Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[vgrinshpun]

Looks like we are at an interesting point on the TSLA chart. TSLA encountered resistance at 244-245 (green line). If TSLA breaches this resistance tomorrow am, it will also break out of the downward regression channel AND could fill the gap that was formed after the "D" announcement.

I would expect bears will try to master whatever they have to prevent TSLA breaking through the 244-245 resistance level.

View attachment 62405

As far as unicorns go, I can't help it but to offer my version. Just to note the difference, I prefer to work with the regression channels, as opposed to the trading channels.

Back at the end of October my chart showed that we are at the turning point of trying to break through $244-245 resistance, while at the same time breaking out of the downward regression channel, and trying to fill the gap formed after the "D" announcement. Ten trading days later, after bumping into the $244-245 resistance multiple times we finally broke it, started filling the gap, and, tentatively, broke out the downward channel.

The next stop is resistance at $265 - hopefully...

 

[FredTMC]

As far as unicorns go, I can't help it but to offer my version. Just to note the difference, I prefer to work with the regression channels, as opposed to the trading channels.

Back at the end of October my chart showed that we are at the turning point of trying to break through $244-245 resistance, while at the same time breaking out of the downward regression channel, and trying to fill the gap formed after the "D" announcement. Ten trading days later, after bumping into the $244-245 resistance multiple times we finally broke it, started filling the gap, and, tentatively, broke out the downward channel.

The next stop is resistance at $265 - hopefully...
View attachment 63422

thx for posting your charts guys. Much appreciated. I especially like your chart and analysis above. Hopefully overall market cooperates as well.

 

[TSLAopt]

thx for posting your charts guys. Much appreciated. I especially like your chart and analysis above. Hopefully overall market cooperates as well.

One day I plan to put a chart together quantifying the 'chatter' on here about the stock price..when chatter gets low like it has been recently and it still is then I think that GENERALLY (not always) bodes well for the stock price. My feeling is that is because the 'chatter' on here represents short term investor sentiment and participation in TSLA stock. When there is little chatter then it means that less people are following the stock so closely which is more commonly done by the 'weak longs' that are nervous trying to time when/if they should sell. While one might argue that some long term holders participate in this daily stock chatter (like me), there is a much larger proportion of long term TSLA investors who don't follow the stock everyday and so they don't read or participate in the chatter we engage in here in this thread especially(hence the thread title).

 

[austinEV]

One day I plan to put a chart together quantifying the 'chatter' on here about the stock price..when chatter gets low like it has been recently and it still is then I think that GENERALLY (not always) bodes well for the stock price. My feeling is that is because the 'chatter' on here represents short term investor sentiment and participation in TSLA stock. When there is little chatter then it means that less people are following the stock so closely which is more commonly done by the 'weak longs' that are nervous trying to time when/if they should sell. While one might argue that some long term holders participate in this daily stock chatter (like me), there is a much larger proportion of long term TSLA investors who don't follow the stock everyday and so they don't read or participate in the chatter we engage in here in this thread especially(hence the thread title).

I would love to see that analysis. But, I think you will find the chatter follows the movement. That is we all gossip about a big move up or down, and when there isn't movement we go quiet. You might find a correlation between low posting rates and a subsequent bigger move, but you might also see that pattern just in the stock charts. The price is boring for a few weeks then isn't boring.

Anyway, best to let the data talk.

 

[chickensevil]

One day I plan to put a chart together quantifying the 'chatter' on here about the stock price..when chatter gets low like it has been recently and it still is then I think that GENERALLY (not always) bodes well for the stock price. My feeling is that is because the 'chatter' on here represents short term investor sentiment and participation in TSLA stock. When there is little chatter then it means that less people are following the stock so closely which is more commonly done by the 'weak longs' that are nervous trying to time when/if they should sell. While one might argue that some long term holders participate in this daily stock chatter (like me), there is a much larger proportion of long term TSLA investors who don't follow the stock everyday and so they don't read or participate in the chatter we engage in here in this thread especially(hence the thread title).

I think some of it also comes down to actually having something to talk about. We are pretty much through all the news... the stock is rolling business as usual, so even those of us who are in it for the long haul have nothing really to talk about.

Speaking of which, outside of someone trying to move TSLA like we saw yesterday, I think this might be a bad day for us. The market is red across the board on a "healthy" pull back after posting 5 days of new highs.

 

[TSLAopt]

I would love to see that analysis. But, I think you will find the chatter follows the movement. That is we all gossip about a big move up or down, and when there isn't movement we go quiet. You might find a correlation between low posting rates and a subsequent bigger move, but you might also see that pattern just in the stock charts. The price is boring for a few weeks then isn't boring.

