Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Mitthrawnuruodo]

Zacks Downgrades Tesla Motors to Underperform (TSLA) | Ticker Report
A bit more info in this link. The arguments there are not as bad as the SA article.

Almost just as bad. I said back in 2012 I wouldn't take any article or research on Tesla seriously unless the article included the words "We understand Tesla is the first American automotive company of any signficance in almost 100 years". I still hardly see any research entity that 'gets it' when it comes to tesla.


July 19th, $280s are now .25 cents. Might bite at some lower strike prices tomorrow.

 

[austinEV]

More on unicorns, I mean, technical analysis:

TSLA is looking nicely bullish, as is the general market. ADX is bullish with a strong trend at 29. MACD is bullish. Also, interesting observation that TSLA has had a 2.5 week periodicity of something interestnig happening every 2.5 weeks since Feb 24. Most of these were marked by a major price change. Given that there is a strong bullish trend I am calling for a 3-5% up week next week. (last week was +4% so that is not so crazy). That would put us in the high $240's.

View attachment 52636

Dang, I think I was right about something interesting happening (2.5 weeks since last disruption) but not about what that would be. I guess I should have bought a straddle:

 

[justdoit]

Didn't see any articles posted about the LG Chem battery plant so here is one from Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/02/lg-chem-china-idUSL4N0PD0AE20140702

 

[mershaw2001]

This could be it.

Zack's research has absolutely no power to move stocks either. Their research is garbage and written by computer algorithms.

Zack's has been a good contrarian indicator if anything, and stocks have tended to do the exact opposite of what Zack's would recommend.

I think the lack of a sharp drop during the day emphasizes that today's fall was not due to any one thing. If it had been one particular thing, there would be a gap down if it was before the start of trading, or a sharp fall at the time that the news was released. I think that the lack of those indicate today's fall was a technical drop after failing to go above 243. I was expecting further consolidation at 232 and bought more shares at that point. Obviously those are underwater now, but I don't see much further downside because of the uptick in volume at 229. As Curt mentioned, that may have been a final push to get stop losses triggered. The move below 230 was on a huge volume sell bar which wasn't supported by any further large selling, but rather accumulation.

 

[AlMc]

It is the end of the quarter negative FUD time again. Not sure how long this trend will last. Even though Elon was quite firm about NA demand increasing with the last ER call the FUDmeisters are at it again with sales/demand issues. All of us on TMC 'get it' that TM is so supply constrained that they 'allocate' cars to different markets to try to keep everyone reasonably happy about their wait times from order to delivery. Unfortunately, these swings in allocation can be twisted either intentionally to try to move the stock price or by poorly informed 'repeaters of the FUD'.

 

[JRP3]

TD says the LG Chem battery plant in China may be the reason.

It shouldn't be. Zero chance of this having any negative impact on Tesla.

 

[ggr]

It shouldn't be. Zero chance of this having any negative impact on Tesla.

I agree it shouldn't. But I don't agree that there is zero chance of it.

 

[joefee]

Deliveries do not indicate demand support for my previous post above

 

[Jack6591]

The "Endowment Effect" will cause the multitudes invested in the fossil fuel industries to fight Tesla to the throes of death. Days/periods such as today will continue for years. They cannot and will not accept the success of Tesla.

I work with a man, who emphatically argues, that the "scientific community" does NOT believe in anthropogenic climate change. He is short Tesla.

 

[jhm]

I have the feeling the price will snap back tomorrow. No particular reason. We shall see.

 

[EnergyMax]

I am very long, but if we're throwing out guesses, i think speculators bet on gigafactory announcement this week, and are now selling. Weak longs are also selling. I think we'll be in $210-$220 until the first site is announced.

And Tesla will loudly announce the first site. There will be no quiet dig initiated.


Edit.
-------
Once the site is announced we will visit at least $250. Possibly go above ATHs.
That could be any day.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I am very long, but if we're throwing out guesses, i think speculators bet on gigafactory announcement this week, and are now selling. Weak longs are also selling. I think we'll be in $210-$220 until the first site is announced.

And Tesla will loudly announce the first site. There will be no quiet dig initiated.


Edit.
-------
Once the site is announced we will visit at least $250. Possibly go above ATHs.
That could be any day.

This is why I tell people to invest and not speculate on TSLA. The company does things on its own timetable, which can be wildly variable even against the statements of Elon and other execs.

 

[jhm]

This is why I tell people to invest and not speculate on TSLA. The company does things on its own timetable, which can be wildly variable even against the statements of Elon and other execs.

