Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[uselesslogin]

On the other hand would Tesla send out invitations just for the P85D, Model S, and our latest show exhibits, if the latter didn't include something especially interesting?

I'll chime in on the will we see the X thing. I think the answer is no. Not until we are considerably closer to actual X deliveries. Perhaps in the next earnings release they will mention a rough date for a reveal so that people know it is still coming. But at the end of the day if the X is truly special and they reveal it early then they might miss out on a whole lot of P85D customers that might wait for the X if they see it now.

With the Bolt announcement if that rumor proves to be true and possible surprises from other automakers we might even be in for some hurt this NAIAS. But things will be looking better when the earnings release comes around I think because I think the street will be surprised by guidance. Anyway, these are just my thoughts, and I've been wrong many times before.

Oh and not to mention, if the oil price starts recovering or even stabilizing at some point that might provide TSLA a boost as well, even if it shouldn't.

Otherwise patience, this looks to be a great year for Tesla and TSLA. (And for that matter SpaceX)

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I'm thinking the Chevy Bolt announcement will hurt us Monday.

I reviewed the blog posts on the Chevy Bolt from Autoblog and Wall Street Journal.

Autoblog claims to have information that the Bolt will be built on a Chevy Sonic platform, which if correct, means it would be a subcompact (smaller than a Honda Civic or a Nissan LEAF). A similar sized car would be the limited-run, lease-only, Honda Fit EV.

If this rumor is true, the Bolt would not compete directly with Model 3. However, I don't expect the mainstream press to understand this on Monday.

But there is, as always, two sides to that: the more the big manufacturers begin building real BEVs the more it solidifies that BEVs are the future which really helps the business case for Tesla long term. Tesla is, and will have to go to stay being, the one to beat.

One additional factor to consider is that GM has significant investment in Hydrogen powertrains. If GM makes big H2 announcements concurrently, it would not help Tesla's case.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Another thing to remember regarding the MX reveal is that beta testing could not be completed before the vehicle is manufactured on the production line is tested to verify that production is as designed and no changes are required to the vehicle. The thing is that new body in white line is not even ready until some time in Q1, and it is a major part of the manufacturing process. I personally think that reveal will not happen until after the new body in white and paint shop are up and running.

 

[jhm]

If GM is serious about the Bolt, it suggests that GM is not too worried about cheap gas in 2017. It seems that cheap oil is hurting hybrids, while pure electrics continue to grow in sales. As a hedge to cheap oil, the Bolt may be needed for compliance. In either case, cheap oil is not the time to hold back on electrics.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

On the other hand would Tesla send out invitations just for the P85D, Model S, and our latest show exhibits, if the latter didn't include something especially interesting?

I tend to agree that it would be pointless for Tesla to have an event if they didn't have anything special to show.

 

[NigelM]

On the other hand would Tesla send out invitations just for the P85D, Model S, and our latest show exhibits, if the latter didn't include something especially interesting?

Yes. A "show exhibit" is not a production intent Model X. I could also ask: would Tesla forget to mention Model X?

BTW, can you point me to one single major reveal that Tesla did at any auto-show, ever, anywhere.

 

[Twiddler]

I disagree that the MX reveal will not occur until closer to the time of production start or even deliveries. This does not really make sense from a business perspective, and TSLA surely realizes that it cannot expect many, outside of a few loyalists, to pay such a large amount for a vehicle that has not even been seen, much less driven. Beta model S cars were available at Tesla stores almost a year before production start, and. Widespread test drive events were occurring at 3-6 months in advance (my numbers are approximate). That said, if they are to truly start production, let alone deliveries, in Q3, potential buyers need to be seeing the car yesterday. While I agree that Tesla usually hosts its own events, time is running short. If they were going to release it like that, one would think they would have done so before the auto show season started, to get more mileage out of the shows. I could see a reveal at the NAIAS, followed by a Tesla event where the vehicles could be driven. Regardless, either the beta/production model needs to be shown soon, or they are going to push it back further. I also think that the market knows this, and will react negatively if no MX at the event.

 

[Lessmog]

I disagree that the MX reveal will not occur until closer to the time of production start or even deliveries. This does not really make sense from a business perspective, and TSLA surely realizes that it cannot expect many, outside of a few loyalists, to pay such a large amount for a vehicle that has not even been seen, much less driven.

But they already have, have they not? Unless you define "a few" as much less than 20-30k. (I lose count. Sorry.)

Tesla runs an alternative business trajectory, disruptive and possibly much more profitable than most centenarian companies.

I also think that the market knows this, and will react negatively if no MX at the event.

Here, methinks you may project too much. Although the market (TM) is often in a majority. Of losers (?)

On the other hand, I'm just guessing too. :tongue:

 

[Maknyuzz]

It's very apparent from your post that you are either short or are entering a short position, so let's be fair & civil, and allow me to chime in on your points to further educate you on Tesla and the history behind the members that you've mentioned above.

