Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[jhm]

Is Jonas still operating on the "Moore's Law for the Internal Combustion Engine" theory? Somehow the efficiency of gasmobiles is supposed to double every three years so that 100 mpg rules the road in 2020. How in the world can batteries keep up with this pace of innovation since it takes about a decade to double the performance per dollar of batteries? I guess if ICE can quadruple its output per gallon in six years, the utilities are really at a loss to compete with distributed gasoline power generators. And of course oil will remain cheap forever, just ask the Saudis.

 

[MartinAustin]

Well at least TSLA is staging a recovery today.

Perhaps passing under $200 caused people to look up and realise it would be a good idea to get some.

I wonder if Morgan Stanley's new price target, though lower than before, is still a positive affirmation for some.

 

[FluxCap]

$209 close after FOMC keeps considerable time, that's my random guess for today folks.

 

[austinEV]

Is Jonas still operating on the "Moore's Law for the Internal Combustion Engine" theory? Somehow the efficiency of gasmobiles is supposed to double every three years so that 100 mpg rules the road in 2020. How in the world can batteries keep up with this pace of innovation since it takes about a decade to double the performance per dollar of batteries? I guess if ICE can quadruple its output per gallon in six years, the utilities are really at a loss to compete with distributed gasoline power generators. And of course oil will remain cheap forever, just ask the Saudis.

It is wierd that engines didn't increase dramatically for 100 years and then they suddenly hockey stick up to 100mpg. I guess the industry just needed someone to ask! You know I hope this bit of fancy is dead on accurate. Every car in 2020 is at least 100mpg efficiency. That would be a 4-5x decrease in greenhouse gases. History will say that Tesla saved the world, just not as expected.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Interesting article published in Quartz on Tuesday about electric cars eventually becoming cheaper than those with ICE: Here Quartz

That article implies that all it takes for an EV drivetrain is a battery and a motor. Does anyone think that "Everything but the battery" is going to be $700? Motors, inverters, chargers, everything?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Chopped Liver

Here's a tidbit on the latest from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley. It's actually quite bullish for me, even though I think he's way way off in a number of areas. I will not post full report, please don't ask (it's full of some bizarre hypothetical assumptions, anyway):

View attachment 66214

Well, this note as puzzling to me as others coming from Adam Jonas lately.

According to his projection total of 297K units in 2020 will be split 150K M3, 147K MS/MX platform. By assigning 147K units to MS/MX AJ is acknowledging that MS sales will be approximately on par with the most comonly used MS benchmark - Mercedes S Class, which during the 2009-2012 sold on average 63-64K units worldwide (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercedes-Benz_S-Class). This is not surprising, because MS sales proved to be very close to MB Class S sales (current rate of production implies about 50K unit per year, slated to increase in 2015)

Then, it would be reasonable to assume that three years after the introduction of M3 its sales will be comparabloe to its most commonly used benchmark - BMW 3 Series. BMW sold about 500K 3 Series cars in 2013 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_3_Series). So why in the world AJ would assign less than 1/3 of this volume to Model 3?? This just does not make any sense to me.

BTW, his collegues behind the fire wall apparently do not share his causion expressed in several of his notes issued in Q3, as they did not trim MS TSLA position, instead increasing it slightly in Q3. At more than 4M shares MS is the third largest institutional holder of TSLA (http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/institutional-holdings)

 

[Gerasimental]

This is not surprising, because MS sales proved to be very close to MB Class S sales (current rate of production implies about 50K unit per year, slated to increase in 2015)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but was it not only for US sales that MS was near or beating S Class? I imagine S Class still sells significantly more world wide.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but was it not only for US sales that MS was near or beating S Class? I imagine S Class still sells significantly more world wide.

Model S US sales were on par with MB Class S sales in US in 2013.

In the post, however, I was referring to the current production run rate which is at or above 1000 cars/week, slated to go higher in 2015. Since worldwide sales of MB S class, as was mentioned in my post, run at average of 63-64K units between 2009-2012, the current MS run rate and the 2015 sales are on par with these numbers.

