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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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#7,221
aznt1217 said:
The timing is perfect as Model S will need a "refresh."
Click to expand...

I don't know why people keep saying this, it doesn't need a refresh... cars go easily 5-8 years of sales without doing a redesign... and in fact that timeline is part of spreading out and calculating the ROI on the R&D cost of doing a beefed up model.

That being said, +1 to everything else, we have heard it rumored for a very long time there would be an AWD MS, Q3 would be the best time if they are trying to avoid killing the S sales, but I think it is a balance, they don't want to drop the S sales too much, but the X sales can't be low either or everyone will say it is a problem.

Of course they are going to have to balance it all out since the supply issue is still going to be in the batteries... So if they do say, 75k Next year, it could very well be that the X only gets 25k of those sales and the S gets 50k which will totally starve both models... They could go for a 50/50 and it would be an issue too... so it is anyone's guess how they are going to balance this one out...
 
#7,222
chickensevil said:
I don't know why people keep saying this, it doesn't need a refresh... cars go easily 5-8 years of sales without doing a redesign... and in fact that timeline is part of spreading out and calculating the ROI on the R&D cost of doing a beefed up model.

That being said, +1 to everything else, we have heard it rumored for a very long time there would be an AWD MS, Q3 would be the best time if they are trying to avoid killing the S sales, but I think it is a balance, they don't want to drop the S sales too much, but the X sales can't be low either or everyone will say it is a problem.

Of course they are going to have to balance it all out since the supply issue is still going to be in the batteries... So if they do say, 75k Next year, it could very well be that the X only gets 25k of those sales and the S gets 50k which will totally starve both models... They could go for a 50/50 and it would be an issue too... so it is anyone's guess how they are going to balance this one out...
Click to expand...

Its not a redesign its just a larger set of improvements mid cycle
 
#7,223
I think Tesla will have to release an AWD Model S with the Model X. I remember Musk saying the performance Model X will go 0-60 in 4.4 seconds, and will only be a couple hundred pounds heavier. Since the 0-60 reduction in the Model S, I think the Model X will be faster than 4.4 seconds. Why would customers buy a Model S if they can buy a Model X that performs similarly (assuming handling is also similar) and has more space (and cooler doors)?

IIRC, Ben Kallo said that the Model X will be revealed September/October, and if Tesla ends up revealing an AWD Model S with it, I think the stock will instantly go back into rally mode.
 
#7,224
32no said:
Why would customers buy a Model S if they can buy a Model X that performs similarly (assuming handling is also similar)
Click to expand...

There is most probably a thread on this forum where the performance+handling differences of the two cars (or lack thereof) has been pondered, considered and re-thunk exhaustively. (go there) I imagine there will be some differences, particularly Wh/mile.

I project there will be enough well-written and properly thought through analysis over the weekend to fend off the other side of the coin (which will exclusively focus on Elon's comment about the stock). I'm optimistic enough to opine that the Nevada tax breaks "total dollar amount" will not have all of its conditional details ignored... it's just too big of a detail to ignore.

Coupled with the excitement regarding actual progress, I think this won't translate to a Monday continuation of the drop we saw today. We saw a firming up occur today at $275 which I think is a good base to rely on going forward. I believe there are too many investors who have cash ready and won't wait for a larger pullback... if they see a $289-down-to-$273 opportunity like this, they would buy, and that is supporting the stock around $275. I think that is a good support spot. (famous last words)
 
#7,227
FANGO said:
Yup.

Then again, Elon has also said that he is not an investor. Each one of us has engaged in many more transactions of tsla stock than Elon has (I believe he has made one buy and zero sells since tsla went public?). So maybe he doesn't know that, because that's not his job. Which is why I don't really care much what he says about the stock. I think he just says whatever's on his mind, like Bonnie mentioned above. He's done this many times before, about the stock and others wise. it's just his thing.
Click to expand...

+1
Warren Buffett compared the stock market to a loud neighbor that shouts at You every day about what he thinks Your house is worth. Considering that I would like to say that TSLA may be Elon Musks baby and that he put it on it´s feet and get´s it running. But he has clearly little control over the stock price because WE are the neighbor. The market dictates what it´s worth. And the only influence he has to give it a little push or step on the brake is by saying those things. I think he just doesn´t want the stock price to be overhyped. Plus: Who can claim to completely understand the TSLA stock ?? So there might as well be a good number of people who know more about it than Elon. Especially because he stated that he doesn´t look at it too often.
 
