Would love to see a chart with 200 day MA and 50 day MA so we could gain perspective on this move up. Oh keepers of the charts, cloaked in ye ancient arts of TA, share thine magic with us, and help us slay the dragons of FUD.
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Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Agree. The retaking of the 200 DMA would mean to me that TSLA has become "don't care" with respect to the oil prices matter. Then they can also lower the oil price to $30, TSLA will have some troubles for some weeks but then TSLA will surge again like it's happening now. IMO investors are understanding that cheap fossil fuels are not good for the future of mankind.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I don't know if they're thinking of the future of mankind, but they do seem to start dissociating TSLA from oil prices. It's the first time since Nov 28 that oil is down and we are up (then again, so is NASDAQ).
200 DMA is currently at $230.80. I chose to view this irrational excursion downward as an early Christmas gift from Wall Street, and today's bounce as the stocking stuffer from Janet Yellen. I don't have any particular belief that the 200 DMA matters, but I do think the stock is undervalued at the current market price.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
I hope we're finally seeing a Christmas rally. I'm buying today. I've bought on the way down over the last months each time a major drop occurred, hope this is a better strategy and I will make up some of the heavy losses. 
Now if only the rally would continue into Jan 17 '15, I'd be golden... :biggrin:
I hold 240, 260, 280 Jan '15 calls, 220 Mar '15 calls (went up 30% today) and 295 Jun '15 calls (up a whopping 50%). Except for the Mar ones, all still in the red though... but hope returned.
Now if only the rally would continue into Jan 17 '15, I'd be golden... :biggrin:I hold 240, 260, 280 Jan '15 calls, 220 Mar '15 calls (went up 30% today) and 295 Jun '15 calls (up a whopping 50%). Except for the Mar ones, all still in the red though... but hope returned.
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mejojo
Active Member
I took a flier on 202.50 Dec 20th on Monday and that's working out nicely so far, but only wish I had fired a few more bullets at that one. (It's not nearly enough to counteract my assuredly long lost 240s of the same date.)
I'm trying to figure out whether to cash these out today or whether we'll see a rally extension tomorrow. Any thoughts? Where IS that crystal ball when you need it?
I'm trying to figure out whether to cash these out today or whether we'll see a rally extension tomorrow. Any thoughts? Where IS that crystal ball when you need it?
What a coincidence, I have almost exactly the same positions. I already had a sell for half of the 202.5's at double the price paid, which triggered yesterday. So the other half are "free" at this point, so I'm going to let them run until almost expiry. I may even let them exercise to sell on Monday, if it looks like the run is continuing (I have enough reserves to do that). And as I type, TSLA is up another half a percent...
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I would cash them in now. If you want to bet on another big move tomorrow, you can buy some OTM calls (say, 220 or 225) with only an appropriate fraction of today's profits. You could tune it so that the net profit is in the same ballpark if you're right, but you get to lock in a big chunk if you're wrong, as opposed to losing it all.
Runarbt
Active Member
InTheShadows
Active Member
Yea me too but I put in an order to sell them yesterday when they hit 100% gain. Oh well, a gain is a gain and after the past couple of weeks I was glad to see one for a change. Then the stock ran off.
I have dec220's that I was planning on selling today. Now I don't know what to do, they will loose a lot over night, however tomorrow might be another nice day.
mejojo
Active Member
I cashed my 202.50s and 215s that I was holding. Not reinvesting those funds...plenty of other options will advance my position on a further run.
Regarding crystal ball, I highly recommend The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver. Nate details the art of using probability and statistics when attempting predictions as applied to real world circumstances.
It seems to me that predicting TSLA movement in the short term is quite difficult if not impossible, one can get it right but mainly due to luck. Odds can be greatly improved in longer term trades.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I think the market just got clued into the fact that oil and Tesla are not strongly correlated. Kensho cites a two year correlation of 0.12, which is what I got a week ago. For those that think the immediate market perceived correlation is what matters, you still have to consider that perceptions do change.
mejojo
Active Member
sundaymorning
Active Member
Gerasimental
Member
I'm no economics whiz, but the markets benefits from rates staying low irrespective of economic strength dont they? The very vague language about potential future rate increases won't be what determines the market's expectation of future economic performance. There are far better indicators for economic strength and these are all already taken into account of.
MartinAustin
Active Member
FourBucks
Member
InTheShadows
Active Member
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