 

[chickensevil]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but was it not only for US sales that MS was near or beating S Class? I imagine S Class still sells significantly more world wide.

WW is like 68k for the S Class. We beat them in 2013 in the US, but it hasn't held up beyond that since Tesla is trying to expand their addressable market.

 

[dmunjal]

Considerable time left in. Market is off to the races. TSLA looks to benefit.

 

[FluxCap]

Considerable time left in. Market is off to the races. TSLA looks to benefit.

Indeed.

FYI I think the only reason we didn't creep higher with the rest of the S&P500 is because crude oil once again started a sharp downward spiral mid-day that isn't stopping, and the market still thinks that provides downside to our bottom line. Which is dumb, but there you have it.

 

[EldestOyster]

I wanted to have my say on the range and MPG comments.

...Tesla has increased the range from 120 something to 250 something miles per charge. [...]
I have stated already, the 120 mile range figure references a typical electric car range before Tesla arrived.

What I see here is an attempt to stretch data..both ways. If you can get 120 miles out of a LEAF, then you can easily go 300 miles in a Model S. If the Model S only went 250, then the LEAF only went 75. Maybe you chose the "best of" the previous EV's, the RAV4EV as your example. But the power train was made by Tesla, so we can't really use that for an example.

I have seen "100 MPG" ICE cars proposed over the years (my memory fails me; I keep picturing Sparrow or Aptera, but those keep turning out to be EV's). I guess the current example is the one from Elio Motors. That's not exactly a family car (two seater) and their wildest claim is 84MPG. This is the cutting edge of ICE technology, at least once all the Federal safety standards are met.

As for Model III, it's logical to associate it with the current business plan, where the performance model would be available first. Except, this is supposed to be the "affordable" EV, so they really should lead off with the low-price example.

 

[tdiggity]

We're approaching the biggest positive price swing since October, about 2 std deviations. The last big one was back in October 28th. A large negative swing was on Dec 1st (-2.42 std dev).

I'm hoping this is a change in direction for us, but there are so many new factors since late October that it's still anyone's guess.

 

[FredTMC]

HOD close would be okay with me...

 

[FluxCap]

Pretty nice close given last week's action. We didn't get as much spillover from S&P buying fest after 2pm Fed notes as I thought, but a good strong rally for TSLA.

 

[RobStark]

I guess the current example is the one from Elio Motors. That's not exactly a family car (two seater) and their wildest claim is 84MPG. This is the cutting edge of ICE technology, at least once all the Federal safety standards are met.

Elio's half motorcycle half car claims it will get 84 MPG highway 49 MPG city.

Not really cutting edge just tiny.


Mitsubishi Mirage with 1.2L 3 Cylinder engine with Auto transmission gets 37 MPG city 44 MPG highway and a combined 40 MPG. That is the best for a non-electrified non-hybrid car sold in America. There are super tiny Kei cars sold in Japan which do better but would not pass Fed crash standards.

The Smart Fortwo gets 34 MPG city 38 MPG highway for a combined 36 MPG with 1L 3 cylinder engine with auto transmission.

 

[joefee]

....
As for Model III, it's logical to associate it with the current business plan, where the performance model would be available first. Except, this is supposed to be the "affordable" EV, so they really should lead off with the low-price example.

I think they will release both the 35 & $90K model 3 within 3 months but Sig's first!

 

[Gerasimental]

I think they will release both the 35 & $90K model 3 within 3 months but Sig's first!

$90K Model 3? Surely double base price is somewhat excessive for a performance version.

 

[mejojo]

I. Just. Can't. Stop....looking at the green number. Over and over. The number doesn't change. The color doesn't change. But. It's green. Just like old times.

 

[Robert.Boston]

I. Just. Can't. Stop....looking at the green number. Over and over. The number doesn't change. The color doesn't change. But. It's green. Just like old times.

Depends on your time frame. A month ago TSLA closed at $250.98. There's a lot of red on my call options positions.