Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[igotzzoom]

Tesla was actually quite famous while he was alive. Even though the power plants opted to utilize Tesla's invention of alternating current, rather than Edison's preferred direct current, many of the plants were still named after Edison and perpetuated his fame. Tesla eventually became almost forgotten until a car company was named after him.

I just saw the tweet from Elon about a $1 million donation to the Nikola Tesla Museum in Long Island. There's already a Nikola Tesla Museum in Belgrade, Serbia. http://www.tesla-museum.org/meni_en.htm. Do we know if there are any Model S' on-the-ground in Serbia? Now THAT would be a picture...a Model S in front of the original Tesla museum! :smile:

 

[Twiddler]

Actually, Tesla is from Smiljan, Croatia, where a museum exists in his honor (see my post with pictures from our pilgrimage in May). The house in which he was raised and his father's chapel have been reconstructed there on their original sites (after having been destroyed in the Homeland War in 1991). Smiljan is very rural and unfortunately I don't think the Tesla rally made it there (although they were in Zadar last month, which is about 2h away). Was still cool to see little Model S magnets in the gift shop.

 

[RobotGrease]

So back to stock movement... Here's the unicorn of the day:

 

[RobStark]

Actually, Tesla is from Smiljan, Croatia, where a museum exists in his honor (see my post with pictures from our pilgrimage in May). The house in which he was raised and his father's chapel have been reconstructed there on their original sites (after having been destroyed in the Homeland War in 1991).

Nikola Tesla was born in Smiljan a subject of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. His father Milutin Tesla was a Serbian Orthodox Priest and his mother Georgina Duka Tesla was also an ethnic Serb.

That makes Nikola a Serb not a Croat.

 

[FANGO]

Nikola Tesla was born in Smiljan a subject of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. His father Milutin Tesla was a Serbian Orthodox Priest and his mother Georgina Duka Tesla was also an ethnic Serb.

That makes Nikola a Serb not a Croat.

We don't need to start this. Everyone in Eastern Europe claims Tesla as their own. Also France and the USA.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

We don't need to start this. Everyone in Eastern Europe claims Tesla as their own. Also France and the USA.

The gorgeous ideas of Nikola Tesla do not know any nationality, they were born with the freedom of science.

 

[uselesslogin]

Short interest is still at 24 million shares as of market close June 27th. The closed around $239 that day.

 

[jhm]

It seems this 10% tax break in China may have practically no impact on Tesla's earnings or by extension its stock price. While Tesla is supply constrained, demand gains in China just draw supply from other matkets, yielding no incremental sales globally. The tax waiver is good through the end of 2017. If Tesla remains supply constrained through that period, then it may never benefit from this waiver. Indirectly, it may benefit from building a stronger brand and distribution channels in China based on greater affordability, but that is really a longer-term proposition. So this news is great for ChineseTesla customers, but meh for investors.

 

[Chickenlittle]

It seems this 10% tax break in China may have practically no impact on Tesla's earnings or by extension its stock price. While Tesla is supply constrained, demand gains in China just draw supply from other matkets, yielding no incremental sales globally. The tax waiver is good through the end of 2017. If Tesla remains supply constrained through that period, then it may never benefit from this waiver. Indirectly, it may benefit from building a stronger brand and distribution channels in China based on greater affordability, but that is really a longer-term proposition. So this news is great for ChineseTesla customers, but meh for investors.

I believe you are wrong to suspect they will remain supply constrained that long. They will not have any fear of expanding capacity given that Panasonic is increasing battery supply, extra equipment can be switched to gen3 in future if they over estimated the demand.

 

[jhm]

I believe you are wrong to suspect they will remain supply constrained that long. They will not have any fear of expanding capacity given that Panasonic is increasing battery supply, extra equipment can be switched to gen3 in future if they over estimated the demand.

Yes, Tesla is quite willing to expand its capacity. My concern is that Panasonic is not bold enough to expand fast enough to meet demand. Only the gigafactory will alleviate this. So specifically it is the cell supply that concerns me. Perhaps demand in China could give Panasonic a little more courage. That would be a good thing.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Yes, Tesla is quite willing to expand its capacity. My concern is that Panasonic is not bold enough to expand fast enough to meet demand. Only the gigafactory will alleviate this. So specifically it is the cell supply that concerns me. Perhaps demand in China could give Panasonic a little more courage. That would be a good thing.

