Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[nwdiver]

Depends on your time frame. A month ago TSLA closed at $250.98. There's a lot of red on my call options positions.

That sucks... bought some more shares today... wish I'd had the confidence to buy options when I got the car 2 years ago. I think TSLA has one more good surge before it settles down. My guess would be ~2016/17 timeframe when investors start seeing the M3 and Gigafactory as more a reality than a pipe dream.

 

[mejojo]

Depends on your time frame. A month ago TSLA closed at $250.98. There's a lot of red on my call options positions.

Oh sorry about that....only meant my DAY change. Lots and lots of red otherwise. Nothing a 20 point run can't put a big dent in.

An interesting thing I noticed is that although Jan 16 @200 @250 @280 all show (schwab quoting method) 10% rise for the day, the @270 was down 3%. Can't quite figure out some of this stuff.

 

[MikeC]

Oh sorry about that....only meant my DAY change. Lots and lots of red otherwise. Nothing a 20 point run can't put a big dent in.

An interesting thing I noticed is that although Jan 16 @200 @250 @280 all show (schwab quoting method) 10% rise for the day, the @270 was down 3%. Can't quite figure out some of this stuff.

Schwab lists the value after market close at whatever the last contract was sold for. With lightly traded options, there were probably no 270s sold during the last little rise at the end of the day. You will see that the price listed is closer to the bid than the ask - a more accurate value is probably the midpoint.

 

[woof]

What EVs are you considering when you say "the 120 mile range figure references a typical electric car range before Tesla arrived"?

I certainly would have bought a 120 mile EV in 2012, but I am not aware of any that were over 70 miles...at least in the US.

The LEAF and the i3 have a NEDC range of 120 miles. Perhaps that's where that came from. But then the Model S 85 has a NEDC range of 310 miles.

 

[dmckinstry]

The Smart Fortwo gets 34 MPG city 38 MPG highway for a combined 36 MPG with 1L 3 cylinder engine with auto transmission.

Well, 15 or more years ago my Geo Metro carrying 4 people and a dog could get 55 mpg on the highway. Of course, at the time, the speed limit was still 55 mph. I don't know if it would pass today's crash tests. That was also a 3 cylinder 1L engine.

 

[sundaymorning]

After the Feds stated what the street wanted to hear, market are rallying, so far the Nekkei is up 400 points. Europe should follow, we have less than 2 weeks left for 4th q, shorts interest is most likely high and Tesla has remained silent throughout this whole ordeal, which to me is a sign of strength. Can't wait till December is done, reviews on "D" should be coming soon and we still have that North American car show in January to look forward to. Then QR in early Feb

 

[Raffy.Roma]

We're approaching the biggest positive price swing since October, about 2 std deviations. The last big one was back in October 28th. A large negative swing was on Dec 1st (-2.42 std dev).

I'm hoping this is a change in direction for us, but there are so many new factors since late October that it's still anyone's guess.

That's right. TSLA suffered because of the oil prices but IMO investors are going to realize soon that renewable sources of energy and electric cars are better than cheap fossil fuels producing a GHG (CO2) worsening each day the Climate Change/Global Warming issue.

Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

 

[MartinAustin]

Wow. have you seen the pre-market trading? Up 3% already. When TSLA rockets up... it is SpaceX-style

I would like someone to eventually figure out the link between TSLA and the price of oil... until then, we need to keep watching the price of oil!!!

 

[dalalsid]

Then, it would be reasonable to assume that three years after the introduction of M3 its sales will be comparabloe to its most commonly used benchmark - BMW 3 Series. BMW sold about 500K 3 Series cars in 2013 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_3_Series). So why in the world AJ would assign less than 1/3 of this volume to Model 3?? This just does not make any sense to me.

My guess is that is more about the ability to make them, not the market. It is wise to expect that Tesla will face delays just like with the MX.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Wow. have you seen the pre-market trading? Up 3% already. When TSLA rockets up... it is SpaceX-style

I would like someone to eventually figure out the link between TSLA and the price of oil... until then, we need to keep watching the price of oil!!!

Doesn't matter whether real or not but the perceived link is what counts in the short term.

Why would anyone listen to an analyst about what a car will cost or how many will sell when that car has not yet been engineered or prototype released. I wouldn't care whether he would claim a million will be sold. I have never seen any projections like this on any other future cars by other manufactures even on cars they currently sell never mind plan to engineer. He was giving a six year forecast

 

[Gerardf]

Nice gain yesterday and now equally nice premarket & opening. Hope this scares some short's

 

[hershey101]

$215-$217 was previously support, so I presume that will be resistance on the way up. I would like to see a close above that, then we have a good chance of retaking the 200-day by next week.

 

[Robert.Boston]

$215-$217 was previously support, so I presume that will be resistance on the way up. I would like to see a close above that, then we have a good chance of retaking the 200-day by next week.

Good call -- after that initial run-up, TSLA seems stuck in the 212-213 range.

 

[jhm]

Nice article on Tesla's battery pack tech. It includes the suggestion that Tesla may have a high volumetric density battery for the Model 3, as the undercarriage area will be smaller. Points to range gains possible with higher efficiency motors, but oddly it fails to mention that Tesla already has demonstrated a 10% gain with dual motors. At any rate, there's some good info in this report.

Could Tesla Model S Get A Boost In Range — And Sales Too? TSLA TM - Investors.com

 

[FluxCap]

Good call -- after that initial run-up, TSLA seems stuck in the 212-213 range.

Robert, are you a TA convert now? What a difference a week makes! :-D

 

[NigelM]

OK, saw two articles on Tesla this morning:

Tesla-Is-Tanking and Tesla-Is-Surging

Both using shots of Elon from the exact same event/speech by the looks of it.

I'm speechless.....

 

[Johan]

OK, saw two articles on Tesla this morning:
View attachment 66349
Tesla-Is-Tanking and Tesla-Is-Surging

Both using shots of Elon from the exact same event/speech by the looks of it.

I'm speechless.....

But... His faces are different and fit the headlines

Baffled with you.

 

[mejojo]

But... His faces are different and fit the headlines

Baffled with you.

Easy....first was after Tuesday close....second is after today's open.....

 

[The Blue Owl]

OK, saw two articles on Tesla this morning:
View attachment 66349
Tesla-Is-Tanking and Tesla-Is-Surging

Both using shots of Elon from the exact same event/speech by the looks of it.

I'm speechless.....

Heh :smile:It's a widespread technique used in the media to set the tone by choosing the pose that best fits the intent (and bias) of the source.

Compare:

Edit: Excuse the hijack. Mods, please move this if not appropriate.

 

[JRP3]

Nice article on Tesla's battery pack tech. It includes the suggestion that Tesla may have a high volumetric density battery for the Model 3, as the undercarriage area will be smaller. Points to range gains possible with higher efficiency motors, but oddly it fails to mention that Tesla already has demonstrated a 10% gain with dual motors. At any rate, there's some good info in this report.

Could Tesla Model S Get A Boost In Range — And Sales Too? TSLA TM - Investors.com

It turns out that inside the base edition of the big Model S there's room for more batteries. Research firm IHS found this out when it began disassembling a Model S totaled in an accident.

​

Wow, they "discovered" that the smaller battery pack has fewer cells in it