Anyway, best to let the data talk.

Thanks and your point is exactly my point though, after a 10 dollar or 4% move like yesterday then there were times on here where there would be many pages of back and forth chatter talking about it, if it will continue, etc. Last night and pre-market ths morning we have had just a few posts...very low chatter despite a significant move yesterday.


on another note, volume yesterday seemed a bit high and today again it seems we have high volume for no real news and considering the market at large isn't trading unusually high volumes yesterday/today. I wonder if there is some "changing of the guard" going on between some large institutional buyers/sellers.
Will be curious to see where the price shakes out once daily trading volume returns to normal non-news trading days which is typically 3-4mm shares per day

 

[chickensevil]

At this pacing we should hopefully close out the day only slightly down ready to finish off strong for the week (I hope).

It is interesting because the Dow and S&P500 are on the cusp of being positive for today as well which would make it 6 straight days of ATH. The I think the Nasdaq being healthily positive at this time is helping to float TSLA and overall I am happy with the price action for today because we are holding the ~10$ gain from yesturday quite nicely. Especially since the talks from yesterday seemed to point that the price was caused heavily by a firm very likely buying into the stock. So the unexpected buying volume raised the price and it makes me happy that we have managed to hold much of that today.

 

[MartinAustin]

One day I plan to put a chart together quantifying the 'chatter' on here about the stock price..when chatter gets low like it has been recently and it still is then I think that GENERALLY (not always) bodes well for the stock price. My feeling is that is because the 'chatter' on here represents short term investor sentiment and participation in TSLA stock. When there is little chatter then it means that less people are following the stock so closely which is more commonly done by the 'weak longs' that are nervous trying to time when/if they should sell. While one might argue that some long term holders participate in this daily stock chatter (like me), there is a much larger proportion of long term TSLA investors who don't follow the stock everyday and so they don't read or participate in the chatter we engage in here in this thread especially(hence the thread title).

My trading behaviour is to sell TSLA when it is higher and buy some more when it goes lower. So I don't stick with the shares indefinitely. That said, I own the car, think the company is amazing and destined for greatness, and I know a lot more about the inner workings and roadmap of the company than any other company I own stock in... and I intend to continue following it very closely and continuing to focus on TSLA stock for portfolio growth. Does this make me a weak long?

 

[chickensevil]

My trading behaviour is to sell TSLA when it is higher and buy some more when it goes lower. So I don't stick with the shares indefinitely. That said, I own the car, think the company is amazing and destined for greatness, and I know a lot more about the inner workings and roadmap of the company than any other company I own stock in... and I intend to continue following it very closely and continuing to focus on TSLA stock for portfolio growth. Does this make me a weak long?

No, the weak longs are those who tend to buy at a medium to high price and then see the price start to fall, and then sell early at a break-even or even at a loss because they don't have the stomach to wait for the stock to recover back into the green for them (or just keep adding to their position.)

 

[Curt Renz]

My trading behaviour is to sell TSLA when it is higher and buy some more when it goes lower. So I don't stick with the shares indefinitely. That said, I own the car, think the company is amazing and destined for greatness, and I know a lot more about the inner workings and roadmap of the company than any other company I own stock in... and I intend to continue following it very closely and continuing to focus on TSLA stock for portfolio growth. Does this make me a weak long?

Yes. Please do not think as the term weak long as derogatory of short term traders. It simply refers to those who are not strong longs that hold for the long term. A large cohort of strong long term shareholders supports the share price by making it difficult for new buyers to purchase at bargain prices.

A strong long is the type of investor that Elon encourages to own the stock. It's the kind he is aiming to make rich. To him the weak longs are nuisances that facilitate share price volatility. Most of them will eventually make at least one bad bet that shuts them out from large net profits.

 

[Auzie]

My trading behaviour is to sell TSLA when it is higher and buy some more when it goes lower. So I don't stick with the shares indefinitely. That said, I own the car, think the company is amazing and destined for greatness, and I know a lot more about the inner workings and roadmap of the company than any other company I own stock in... and I intend to continue following it very closely and continuing to focus on TSLA stock for portfolio growth. Does this make me a weak long?

Putting a name to such trading behaviour does not really matter. What you describe is exactly what I would like to do when trading. However, I am just not able to decide at what high to sell and at what low to buy. So I just hold for as long as I think it has upside potential. Once I stop seeing upside potential, I will start getting out.

I am concerned that if I sell on what I think is high, then I might not be able to get back in at better than selling price. So there is a potential for inefficient trading in selling and buying back.