Exponential growth in demand in China may also accelerate plans to build a second factory there. It's a good question to ask Diarmuid O'Connell, VP of Business Development, next week at TMC Connect.

 

[Curt Renz]

It would not surprise me if Elon has now determined that it would be most effective to break ground simultaneously at two or three potential Gigafactory sites. That way no state would appear to be the frontrunner, thus encouraging increased competition regarding concessions to the company.

 

[everman]

It would not surprise me if Elon has now determined that it would be most effective to break ground simultaneously at two or three potential Gigafactory sites. That way no state would appear to be the frontrunner, thus encouraging increased competition regarding concessions to the company.

I agree, Curt. I think that the ever evolving clarity of global demand and the resulting requirements for material supply could easily yield a conclusion of two gigafactories in parallel. This would also protect against any actual startup issues once the factories are built. Having the building and capital equipment in place does not immediately result in high yields and output. Two factories working through startup ramp and yield issues would supply a much more reliable stream of initial material for the first glut of Gen III orders.

 

[TD1]

I believe you are wrong to suspect they will remain supply constrained that long. They will not have any fear of expanding capacity given that Panasonic is increasing battery supply, extra equipment can be switched to gen3 in future if they over estimated the demand.

no matter how optimistic one is regarding the demand, the 10% tax break will increase the demand and therefore push the date further out where Tesla should become demand constrained.

 

[aznt1217]

It would not surprise me if Elon has now determined that it would be most effective to break ground simultaneously at two or three potential Gigafactory sites. That way no state would appear to be the frontrunner, thus encouraging increased competition regarding concessions to the company.

I think he actually stated this, but not so much as a competition play, but more of a risk management play. At the end of the day they'll break ground and have multiple sites which is great for future planning. I think the key here is we are all focusing on a gigafactory... and not gigafactories

 

[Curt Renz]

I think he actually stated this, but not so much as a competition play, but more of a risk management play. At the end of the day they'll break ground and have multiple sites which is great for future planning. I think the key here is we are all focusing on a gigafactory... and not gigafactories

In response to a question at the May 7 conference call regarding the groundbreaking of the first Gigafactory, Elon answered, "...probably next month." He then said one or two more other sites could have ground broken a month or two later. The announcement of which site was to enter full scale construction would be made later this year. He noted that the cost of extra groundbreaking would be far less than the cost of delay in completion of the first Gigafactory.

My conjecture today was that perhaps those two or three groundbreakings would occur simultaneously. That may explain why no ground was broken in June.

 

[AlMc]

In response to a question at the May 7 conference call regarding the groundbreaking of the first Gigafactory, Elon answered, "...probably next month." He then said one or two more other sites could have ground broken a month or two later. The announcement of which site was to enter full scale construction would be made later this year. He noted that the cost of extra groundbreaking would be far less than the cost of delay in completion of the first Gigafactory.

My conjecture today was that perhaps those two or three groundbreakings would occur simultaneously. That may explain why no ground was broken in June.

Yes, this has been my thought for some time now. It makes sense to keep the states competing for the 'first operational' Gfactory as long as possible by breaking ground simultaneously on 2-3. Eventually TM will need all three (and more) Gfactories so why not keep the competition going to see what state can 'win' while you are continuing to get tax incentives and red tape cutting from the competitors.

 

[Curt Renz]

Huff Post Science today has an article comparing Nikola Tesla with Thomas Edison, and is conducting a poll asking who was the better inventor: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/11/nikola-tesla-thomas-edison-poll_n_5577512.html

 

[mitch672]

Thomas Edison was a hack, a CEO, not an inventor. Our entire modern way of life can be attributed to Tesla, AC power, the AC Induction Motor, even Radio (wasn't really Marconi). To even try a comparision is an insult. Point to this, pretty much sums it up: Why Nikola Tesla was the greatest geek who ever lived - The Oatmeal

 

[kenliles]

It would not surprise me if Elon has now determined that it would be most effective to break ground simultaneously at two or three potential Gigafactory sites. That way no state would appear to be the frontrunner, thus encouraging increased competition regarding concessions to the company.

I think he's going to break ground on all 3 - and stagger build all 3