You dont need to write that long post. The fact that I know the name "luvb2b", "sleepyhead", should imply I know about Tesla well enough. I am lucky enough to be one of those Teslanaires. I don't post that much because, I don't need to do constant posting, I am a Teslanaire, life is good.

I am talking in particular to a 2014 user "jhm" who labelled me FUDster. It is frustrating that even a slight negative post, and you are labelled a FUDster. I read last week, when a user "maoing" was chiming a slightly negative tone about TSLA, and everyone was jumping on him spreading false negative news about TSLA. Keep in mind mao-ing has been very instrumental in giving us update about China market, and he is clearly a TSLA supporter. And boy was he right. TSLA dropped from 225 to 206 in 6 trading days. Short-term but his slight concern prove to be right.

And lastly, you labelled me short/about to enter a short position. Nope, I am in fact trying to find a spot to add to my already heavy-long position. I am lurking the TMC Forum once in a while to find Haiku, to find out if it might be a short term top indication. I also lurk here to find newbie throwing white flag, and giving up when TSLA dropped so much. What I found out yesterday, instead, was FredTMC daydreaming about Model X and Model 3 preview at Detroit Auto Show. I also read some users hoping/wishful thinking about repeat of last year jump due to Jerome's pre-announcement. This kind of wishful thinking is just an indication that the stock might not be done tanking in the short-term.

I am far from the best, but I can typically corellate the tone of this forum with TSLA price action.
- Haiku = toppy,
- Wishful thinking/in-denial = more washout to come
- Giving up/white flag = short term bottom.

That is all my point. I am trying to write to the forum that the washout might not be done, and the stock could perhaps go lower, and what frustrates me the most is being labelled FUDster. There has been so many warning posted about Head and Shoulder formation, about P85D seat and EPA mile issue, nobody gave a damn huh? Turned out all those slightly negative poster who were labelled FUD were proved to be right in the short term. Again, this is a short-term forum, and every once in a while some member will post with negative tone, but calling these FUDster just showed that TMC has jumped shark.

I just read NigelM, the mod, posting about "no model X" in Detoit auto show. If it was me, pretty sure I would be labelled FUDster

And I don't know why I even waste my morning typing this. Mod please rename the forum to "Praise and Worship TSLA 2015".

 

[NigelM]

.....and TSLA surely realizes that it cannot expect many, outside of a few loyalists, to pay such a large amount for a vehicle that has not even been seen, much less driven.

Take a look at the Model X tally thread. The numbers speak for themselves IMO.

Beta model S cars were available at Tesla stores almost a year before production start, and. Widespread test drive events were occurring at 3-6 months in advance (my numbers are approximate)

Actually your numbers/dates are somewhat off. There was an alpha car that was being shipped around the country in July/August 2011. The first rides in beta cars were at an event at Fremont in Oct 2011 and they only started to appear at the stores a couple of months later (with very few stores at that time and no test drives/rides). Production started in June 2012. The "Get Amped" test drive tour started ~1 week after Founders series deliveries in late June 2012.

 

[Lessmog]

@Maknyuzz: I confess to having started the haiku meme. But that was an isolated occurrence. I promise I am actively refraining from attempting a repeat, at this time.

That particular verse turned out to be a dud, due to personal reasons. But I'm still mostly long TSLA. (Until I get to pay for the car )

 

[JRP3]

Yes. A "show exhibit" is not a production intent Model X. I could also ask: would Tesla forget to mention Model X?

Forget? No. Setup for a surprise? Maybe.

BTW, can you point me to one single major reveal that Tesla did at any auto-show, ever, anywhere.

Nope. Not saying it's going to happen, or even likely, just keeping the door open, a crack. Or maybe that's just what I put in my pipe :biggrin:

 

[Lessmog]

Forget? No. Setup for a surprise? Maybe.



Nope. Not saying it's going to happen, or even likely, just keeping the door open, a crack. Or maybe that's just what I put in my pipe :biggrin:

AHA! So finally it's out, what the Doors were using for enhanced ... sorry, lost connection here :frown:

 

[NigelM]

Or maybe that's just what I put in my pipe :biggrin:

That'll maybe help avoid the depression if it doesn't happen. ;-)

 

[Lessmog]

That'll maybe help avoid the depression if it doesn't happen. ;-)

Uhmm. If it doesn't happen, why avoid it? :redface:

 

[Johan]

Once a fellow Teslanaire
started to sound like a bear
"More poems mean drop,
TSLA heavy in top"
Come next week, lets see if he's not in err

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Yes. A "show exhibit" is not a production intent Model X. I could also ask: would Tesla forget to mention Model X?

BTW, can you point me to one single major reveal that Tesla did at any auto-show, ever, anywhere.