I am curious to learn which method you use to catch the peaks and the lows.

 

[Curt Renz]

I remind members of one of my earliest TMC posts on 2013 MAR 12 (#131 in the 2013 version of this thread): Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013 - Page 7

This was not long after I had purchased all of my shares at an average of less than $38 each. The discussion in the thread at that time was focused on the strategy of buying in the low thirties and selling in the high thirties. Here is how I concluded my post:

"Perhaps longer term investors need not be too concerned. When a large number of traders feel it’s time to take profits in anticipation of repurchases at lower prices, yet are unable to depress prices much by their selling, those traders may eventually have to chase a stock that is running away on them."

 

[justthateasy]

Yes. Please do not think as the term weak long as derogatory of short term traders. It simply refers to those who are not strong longs that hold for the long term. A large cohort of strong long term shareholders supports the share price by making it difficult for new buyers to purchase at bargain prices.

A strong long is the type of investor that Elon encourages to own the stock. It's the kind he is aiming to make rich. To him the weak longs are nuisances that facilitate share price volatility. Most of them will eventually make at least one bad bet that shuts them out from large net profits.

It's posts like these that have been turning me off from the forum for a while. That is, calling some investors weak or strong, intending to be derogatory or not, does carry negative connotations.

We're all investors here, one way or another. Some of us have a strategy of holding for a very long period with no intention to sell and some of us are shorter term traders that trade with the intent to make it a source of (regular) income.

Is someone weak because they bought at 245 and sold at 250 for a quick profit? Is someone strong because they held after TSLA dropped from 290 all the way down to 217?

 

[mejojo]

It's not about you...it's an "industry term"

Weak Longs Definition | Investopedia

 

[chickensevil]

It's not about you...it's an "industry term"

Weak Longs Definition | Investopedia

Indeed this forum has used industry terms to talk about the various types of shorts (and most of those have certainly been negative) and even I put down the bears but yet have shorted the stock through puts and made decent money on it. So don't take industry terms to be directed at you as a positive or negative it is more about how he was describing the investment strategies in respect to the circumstance as it relates to TSLA and the risks associated with that.

 

[AlMc]

As to the 'weak/strong' discussion. I think many people here, myself included, that participate in the short term discussions are what I will call 'hybrid' investors in TSLA. We hold some shares that we consider core shares and trade shares, options, LEAPS to try to catch some trends/profits. If I were only 'all long' then I would have little to no reason to read/post on this thread.

 

[MartinAustin]

I am curious to learn which method you use to catch the peaks and the lows.

Well, as an example, when I saw the stock go up so much yesterday, I sold 5% of my holdings at $250 just before the end of the day. This happened not knowing what would happen today... whether there would be a continuing rally (in which case I was wrong to sell) or if the stock dropped (in which case I was right).

The cash raised has to sit around a while for me to get a good "feel" for whether or not the stock is truly depressed for no good reason, or if it is still drifting downwards. I did some of this buying and selling on the way down to $223 or so the other week. I am not totally sure this technique is working... but when it gets back up to $291 I will let you know

I bought some SCTY and some MBLY with cash raised from TSLA sales. They're not doing too well right now, but I think the main TSLA tide will lift those boats once it starts to rally upwards.

I firmly believe that the market cap of Tesla will be over $100billion before 2020.

- - - Updated - - -

If I were only 'all long' then I would have little to no reason to read/post on this thread.

Agreed!

 

[mdemetri]

So the Chief Technical analyst at InvestorPlace is arguing that once TSLA closes the gap from the D unveiling at ~255, it will go down to ~225. Is this just FUD? His reasoning is unclear to me but anyone with more TA knowledge want to agree/disagree?

Trade of the Day - Tesla Motors Inc TSLA Stock | InvestorPlace

 

[Curt Renz]

Keep in mind that the tax on capital gains is usually reduced significantly, if a stock is held for more than a year. Also consider that for tax purposes, the clock for a stock's holding period is reset to zero when a protective put option has been purchased, and does not commence ticking until the put has been sold.

EDIT: Fango's later question reminded me to make it clear that the put problem does not apply, if the puts are purchased after the stock has been held for more than a year.

 

[MikeC]

So the Chief Technical analyst at InvestorPlace is arguing that once TSLA closes the gap from the D unveiling at ~255, it will go down to ~225. Is this just FUD? His reasoning is unclear to me but anyone with more TA knowledge want to agree/disagree?

Trade of the Day - Tesla Motors Inc TSLA Stock | InvestorPlace

Using numbers for which he doesn't understand the context, he concludes that the stock is grossly overvalued. Looks like the same old FUD to me.