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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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Is it possible that they'll have a booth but will not be giving a press conference?

Also, where are you seeing the map? The NAIAS site is showing the 2015 map as unavailable: North American International Auto Show - MediaRoom - 2015 NAIAS Floor Plan


Maybe Elon's going to pull a fast one and do something bold and unveil the Model X at CES in Las Vegas the week before, unbeknownst to everyone, thus pre-empting the entire NAIAS convention, and winding up owning the CES news cycle and drowning out NAIAS?
 
Is it possible that they'll have a booth but will not be giving a press conference?

Also, where are you seeing the map? The NAIAS site is showing the 2015 map as unavailable: North American International Auto Show - MediaRoom - 2015 NAIAS Floor Plan They were next to Bentley and across from Audi at the 2014 show: http://www.naias.com/media/23108/2014-floorplans-media-85-x-11.pdf
I emailed them and asked for it when it became available. I will see if I can dig it up for you. I also contacted the communications people at TM and got an email confirmation that they will attend. I was concerned because of the Michigan law. Afraid they might be banned.

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Is it possible that they'll have a booth but will not be giving a press conference?

Also, where are you seeing the map? The NAIAS site is showing the 2015 map as unavailable: North American International Auto Show - MediaRoom - 2015 NAIAS Floor Plan They were next to Bentley and across from Audi at the 2014 show: http://www.naias.com/media/23108/2014-floorplans-media-85-x-11.pdf
this is message from the marketing manager:

Hi Al,


Thank you for reaching out to Tesla Motors.


I am happy to confirm that Tesla will be exhibiting at NAIAS next year. We hope to see you there!


Warm Regards,

Jenna


*****I tried to copy and paste the. Map....no go.....,But they have a small area....Audi, MB and BWW all close to them with about 5x or more floor space.....if you really want the map pm me your email and I will forward
 
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I emailed them and asked for it when it became available. I will see if I can dig it up for you. I also contacted the communications people at TM and got an email confirmation that they will attend. I was concerned because of the Michigan law. Afraid they might be banned.

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this is message from the marketing manager:

Hi Al,


Thank you for reaching out to Tesla Motors.


I am happy to confirm that Tesla will be exhibiting at NAIAS next year. We hope to see you there!


Warm Regards,
Jenna


Thanks Al. So it does seem like they'll be exhibiting but still appears that there will be no press conference during the press preview.
 
Lol. They still don't get it. They also still theorize 50 dollars as a good value

If TSLA drops below 200, I'm on the phone to friends and family telling them of this opportunity to buy into Tesla at a remarkable price. Of course I will give the volatility speech. It won't go much below $200 if it cracks that amount because too many people want a piece of this company. With so many analysts predicting $300+ share prices, the lure of buying is just too great to pass up. Tesla shares have fallen after hitting rather small speedbumps. The company's plans are still very intact.
 
I am very surprised by tesla price action. Detractors first said that people less likely to buy but others point out that this price range buyer is not affected by a lower gas savings. Data bears that out with them almost sold out for the next qtr. then detractors claim that the mass car is less likely to be bought with cheaper gas. They forget that that car will not be out for 3 years. Who expects gas to be low that long? Also battery costs dropping battery cars to reach price parity then so cheap gas moot then. They seem to forget model X coming out at perfect time with SUV sales up as well
 
This morning I had a look at the daily chart.
I do have to admit that, to my opinion, current technicals do not look too good.
What do the more experienced investors think about the attached chart?
Personally I think there might be some positive catalysts just around the corner (P85Ds on their way to their owners, P85D reviews, SolarCity sold more than 1000 Tesla li-ion grid storage solutions, ...) but in absence of news should pay some attention to technicals?!
TSLA-2014-12-11.jpg
 
Amongst conventional cars, there is a tradeoff between performance and fuel economy. You can high performance or high fuel Efficiency,.but not both. Naturally consumers prefer higher performance, but when the price of fuel is high they are more willing to sacrifice performance to save some money at the pump. Thus, sales of high performance cars goes up when oil goes down.