I don't expect Tesla to reveal the Beta X and NAIAS. What I would expect is something interesting. What that might be, I have no clue!

 

[Thumper]

If I'm remembering right, Franz once said they hoped to reveal a III pototype at this years Detroit Auto show.

 

[sundaymorning]

I am talking in particular to a 2014 user "jhm" who labelled me FUDster. It is frustrating that even a slight negative post, and you are labelled a FUDster. I read last week, when a user "maoing" was chiming a slightly negative tone about TSLA, and everyone was jumping on him spreading false negative news about TSLA. Keep in mind mao-ing has been very instrumental in giving us update about China market, and he is clearly a TSLA supporter. And boy was he right. TSLA dropped from 225 to 206 in 6 trading days. Short-term but his slight concern prove to be right.
.....

I just read NigelM, the mod, posting about "no model X" in Detoit auto show. If it was me, pretty sure I would be labelled FUDster

And I don't know why I even waste my morning typing this. Mod please rename the forum to "Praise and Worship TSLA 2015".

Maknyuzz, congratulations on you being a Teslanaire. I think you've misunderstood the whole concept of what this forum represents and why one would be called a Fudsfer. The purpose of this forum isn't a church that worships Tesla, it's a place to share news, accumulate data, make predictions and on some occasions, spread FUD. Yes, you are right about the Haikus, and if you're investing on the notions of "Haikus" and "quietness," then I would buy more shares on this dip, as it represents a buying opertunity.

Regarding Maoing, yes he has brought to us a sleuth of valuable data on China, but even a broken clock can be right twice a day based on sentiment and short term price movements. How the stock reacts short term is highly unpredictable, and you might as well flip a coin and place a bet on that probability and be just as successful; which is why going long is the best game to play if you believe in a company. It isn't that members here are quick to label negative tones as FUDs that concerns us, it's when individuals brings negativity without actual data, or a reliable and logical presentation that makes accepting that data a problem. If you are defending Maoing based on his negative sentiment and correlate that to the recent drop to prove your point, then I can find many more occasions were negativity that was spewed here was just FUD. These types of post doesn't contribute much to actual data, instead it's used to spread one's sentiment, which can become annoying when data isn't presented.

Maoing's negative sentiment was based on notion that the stock was going down because of a slight possible miss on deliveries, others chimed in and argued that the slight miss will be negated by positive outlook for 2015 guidance. Both school of thought holds just as much credibility as there are no real data to prove one's point and the results of that argument has yet to be proven as QR hasn't been released. Problems arose when Maoing repetitively sung the same song over and over again but presented no new data, that is when some members called it a FUD because he wasn't contributing real data, he was just being negative based on a gut feeling. Yes the stock has fallen over a dozen points, but I wouldn't give that credit to Maoing's sentiment because there are dozens of other variables that none of us could have calculated, that is why short term investing is highly unpredictable but compelling.

I agree that the tone on this forum may be a bit biased, but for good reason, and I leave the stock price to speak for itself. If you are here to share data, and even if it is negative, then bring it, we will listen. But I would encourage you not to be frustrated and call us names if your data or negativity isn't given credibility, Tesla's story is just too good, and a drop in recent price proves nothing. When Tesla's story changes, then we'll talk. Short term investing is a "guessing game" unless data was used, might as well call this thread "the guessing game" and add another one called "short term data" (I am being humorous).

 

[Curt Renz]

For those of you who are new to this forum, the best trading strategy I've picked up from members, mentors as well as failed traders is to look over Curt Rentz's earlier posts and responses. One of the best advice I've gotten from Curt was if you believe in a company with disruptive potential to an industry, don't lose your position in that company to trade short term. Curt's prophetic advice was that when you compare data from a amature long term investor in a disruptive company like Tesla, against the best of the best short term traders in the industry, you'll practically end up in the same place years down the road such as 2020. The difference between long and short term traders is that NO longs can be left behind if the train takes off in the right direction, but one bad trade short-term may leave you regretting a chase of this train when it leaves the station and goes higher and higher.

Thank you for your kind words, sundaymorning. For those seeking my earlier posts, my name is spelled Curt Renz. Until the nineteenth century German spelling reform, my family name was indeed spelled Rentz. In German the name is pronounced the same with or without the "t" and sounds like the English plural word rents. In America we pronounce it to rhyme with the English plural word pens.

You seem to be most directly referencing my post on 2013 MAR 12 which is #131 in the 2013 version of this short-term TSLA price movements thread: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

That was about six weeks after I bought all of my TSLA shares for less than $38 each which I still hold today. The discussion at that time was centered on the strategy of buying in the low 30s and selling in the high 30s. My concluding paragraph in that post reads, "Perhaps longer term investors need not be too concerned. When a large number of traders feel it’s time to take profits in anticipation of repurchases at lower prices, yet are unable to depress prices much by their selling, those traders may eventually have to chase a stock that is running away on them."