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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Maybe that the strategy of Tesla was waiting that the oil prices bottomed. So next week would be the right time to reveal their "latest stuff" IMO.
COMPETITION, SCHMPETITION. There are over one billion cars on the planet. There is more than enough room in the market or a company that consistently builds the best rated and reviewed cars in the industry.
Wall Street UNDERWHELMED with the dual-motor Model S................REALLY, a 691 HP beast that uses no gasoline, and they are underwhelmed.
We have absolutely lost perspective. The world is invested in big oil and ICE manufacturing, those industries dominate the advertising budgets everywhere. The "endowment effect" and "Media Bias" has us arguing nonsense.
Once again, Tesla builds a car that accelerates like a McLaren F1, handles like a Ferrari, and rides like a Cadillac.......while using no gas, yet we are hand-wringing over deliveries and competition.
The industry is just pissed over Tesla dominating their media coverage.....GOOD.
sundaymorning
Active Member
It's very apparent from your post that you are either short or are entering a short position, so let's be fair & civil, and allow me to chime in on your points to further educate you on Tesla and the history behind the members that you've mentioned above.
First lets start with Luv2b, who was a very notable and well respected member of this community; he was absolutely knowledgeable and skilled in bringing us useful information in a time where transparency in Tesla can easily be found by sorting out vin #'s, those days are gone..It is sad to admit, but we have entered a time where Tesla has changed its Vin# delivery system, to confuse us, as well as shorts. Even the brightest members on this forum (and I can assure you there are many), can no longer make sense of Tesla's data and deliveries. Although Luv2B was logical in his analysis early on, he was wrong in some notable areas such as the future guidance and potential of this company as time progressed. If you follow Luv2B's threads, like many of us here, you could easily see that he most likely sold off most his shares in the $60s-$80s range, he/she was absolutely hurting by the time Tesla shot up to the $90s, and by the time Elon decided to pump $100 million of his own money to guarantee the value of tesla, Luv2B was done, as he most likely let a good train get away from him. Due to Luv2B's miscalculations of Tesla's short and long-term fundamentals, he missed out on one of the fastest growing company to hit Wall Street; his posts were miserable to read for some time, which led a member on this forum to ask if Luv2B got his shares taken away from him via "call/put spread." I suspect, that due to his massive and unfortunate error in analyzing Tesla, he was forced to chase the stock upwards and it most likely, got away from him. Which may explain why he is no longer here contributing his time with us, a void that nevertheless, was filled by other members, namely Sleepyhead, DaveT and one of my favorites, Curt Rentz (whom you failed to mention, and I suspect, because he is still very LONG tesla).
Moving forward to Sleepy, another notable and accomplished member, I, like you and all others, absolutely adored him. He was intelligent, had everything going for him, including a new daughter, whom he has credited for some very risky, but profitable weekly calls. One of his most admirable trading strategy, was that he was able to overcome fear whenever the stock drops for no apparent reason, and threw down a good amount of change to buy weekly calls that would prove profitable on many occasions *wink wink*. Although he has proven time and time again, that buying on Tesla dips were profitable ventures, he couldn't master the opposite spectrum of trades based on fear--which was greed. Had he stuck with Tesla and went long, I think he would have still been here with us; or maybe he still is, but is too busy taking care of his lovely daughter that he no longer cares about trading. Sleepy's strategy has always been mobilizing funds towards "undervalued" stocks such was solar and most notoriously, speculative companies such as GTAT. This may have been where he has gotten himself demoralized, because greed led him to a company that quickly filed for Bankruptcy. I do not know the amount he invested in GTAT, but I assume from his post, exuberance, lobbying, and Seeking Alpha articles as well as comments, that his investments may have been significant. While Sleepy and others jumped the Tesla train and converted much of their portfolios to GTAT, I advocated the "sure route," which was and still is, IMO Tesla. Members who allowed themselves to be taken away by greed, may end up being doomed by it, I rest my case with GTAT. During that time, I stood behind Tesla for many reasons: Elon, Model S sales, Model X deposits, Gigafactory buildout, Gen 3 development, quality engineers joining Tesla from the likes of Apple, Google, Mercedes, Aston Martin (just to name a few), energy storage potential, guidence, execution abilities, etc.. To me, the Tesla story hasn't changed, it's a "sure" bet long term, although I'm interested in making money, I don't care so much about making $millions in the stock market in a short period, as long as Tesla gets to Gen 3 and sells 500k cars a year by 2020-2022, my family will do pretty well. Hence, many of us stayed long Tesla, this is where Sleepy's and this community's path diverges. Some chose to stay long with a company with limitless potential to earn 300%-2000% while others are out to make a quick buck and bail.