#7,228
I think it's ridiculous to think that the drop wasn't due to Elon's comments. We had a ton of momentum Thursday, a great presentation about the GF with huge incentives. We would have been at 290-300 easily. I think pre-market Friday actually opened around 290 then quickly dropped to 280's. Just think about it, why would anyone buy a stock when the CEO is saying he thinks it's overpriced. You'd obviously want to wait for a pull back and the question is how large will that pull back be. The other issue is that this could possibly kill the short term momentum we had and so 300 may be a longer ways away.
 
#7,229
justdoit said:
I think it's ridiculous to think that the drop wasn't due to Elon's comments.
Click to expand...
I think it's ridiculous to think the drop had anything to do with Elon's comment whatsoever. Like usual, everyone was in hyper mode hoping this would be some big reveal beyond simply confirming the Nevada site was just continuing to be the actual site.

Folks went "That's it? No big reveal? No statement about other factories? Just confirming what everyone already suspected?"...and with the excitement dying off, there was a sell off.
 
#7,231
Pffffyt. Anything will make this stock go up or down. Any. Thing.

If any of you are playing the speculation game, you need to be prepared for that. No whining if Elon says something that makes it go down (or up). Someone hits a wall. Bam, it goes down. Someone gets a glimpse of the X. Wheeeeee! It goes up. It's a volatile stock, which is why it's a good target for speculation. And if you're investing (ie, long) like some of us are, then this is all just interesting to watch.

So #sorrynotsorry ... if you're going to play the spec game, you need to be wearing your Big Boy pants and not get upset if Elon says what he happens to believe or if something else happens of if a pic of the X gets out or whatever. That's the game. Pull up those pants and buckle up or buy stock and hold it for awhile.

:) <--- smiley face, I've been told that makes these things better
 
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#7,232
bonnie said:
Pffffyt. Anything will make this stock go up or down. Any. Thing.

If any of you are playing the speculation game, you need to be prepared for that. No whining if Elon says something that makes it go down (or up). Someone hits a wall. Bam, it goes down. Someone gets a glimpse of the X. Wheeeeee! It goes up. It's a volatile stock, which is why it's a good target for speculation. And if you're investing (ie, long) like some of us are, then this is all just interesting to watch.

So #sorrynotsorry ... if you're going to play the spec game, you need to be wearing your Big Boy pants and not get upset if Elon says what he happens to believe or if something else happens of if a pic of the X gets out or whatever. That's the game. Pull up those pants and buckle up or buy stock and hold it for awhile.

:) <--- smiley face, I've been told that makes these things better
Click to expand...

The emoticons do indeed help. I feel much better :D

It's a good thing Elon doesn't post what he eats for meals on Twitter or people would speculate that those meals had significance in the stock price of the company ;)
 
#7,234
Investors get carried away

Raffy.Roma said:
Of course the drop was due to Elon's comments. The TSLA stock is a technical stock and IMO Tesla has been forced to intervene because the stock was flying too high. So IMO nothing wrong with Elon's comments. In Tesla they know what they are doing.
Click to expand...

Well said. It looks like Tesla (Elon) starts to manage stock price on top of managing business.

Investors get carried away, that is true. It is so easy to get carried away with Tesla. The Tesla story taps into huge hunger for the better world, so yes we all get carried away and it feels good. :smile:
 
#7,235
A great deal has been said about Elon's comment regarding the price of the stock. When I watched the cnbc video with Phil Lebeau, the video had been edited. It did not include the question, only Elon's response.

Does anyone know where the entire video can be viewed. I would like to see the unedited version. Just saying.
 
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#7,236
Elon does not care about short term focused gamblers. Why is everyone pissed at him. I believe he said the right thing that Tesla after a hell of a run after earnings cannot just keep going higher to satisfy gamblers. Enuf.
 
#7,238
I have long term investments and short term speculations. They are not mutually exclusive. Yes Elon is entitled to express his opinion, and so are we.

CEOs ought to consider both the long term as well as the short term. All this said, I am not pissed at Elon.

I will however analyze both short term catalysts as well as long term catalysts.
Elon & DIARMUID O'CONNELL.jpg


Throughout Elon's response he is smiling. Diarmuid O'Connell is not. My original point was that Elon's and Diarmuid's reaction told a different story.
 
#7,240
bonnie said:
I thought Diarmuid kept a pretty good poker face - that screen shot you show is not representative IMO of his demeanor while Elon is talking.
Click to expand...

Bonnie,

Allow me to clarify. Elon seemed to me to be nervously smiling throughout his response. Diarmuid's body language gave me the same impression. I still haven't seen an unedited version of the video. I want to know, how the question was framed. I may be wrong, but I think both of Elon and Diarmuid thought it was an inane question. Enough?
 
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