CyberDutchie
Active Member
Did anyone else notice a slight recovery today when DaveT started posting his analysis? :wink: I take Dave's advice and opinion over AJ's any day, AJ just has a bigger megaphone...
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We all (assuming all or most of us are Tesla owners and customers), have an even bigger megaphone in the long run.
Thanks for all your thoughts, Dave. I'm with you on most, though I still suspect that AJ does not believe much of the unsubstantiated fluff he wrote today. I actually think that this note sets up the following chain of events:
1) Tank the share price so clients can scoop up shares at a discount, Tesla employee options look attractive, and the $300mark related to convertible bond issue is not passed in the immediate.
2) Set up a Q3 ER expectation that hedges based on some notion of production/delivery constraints related to Model X retooling. Claim he was right if share price dips and tell clients to buy more.
3) At Model X reveal and Q4 ER, prepare to say "look at that, my Bull Case $500 price target turns out to be right, and [something the company has done in last quarter] makes me believe things are super-great after all"
Basically, I think he is setting himself up to claim that his predictions were correct no matter what happens, because he is now predicting both sides of his own argument will come to pass.
Sadly, I think he lost considerable credibility as an analyst today with anyone but those powerful people who must have forced his hand to write the nonsense his note today contains.
Looking forward to Craig Irwin, Andrea James, and others weighing in.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Yes, was just about to point that out... we are $5 over the bottom of the day. Whoever bought it at $249 on such a risky day should congratulate themselves 
I actually don't think the other person to whom you're referring took it that way--I think he just didn't understand the risk profile and obligations imposed by a naked (short) put in the first place. Sounded like he got it confused with a naked (short) call, or maybe something else entirely.
But obviously, I can't dispute that you took it that way. As you say, agree to disagree on this one. Good discussion in any event.
keep in mind there could be more of a drop still to come...often times big institutions getting into or out of positions put through VWAP orders over multiple days.
VWAP orders are by far the most common order type big institutions use to get into or out of their large positions.
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May I ask that we stop arguing about puts/calls terminology on this thread? I hope the mods take those posts (must be at least 10-20 over the past few pages) out as it really dilutes the quality of notes on here about today's price movement in such an important day
ISI Group initiates coverage on TSLA with buy rating and 320 price target. Anyone know much about ISI group?
True, but this move is (likely) more of an overreaction than fund managers running to the exit gate. All big name nasdaq stocks got hammered today and the report just added fuel to the fire. Odds are good, real good, that tomorrow is a BIG up day for today's beat up nasdaq listings.
Of course it's just speculation until the time machine has been repaired and properly calibrated...
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
nice assessment. I agree largely with you and Dave. Seems as if Elon wanted the stock down and Adam accommodated.
I took the opportunity to buy some Jan16 Calls today. We held above 50 day MA today. We will see what happens mañana
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Would it not be poetic justice if AJ#2 (Andrea James) came out with a new price target tomorrow. $380?
Hey Steve, thanks for the 2011 report link. I think the question is exactly what does AJ "getting Tesla" mean. To me his 2011 and his 2014 report are very similar in that he sees Tesla's role as limited in terms of manufacturing scale over the long term (ie., 1 million units/year in 2027-2028). In other words, in terms of units/year he sees Tesla's potential as something between a niche manufacturer like Porsche and a small mass manufacturer like BMW, but definitely not on the level of a mid-level mass manufacturer or large-level mass manufacturer.
In other words, what is consistent with Adam Jonas over the years is that he's never he's never said that Tesla could sell as many cars as even BMW (ie., BMW sold about 2 million cars in 2013). I think this is a valid point to ponder. If he's projecting Tesla to sell 371k units in 2020, then why only 1 million units in 2027 and 1.1 million units in 2028.
Some people are thinking that he's low-balling and being conservative. However, I'm not seeing that. If he was low-balling or being conservative (ie., back in Feb) then he could have upped his estimates today citing improved gigafactory execution and possibility of expansion of new factories and gigafactories in the next 3-5 years. That alone should boost his 2028 projections to at least 1.5-2 million. Instead though, he re-affirms his long-term projections and says he thinks Tesla is overvalued at the moment... even while giving a $325 price target 7 months ago.
To me (IMHO) Adam Jonas is acting like a true TSLA 1.5 believer who got ahead of himself in Feb with his $325 price target and now is trying to reign in those expectations.
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I'm starting to doubt all these TSLA "super bull" analysts out there. I wonder if they are just chasing the stock up with higher price targets as the stock goes up.