What is utterly unique about Tesla is that their cars are both high performance and high fuel economy. There is no tradeoff. You do not have to sacrifice performance just to avoid pain at the pump. The FUD argument is to pigeonhole Tesla as a fuel economy vehicle and as such to suggest that its appeal will suffer the same fate of vehicles that sacrifice performance to obtain fuel efficiency. They are trying to penalize Tesla for fuel efficiency. But this is simply a denial that Tesla is primarily a high performance player. When oil prices come down, it is not simply that pain at the pump is reduced, but everything becomes cheaper, consumers have more discretionary income, and the economy is just more favorable for splurging the things you want. So car buyers feel freer to splurge on higher performance cars because they can.

High consumer confidence is favorable to Tesla. When the price of oil falls, car buyers set their sights on buying higher performance vehicles, not because they are cheaper, but because they are more desirable. In such a buying climate, Tesla can compete quite handily. The Model S is among the highest performing cars in world. No doubt the Model X will be the highest perfirming SUV on the market. How about the Model 3? Should we not expect that the Model 3 will be the highest performance vehicle in its class and price range? So if the car buying public is in the mood to buy a higher performance vehicle, Tesla will stack up quite favorably. No compromise.

I think the key thing to watch for is that car buyer sentiment turns toward higher performance. As this happen, Tesla will have no difficulty finding willing buyers for their cars. There has been some concern that the luxury performance segment is just too small to accomodate Tesla's growth ambition and this becomes the motive for trying to move down market. However if cheap oil ushers in an era whereby more consumers move up market, then this would be quite fortuitous for Tesla. If oil is still cheap in 2018, it could mean that Models S and X are within reach for a greater number of families. Consider a family with two cars. As the price of gas comes down, they have more monthly income left over with which to buy there next car. They may find that the savings in gas on the gas car they keep makes it easier to afford the monthly payment on their new Model X. Thus, the lower gas prices actually facilitates going upmarket to a performance EV. Conversely, if gas prices go up substantially this would put a strain on their monthly finances. So their confidence as a consumer will be directly impacted by their expectation of gas prices. High consumer confidence emboldens families to stretch into high end Tesla purchases. So let's keep our eye on consumer sentimant moving upmarket.
 
As someone trained in classical financial economics, I'm baffled by technical analysis. There is no support for technical analysis that I'm aware of in the academic literature. Is there any 'proof' that this is anything more than people trying to read patterns in clouds or chicken entrails?

Nope... I think it works sometimes only because people believe it works. If enough people subscribe to it, then it can work. But then, it is completely ignored during other times when real news moves the markets.

I think we hit a lull in the positive news cycle so all we have are some slightly negative stories and technical analysis to fill the news cycle.
 
As someone trained in classical financial economics, I'm baffled by technical analysis. There is no support for technical analysis that I'm aware of in the academic literature. Is there any 'proof' that this is anything more than people trying to read patterns in clouds or chicken entrails?

Agreed, and why it's just as likely that the Unicorn exists and is in Reindeer disguise.
 
Well, the cool thing about these kind of knives are that the market can and will reverse gravity for most stocks.

yeah, I wish I was holding just stock. I am going to migrate more to that, and just sit back and go to sleep with a 5 year timeframe. What I did INSTEAD was leverage up with some Dec 22 calls when I thought it was oversold at $230. In the 240's I had bought some March '15s that I am increasingly nervous about. My 2016 leaps I am comfortable with and completely comfortable with my shares. But I tried to juice and got caught in the cookie jar.

I am stubbornly holding. The Dec calls are probably a lost cause but the rest might be ok.
 
fwiw, if anyone is trying to figure out whether the "D" delay will impact Tesla hitting Q4 delivery numbers (and result in some short term FUD distortion), there was this from member NSX1992 on the P85 tracking delivery thread last night:

"I called my DS today and was informed that I am in the last batch and the delivery will be between 12/27 and 12/31. She expects all the P85Ds will be delivered in late December (I assume North America). I had ordered a S85 on 9/2 and changed it to P85D when the tan interior became an option (64306). I asked why the delay for others and she said "didn't you get the memo from Jerome?". I said no and she thought that was strange but I told her I knew the content. I asked her if the problem was the front or rear seats and she thought it was the front seats. Then she said something interesting that the new seats got a 4.9 safety rating and Tesla would not be pleased with anything lower than the perfect 5s they have received and therefore were making the changes. It makes sense to me.

I have been promised Late December since the beginning so I can't complain. I was just hoping for a Christmas present instead of New Years. At least now I don't have to look at my dashboard twice a day."

just one comment from one delivery specialist being relayed, but perhaps of interest.
 
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