable saying without real fear of it going wrong until they get more details later on. This way if something happens and it continues to be 60k there won't be anything negative. It is too far out to say when all the ducks will fall into place to enable them to hit the 100k run rate. Also final note on the 40k, that was assuming 800 a week which they hit this quarter and before they decided to up their final assembly line to do 200 more a week.

Way back when, if I am remembering correctly, they said they would ramp up this year during early second half to hit 800 a week and run that through the end of the year... which gave the original 35k guidance. They then in Feb made mention of the new line that would be added in order to hit an even higher rate, which was when they talked about hitting 1k. This shifted their run a bit, but were able to keep the 35k guidance because although they shut down for two weeks, they are making it up post restart by hitting a higher output.

Now we have our first mentions of both the body shop overhaul to a 2,500 run rate happening in Q1 and the paint shop overhaul (expect a hefty CapEx on that one) to get it up faster, but no word on when that will happen specifically. So this should be fun to continue watching as they upgrade the plant further to hit new higher numbers

 

[hockeythug]

Just for a quick update, the LATimes writer got back to me and says that it was clarified to him by Tesla, and that I was "entirely correct" about the 2015 exiting run rate of 100k, rather than total production, and that Tesla has not yet made a projection as to how many cars it will make in 2015. Looks like bonnie's press contact must have reached out.

He got back to me as well. I guess a few of us emailed him.

 

[TSLAopt]

Today is the first day the factory was to be re-opened with the new and improved line.


Maybe I am a cynic, but out of the thousands of factory workers there that are for the first time today witnessing this new line and it's capability and near term impact in production, wouldn't word get out today to some big institutional investors of how serious of an upgrade this is or isn't? Maybe not even on purpose, a worker might txt his friend casually about how his daily job is vastly changed from a couple weeks ago, that friend then texts his friend who is some big institutional investor.


Inside information is such a grey area in this stuff...I just can't see some big investors not trying to get this information first to act on it and increase or decrease their TSLA weightings in their portfolios...the good news for us retail investors who are long and play by the rules is that the stock went up significantly today...so if my cynicism is right then it is actually very good news for us and the TSLA stock price.

 

[Auzie]

Today is the first day the factory was to be re-opened with the new and improved line.


Maybe I am a cynic, but out of the thousands of factory workers there that are for the first time today witnessing this new line and it's capability and near term impact in production, wouldn't word get out today to some big institutional investors of how serious of an upgrade this is or isn't? Maybe not even on purpose, a worker might txt his friend casually about how his daily job is vastly changed from a couple weeks ago, that friend then texts his friend who is some big institutional investor.


Inside information is such a grey area in this stuff...I just can't see some big investors not trying to get this information first to act on it and increase or decrease their TSLA weightings in their portfolios...the good news for us retail investors who are long and play by the rules is that the stock went up significantly today...so if my cynicism is right then it is actually very good news for us and the TSLA stock price.

TSLAopt I will be a bigger cynic and say I play by the rules because I do not have anyone in the factory to text me, I wish I had:wink:

 

[The Blue Owl]

Fresh article in the Wall Street Journal (follow the first link) about China putting pressure on foreign businesses to bring their prices in line with other markets. Audi, Daimler, and BMW are mentioned by name. Tesla isn't mentioned, seeing as they don't gouge their customers.

One recent target of antitrust probes has been China's luxury-car market, which is dominated by foreign, especially German, brands. Together, Audi, BMW AG BMW.XE +0.89% and Mercedes-Benz have a roughly 70% market share.

An editorial by the official Xinhua News Agency last August said foreign car makers earned exorbitant profits by dominating the market and controlling auto-parts sales.

Many of the car makers are already responding by cutting prices. Mercedes-Benz said late Sunday it would cut the costs of spare parts sold in China by an average of 15%. Last week, Audi announced price cuts for spare parts of as much as 38%; Tata Motors Co. 500570.BY +1.20% 's Jaguar Land Rover PLC said it would cut prices for three models in its portfolio.

 

[bonnie]

Just for a quick update, the LATimes writer got back to me and says that it was clarified to him by Tesla, and that I was "entirely correct" about the 2015 exiting run rate of 100k, rather than total production, and that Tesla has not yet made a projection as to how many cars it will make in 2015. Looks like bonnie's press contact must have reached out.

Yes I believe they did, that evening. They work late hours there.

- - - Updated - - -

And thanks to the folks on this forum (and FANGO for sending me a message) for asking that Tesla be contacted. I would likely have missed it. And I'm sure Tesla appreciates the heads up. That kind of misinformation can't be allowed to stay or it just grows and becomes fact.

 

[chickensevil]

Yes I believe they did, that evening. They work late hours there.

- - - Updated - - -

And thanks to the folks on this forum (and FANGO for sending me a message) for asking that Tesla be contacted. I would likely have missed it. And I'm sure Tesla appreciates the heads up. That kind of misinformation can't be allowed to stay or it just grows and becomes fact.

Some "journalism"... Man, gotta love it... Can't even get basic reading comprehension...

 

[jhm]

Wow, TSLA is going into a third day with strong gains. I hope shares are moving into long-term hands. One wonders when the put holders will start to panic.

 

[ckessel]

Wow, TSLA is going into a third day with strong gains. I hope shares are moving into long-term hands. One wonders when the put holders will start to panic.

We were at $240 just about 5 weeks ago (beginning of July), so while this is welcome movement, it's not really breaking too far away from fairly recent peaks quite yet.

 

[jhm]

We were at $240 just about 5 weeks ago (beginning of July), so while this is welcome movement, it's not really breaking too far away from fairly recent peaks quite yet.

Sure, but the general market was much more optimistic 5 weeks ago. TSLA was floating along with the market then. But now it is going up against the market and, I believe, on strength of long-term prospects for the company. TSLA shorts are missing better short opportunities elsewhere in the market.

 

[dmckinstry]

So. We started out ok today (didn't shoot up to 300), but are we going to avoid another TSLA Tuesday?

 

[Causalien]

Wow, TSLA is going into a third day with strong gains. I hope shares are moving into long-term hands. One wonders when the put holders will start to panic.

Count me in for one of them. I forgot to buy back the put I sold, now i hold even more stocks. Which means huge tax consequences if I sell them.