As for DaveT, he is very Long Tesla, so long that you can subscribe for his Tesla Weekly articles
. I don't think I have to expand or question DaveT's commitment to Tesla Long position, but I you may want to read his article to understand why your comment is so far off base. He is by far, one of the most intelligent trader you will ever cross paths with, having him on board with Tesla's investment community only validates our long position with Tesla, so I'm glad you mentioned his name, it shows we are on the right side of the trade. For those of you who are new to this forum, the best trading strategy I've picked up from members, mentors as well as failed traders is to look over Curt Rentz's earlier posts and responses. One of the best advice I've gotten from Curt was if you believe in a company with disruptive potential to an industry, don't lose your position in that company to trade short term. Curt's prophetic advice was that when you compare data from a amature long term investor in a disruptive company like Tesla, against the best of the best short term traders in the industry, you'll practically end up in the same place years down the road such as 2020. The difference between long and short term traders is that NO longs can be left behind if the train takes off in the right direction, but one bad trade short-term may leave you regretting a chase of this train when it leaves the station and goes higher and higher.
I would advise you to thoroughly examine the names you've mentioned above before spilling out FUD and negativity on this forum. Despite the recent drop you've mentioned, many veterans here have seen and experienced these types of drops before, and I think I speak for many of us when I state that your FUDDing does absolutely nothing to deter mine or our belief in a disruptive company like Tesla, we are smarter than you would take us for. Yet, one more point I should mention is that the recent drop may have made some of the Longs on here richer, just bc Some members haven't spoken or contributed here lately, doesn't mean they didn't buy some insurance in case of a drop
I hope this is the case for Sleepy and Luv2B. As always, do your research and if Tesla drops to $7, SMH, well it won't, so I won't waste my time with that, but you can enjoy dreaming of it as I'm dreaming of this buying opertunity. See you in 2020.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Model X is in beta testing, I don't beieve RC (release candidate or production intent) cars exist yet and it's not Tesla's style to reveal at NAIAS. The X will maybe not even be there but if it is it won't be the final version, that will come at a reveal to reservation holders sometime in the next several months.
Don't expect to see Model 3 at NAIAS, Tesla has way to much going on in many different areas to have gotten very far forward on Model3; again also remember that Tesla has a history of not doing reveals at auto shows, they prefer to do their own reveals in California.
Finally, Model 3 will most likely hit the streets in 2918 so it would be crazy to let everyone see it 3 years in advance.
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Gerasimental
Member
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Gerasimental
Member
Was just kidding. I could infer from '3 years in advance' and the fact that 2918 would be utterly absurd that he meant 2018.
Is 2017 off the table then? I'm still not willing to dismiss it since we just don't know anything about Model 3 development really.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Thank you for a great post. I will try to find those earlier posts. Unfortunately, I didn't come across the Tesla story until last year, so I missed the "early" boat and amazing run up. The point excerpted here is profound, and helps confirm my recent realization that I should just relax and hold my long TSLA, stop reading the short-term thread so frequently, and take my broker's advise to not invest time in learning about option trading. YMMV.
Well, it has begun somewhat well. Elon tweets:
Elon Musk @elonmusk · 3 tim för 3 timmar sedan Didn't get good landing/impact video. Pitch dark and foggy. Will piece it together from telemetry and ... actual pieces.
0 svar 1 298 retweets 1 245 favoriter
Elon Musk @elonmusk · 3 tim för 3 timmar sedan Ship itself is fine. Some of the support equipment on the deck will need to be replaced...
0 svar 1 380 retweets 1 104 favoriter
Elon Musk @elonmusk · 3 tim för 3 timmar sedan Rocket made it to drone spaceport ship, but landed hard. Close, but no cigar this time. Bodes well for the future tho.
0 svar 4 091 retweets 2 410 favoriter
Elon Musk @elonmusk · 3 tim för 3 timmar sedan Ascent phase good. Dragon deployed to Space Station rendezvous orbit.
0 svar 698 retweets 886 favoriter
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Then I don't understand the significance, since the second row always had 3 seats.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Good summary sundaymorning! I would add that luvb2b was a she and yes, she got out too early but made an absolute boatload of money on calls (far in excess of $1 million).
Sleepy was for the most part right, but a bit overconfident and got seriously burned on GTAT shenanigans.
Looking forward a lot now to Detroit! Hit them in their home town!
Sleepy was for the most part right, but a bit overconfident and got seriously burned on GTAT shenanigans.
Looking forward a lot now to Detroit! Hit them in their home town!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
But there is, as always, two sides to that: the more the big manufacturers begin building real BEVs the more it solidifies that BEVs are the future which really helps the business case for Tesla long term. Tesla is, and will have to go to stay being, the one to beat.
NigelM
Recovering Member
I don't think folks should get their hopes up. This was posted in the Model X section last night:
I added the bold emphasis. As I mentioned before Tesla has a history of revealing stuff at customer events in Fremont or Hawthorne, they don't operate like other car companies and rarely show anything new at auto-shows.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
You're probably right Nigel. Last year's event where Jerome unexpectedly pre-announced them beating guidance handsomely is not likely to repeat this year.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
On the other hand would Tesla send out invitations just for the P85D, Model S, and our latest show exhibits, if the latter didn't include something especially interesting?
Johan, Completely agree that this bodes well for the adoption of BEVs and probably TSLA long term as the positive name recognition in the BEVs goes to TM. However, short term TSLA may be hurt but present another buying opportunity. I have been patiently waiting for my own personal PT in the 180s before committing more funds to stock/J17s.
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