Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[TSLAopt]

Over 2 mil. volume... I wouldn't say low volume lol.

Yes, this is exactly my point...the unusual high volume today with no news is because I suspect some institutional short(s) decided today is the day to push the price down with putting a ton of sell orders in adding to their short position(s)...getting more 'bang for their buck' because selling 1mm shares today will drive the price down a lot further than selling 1mm shares on any other day.

 

[pz1975]

The RSI for TSLA was over 70 for most of the past 2 weeks, indicating relative overbought. With this drop, it is now 50 (neither overbought or oversold). It can still go down to oversold of course, but I much prefer buying in more at this level.

 

[austinEV]

Just bouncing off the 20day MA. Found good support there.

 

[jhm]

TSLAopt, so if your hypothetical hedge fund manager drove the price down to, say, 226, then where would he be now that the price is back to 229? I get that a big player can move the price around when volume is low, but it's not clear to me what is gained by doing this. Basically, when sellers are bent on driving the price down, it makes sense for buyers to let them take it as low as they can, then buy it back up from there. So what am I missing?

 

[mershaw2001]

TSLAopt, so if your hypothetical hedge fund manager drove the price down to, say, 226, then where would he be now that the price is back to 229? I get that a big player can move the price around when volume is low, but it's not clear to me what is gained by doing this. Basically, when sellers are bent on driving the price down, it makes sense for buyers to let them take it as low as they can, then buy it back up from there. So what am I missing?

I think that he was floating the situation where the hedge fund manager sees that volume will be weak, and therefore sells millions to blow the price down, hoping that at 224 there wouldn't have been super strong support, but rather a catastrophic collapse to the 218 support level.

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLAopt, so if your hypothetical hedge fund manager drove the price down to, say, 226, then where would he be now that the price is back to 229? I get that a big player can move the price around when volume is low, but it's not clear to me what is gained by doing this. Basically, when sellers are bent on driving the price down, it makes sense for buyers to let them take it as low as they can, then buy it back up from there. So what am I missing?

There are always those buyers who want to beat others to the punch. It's not as though everyone is waiting for a bell to be rung so they can all rush back in together. Meanwhile, those hedge fund managers who may have sold short the last couple of days in hopes of forcing a cascade of weak longs who had set tight stop loss limits, then cover their short positions at a lowered price and perhaps even go long.

 

[RobotGrease]

I give up....too many unicorns

 

[mershaw2001]

I give up....too many unicorns

It is my expectation that tesla was in a channel moving up but had gotten into "too high" a channel, a little too fast and too high for the current expectations. it feel hard, and my expectation is that it will return to a channel uptrend starting from the current level. We don't have negativity or fear being pumped into the stock, so I don't see a downtrend. I think we start to see the same uptrend we just saw for the past week beginning at this point, which usually builds into a big up on catalytic good news.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I also think that today's action is most likely due to technical reasons rather than any one precipitating event. For the last 39 trading session TSLA seem to follow well defined regression channel, while spending most of the time right in the middle of it. Excursion from the middle of the channel, while staying within it was bound to happen sooner or later. Tomorrow will test this theory, but I feel that we will stay in the channel, perhaps dropping a little more, may be to the 225ish level before re-bounding either tomorrow or next Monday. I actually thought that TSLA was dropping to 225, and had a limit buy order at $225+, that I ultimately moved to around $229 (bought at $228.90 and $229.50).
View attachment 52891
View attachment 52892

Well, it looks that after the excursion towards the bottom of the channel at 224 TSLA is poised to move in the upper portion of the channel, while maintaining the "momentum" driven march up towards ATH. The speed of the ascend of the regression line (middle line of the channel) is approximately 5 points per week, so if TSLA continues to stay on the same trajectory it will take about 5 weeks to move from 240 to ATH of 265. This will put us squarely into the ER week. I think that barring any major announcement - GF - it is likely that we'll stay on this trajectory till the ER.

 

[Krugerrand]

...too many unicorns

No such thing; you can never have too many unicorns.

 

[brianman]

No such thing; you can never have too many unicorns.

Oh yes you can...

 

[RobotGrease]

Oh yes you can...

View attachment 52966

Looks to be forming a bull flag.

 

[Causalien]

So I did some analysis as I am thinking about buying in. So I will share my rainbow charting with you guys

Lo and behold the wonders of Fib retracement. We bumped into $241, which is the 161% level drawn based on the fall from $193.56 to $117.11 during October~ November 2013. At the same time. $240 represent the 50% retracement for the gap from $216.24 to $265. It was a technically significant hardpoint. Not one of the weak indicators. My guess is, it will take two tries to break through and is scheduled to happen after July opex. Unless Elon comes back from summer vacation and announce Gigafactory is already built.

That said. I took two previous channels from the runup Jan ~ March 2014 and a less enthusiastic channel pre april 2013 and superimposed on the current channel. This is done as a way to compare the enthusiasm of the current runup to that of the past and model what the price should be in the future based on the two scenarios. The current channel seems to be perfectly in sync with the Jan~ march 2014 channel. I wonder if it will last the same 5 months as last time.

The interesting part out of the whole analysis is that TSLA volatility is sitting at 0.5 and was actually at the upper 0.4 section. Which for TSLA, is very low.

An interesting question that someone asked me about a company they want me to analyze. And that is: Is it possible that there's an analyst with the company that tells the CEO when to announce stuff based on when it is best to pierce certain technical indicators. My answer is: No. because that company of 100 people is too small to have someone like that. However, it is not impossible for a company of 1000 to have one person dedicated to it.

Please disregard all horizontal dotted line at the bottom half. I haven't had time to cleanup my drawings yet.

 

[vgrinshpun]

It looks like there is an opportunity to test the notion that Market grew out of hysteria over Model S accidents:

Twitter / ABC7: #BREAKINGNEWS A Tesla splits ...

 

[NigelM]

Mod Note: discussion on crash was moved over here - Stolen Model S crashes after police pursuit-7-4-2014

Obviously market impact, if any, may continue in this thread.

 

[techmaven]

At least there are 3 days and 3 nights for the news to settle in and for details to come out. Could be a terrific opportunity if the market reacts adversely. First things though, I hope all the innocent aren't hurt much.

 

[FredTMC]

At least there are 3 days and 3 nights for the news to settle in and for details to come out. Could be a terrific opportunity if the market reacts adversely. First things though, I hope all the innocent aren't hurt much.

I don't think a high speed crash involving a police chase of a stolen tesla will have any negative affect on the stock price.

 

[NigelM]

I personally doubt there will be any serious market impact; this is hardly one that can be nailed on the car.

 

[pz1975]

I personally doubt there will be any serious market impact; this is hardly one that can be nailed on the car.

I agree. Maybe if the market was open today we would have seen some reactionary selling (would have been a good buying op. Considering the details (stolen, over 100 mph, car cut in half (wow)), then a fire and likely death to the driver would be expected. I read that he was dead but revived by paramedics and is now in critical condition. I would imagine he won't pull through or will be "brain dead" in the ICU.

 

[TSLAopt]

At least there are 3 days and 3 nights for the news to settle in and for details to come out. Could be a terrific opportunity if the market reacts adversely. First things though, I hope all the innocent aren't hurt much.

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