With Andrea James, I've heard her say she believes in the 500k units/year by 2020 number, but I haven't heard her mention what she thinks Tesla's potential is beyond that. Does anybody know if she's ever shared her projections past 2020 (ie., to 2025 or 2030?)?
Dave, glad you liked the link. I think Jonas put a lot of effort into making the case that Tesla would be a game changer on a global scale at a time (2011) that that thesis was likely shot down and laughed at by most (I saw the report in 2012, I don't know how it was received when he released it). He basically was saying the EV was to ICE what ICE was to the horse and buggy.
As to what AJ wrote today... I think 1) the analysts think what they think, 2) some of them, some of the time will shade what they think, even write things they don't think, to serve some other short-term objective.
Until today, I didn't particularly think 2) was behavior Adam Jonas engaged in.
I don't know what Jonas' motives for attempting to tap the breaks on Tesla are, but I think that was his objective, and I think the content was shaded/fabricated to serve that objective. To be fair, I have to say now I look back and his super bullish report in February looks all the more like it was done to serve the last secondary. His report sent the stock up $50, and the secondary benefitted from it. That is, Tesla seems to have also benefitted from this game though I'll pass on speculating on whether it was coordinated or not.
I just don't believe that Jonas believes that autonomous cars will cut off Tesla's opportunity for further growth, or that ICE will start improving along Moore's laws (as I think the comment you shared from the report somewhat cryptically implies). I don't think Adam Jonas believes any of that.
Dave, if AJ really thought Tesla will never get beyond BMW volumes because EVs are cutting edge (what you say is consistent with his continuing to refer to Tesla as the most important automaker) but other automakers will pick up on that technology and elbow Tesla out of further growth (which you say is consistent with his calling Tesla a niche player today), why not just say that? Why resort to the implausible... autonomous vehicles will remove Tesla's competitive advantage, and ICE will start improving along the lines of Moore's law after over a century of a tremendously slower rate of improvement?
As to the 1.5-2 million cars. I agree with you. I see Tesla getting there mid 2020s. But, I don't know that any analyst has put out a valuation scenario with Tesla selling in that range. I think I may have heard 1-1.5 million, but that's not really so different than Jonas. I think they all see Tesla at 2 million/year 10-12 years from now and only be early in its growth, but just see no reason to put themselves that far out on a limb about events a decade off into the future.
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I'm pretty confident on TSLA's direction and the direction of EV in general, but I'd have a hard time putting faith in anyone's ability to guess the magnitude and speed of change over more than a few years out.
I think Elon said, a year or so ago, that he thought that within 10-15 years more than 1/2 of cars sold would be electric. How the heck does an analyst even being to come up with numbers in that sort of scenario? There are trillions of dollars of ICE/gas infrastructure across the globe and even if EV adoption explodes in 5 years, how could anyone make a good guess now where the bottlenecks will be and who will be hurt the most?
The ability to predict out very far is swamped by the chaos in the permutations.
ISI group: http://www.isigrp.com/main/index.html
Their TSLA recommendation: http://www.wkrb13.com/markets/374910/isi-group-begins-coverage-on-tesla-motors-tsla/
jhm
Well-Known Member
I'm uncomfortable with the suggestion that Musk wants the price down and the Jonas is accommodating that intention. This would call into question the ethics of both Musk and Jonas. Neither one should be intentionally manipulating the stock price. I am willing to accept that Musk has a personal view of the stock price and may on occasion express that, but I cannot accept a CEO who deliberately tries to move the stock price up or down, apart from running an effective business. Do people here really subscribe to the view that Musk is a stock manipulator?
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
As I said in another post IMO if Elon took a position in favour of the price down it means that Tesla has been forced to intervene in the interest of share holders. We should remember that the TSLA stock is a technical stock and it cannot be left free to go too much high in some circumstances IMO.
Just my 2 cents.
Just my 2 cents.
In his 2011 report he forecasts Tesla sales to be "just under 500k by 2025":
"We forecast that Tesla will have unit sales of 42k by 2015, 240k by 2020, and just under 500k by 2025. The lower-priced Gen 3 model range accounts for the vast majority of our volume growth projections from 2017, accounting for nearly two-thirds of our 2025 Tesla revenue projection."
It seems like he's always viewed Tesla's potential to be as a relatively small manufacturer. He did raise those numbers a bit in his Feb 2014 report (1.1 million units in 2028), but that's still relatively small as an auto manufacturer.
Today he just reaffirmed his beliefs.
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