Yep, they very well could be negotiating a better deal. It's better to get a really good deal than to hit arbitrary timelines. Let's judge this by quality of the projects once the facts come out.

In the meantime, it looks like we may have a little buying opportunity left before the narrative is changed.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think the lack of a sharp drop during the day emphasizes that today's fall was not due to any one thing. If it had been one particular thing, there would be a gap down if it was before the start of trading, or a sharp fall at the time that the news was released. I think that the lack of those indicate today's fall was a technical drop after failing to go above 243. I was expecting further consolidation at 232 and bought more shares at that point. Obviously those are underwater now, but I don't see much further downside because of the uptick in volume at 229. As Curt mentioned, that may have been a final push to get stop losses triggered. The move below 230 was on a huge volume sell bar which wasn't supported by any further large selling, but rather accumulation. View attachment 52865

I also think that today's action is most likely due to technical reasons rather than any one precipitating event. For the last 39 trading session TSLA seem to follow well defined regression channel, while spending most of the time right in the middle of it. Excursion from the middle of the channel, while staying within it was bound to happen sooner or later. Tomorrow will test this theory, but I feel that we will stay in the channel, perhaps dropping a little more, may be to the 225ish level before re-bounding either tomorrow or next Monday. I actually thought that TSLA was dropping to 225, and had a limit buy order at $225+, that I ultimately moved to around $229 (bought at $228.90 and $229.50).

 

[aznt1217]

It's like a sale lol. I'm pretty sure that the demand question invoked fear in people for some reason.

 

[RobotGrease]

I also think that today's action is most likely due to technical reasons rather than any one precipitating event. For the last 39 trading session TSLA seem to follow well defined regression channel, while spending most of the time right in the middle of it. Excursion from the middle of the channel, while staying within it was bound to happen sooner or later. Tomorrow will test this theory, but I feel that we will stay in the channel, perhaps dropping a little more, may be to the 225ish level before re-bounding either tomorrow or next Monday. I actually thought that TSLA is dropping to 225, and had a limit buy order at $225+, that I ultimately moved to around $229 (bought at $228.90 and $229.50).
View attachment 52891

I was using a similar channel for the last few days but found what I think is a more accurate one. The original channel, like yours, is based on the trend of the top of the channel. It leaves today's drop being in-explainable. Here is the new channel (green) that I think is a better indicator. It is based on the trend of the bottom of the channel. The blue trend line is just another correlation I was considering.

 

[austinEV]

Or you could just say we haven't visited the 20 day MA for a while. I agree, this feels like a technical move.

 

[Cankooo1]

I will post my charts as well as they do support the thesis that yesterday was technical and probably some panic added to the picture. Anyway lately I do use fibonacci retracement to see how much the price could technically pullback. It was interesting that 227-228 level represent different retracement levels according to the extremes used.

Chart 1: short term fibonacci retracement where 227.22 is 38.2% retracement.

Chart 2: after Q1 period where 227.85 is 23.6% retracement

Chart 3:Anyway I have also added the short perspective in chart 3 representing longest period where you can see clear bounce between 61.8% and 76.4%

Also I believe there are many new short positions initiated yesterday so today will be epic battle. I will try to open as much as possible position under and in low 230 as I do not believe the price can be pushed lower at this point. This pullback was technical requirement for TSLA in term to go to ATH but also may be last buying opportunity before it.

 

[TSLAopt]

If I was a billion dollar hedge fund manager who had a major short positions on in TSLA I might short another crap load of shares today just because hardly anyone is trading today with the half day and holiday weekend and I know it could drag the price down significantly even just shorting an extra 1mm shares to add to my short position.

the panic I could easily cause would help drag the price down further...price manipulation basically because there is no liquidity on a day like today (except for me shorting a crap load of shares)

this is a strategy I would seriously consider if I was a multi-billion dollar hedge fund manager with an existing large short position of TSLA going into today.

 

[aznt1217]

Over 2 mil. volume... I wouldn't say low volume lol.

If I was a billion dollar hedge fund manager who had a major short positions on in TSLA I might short another crap load of shares today just because hardly anyone is trading today with the half day and holiday weekend and I know it could drag the price down significantly even just shorting an extra 1mm shares to add to my short position.

the panic I could easily cause would help drag the price down further...price manipulation basically because there is no liquidity on a day like today (except for me shorting a crap load of shares)

this is a strategy I would seriously consider if I was a multi-billion dollar hedge fund manager with an existing large short position of TSLA going into today.