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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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Overall market is up BIG. TSLA in the red. While it is annoying, I'm pretty confident that much of the holdout and lack of action is due to investors wanting a big update from Tesla. Tesla is not releasing information either because there are going to be a slew of events for this two events in detroit (NAIAS and the Detroit auto conference-- the name escapes me) but also the Deutsche Bank Automotive conference occurring next week.

On the plus side we know for certain there is significant progress on the long term initiatives. There was a gigafactory picture of structural foundations being put up for a building.

Yes, we're in that no man's land before solid information is released from Tesla. TSLA generally trades down when the market drops but doesn't trade up much when the market moves up. TSLA moves up on news. TSLA finds buyers when it drops to the 205 range, bounces back, then slowly settles back again. Between the 4Q ER and NAIAS, we're going to get news before long that will propel the stock higher. It's uncomfortable to hold TSLA when it is stagnant, but it is far more uncomfortable to see TSLA shooting up on good news and not holding sufficient shares. I suspect months from now we're going to be talking about this great buying opportunity right before the stock popped upward on its way to a new ATH.
 
With no Tesla news, I found the job numbers that came in today.

Canada lost 4,300 jobs in December but unemployment rate stayed the same at 6.6 percent.
U.S. added 252,000 jobs in December. Unemployment rate dropped to 5.6 %, lowest since June 2008. Should help boost the U.S. economy
 
BMW is getting ready to embark on a radical engineering and technology drive which could see all future models from the 3-series upwards, including the Rolls-Royce range, become all-wheel-drive range-extender electric cars.

So much vaporware, and still not a single long-range, software-driven battery-electric in development. All of these cars have gas tanks, and all of these big automakers have no best-in-class electrical engineers or software engineers. For large-scale BEV's, their batteries have to come from somewhere. Where will they get them? Who will supply them? What format? How much range without gas? How much per kWh will they cost? How will they sell them against gas competitors? And on and on.

Anyway, so far all this "Tesla competition" noise is just that -- noise from a desperate industry trying to deflect enthusiasm from the Model III, Model S and Model X. They do not have credible alternatives. Most of them are not even building teams to design them.

I'll believe it when I see it. BEV or nothing is the only way, but none of them has a GigaFactory. Oh well, more market share for us in the near-term.

I still have more friends every week, especially young ones, telling me they are saving every bit of money they can to buy a Model 3. The car, the company, its customers and sales volumes will shock the planet.

In the meantime, The Model X is going to sweep awards for SUV of the year and perhaps car of the year.

Buckle in, it's going to be an interesting 2015.
 
Shhh! I'm buying calls. :)

At least one optimist here. Just can't believe how weak TSLA has been, just a disaster stock right now. I'm considering all my Jan '15 calls a loss, no hope what so ever, even for the ones that just two weeks ago looked like they might still go back to green. :mad:

If there would be any good news from Tesla on the horizon, the stock would move up in anticipation, right? It always does, based on rumors, leaks, etc. To me the quietness on this thread is a bad, bad sign.
 
To me the quietness on this thread is a bad, bad sign.

As a contrarian indicator, I am buying calls this morning BECAUSE of the quietness on the forums here. When exuberance and enthusiasm are whipped into a frenzy, that's often a good sign to sell.

I believe oil has finally near bottomed, I believe the US economy is doing better than expected, and I believe Tesla crushed it with deliveries in Q4. I believe the weak news is destined for a turnaround, and NAIAS is this weekend.

That is just my trading thesis -- as always folks please do your own research, don't follow me, etc etc.
 
I also believe the lull is just an opportunity for buyers and for naysayers to get out. The roll out of autopilot features by over the air upgrade is a telling sign for the auto industry and while initially TM appeared to over promise, just a short OTA upgrade shows that TM is more about over deliver.

If they can change the power usage of the dual motors by OTA update, they can really tailor the range with whatever profile their research bears out. Now that the cars are on the road, TM can analyze the data, and likely see, that D cars go through phases of insane acceleration, but likely on a daily basis, to school, grocery store, work, the car is not being floored. This is of course speculation, but with the right data, one could easily come up with majority of drivers and see what their regular usage needs are.

What is to prevent TM from introducing a hyper eco mode, to extend range? The timing of the releases is not to be lost in coordination with NAIS.

Will there be a model X? unlikely, but the D is a test bed that is on sale now, which bodes well for a smooth release of the X.
 
Even though Teslas compete with the more profitable product offerings of the major auto companies, currently and in the future, let's keep in mind that even at 20x current sales (2020 or later) Tesla will command less than 1% of the world auto market in units, maybe 3% in value.
 
Another good sign is when TMC geeks are busy analyzing the latest photos of the Gigafactory or latest Supercharger maps revealing Tesla's planned growth for the next two years. This kind of attention to the underlying growth story is what gives us the edge.

Within two years, Tesla owners will be able to Supercharge all the way from Portugal to Moscow, Russia!
 
Another good sign is when TMC geeks are busy analyzing the latest photos of the Gigafactory or latest Supercharger maps revealing Tesla's planned growth for the next two years. This kind of attention to the underlying growth story is what gives us the edge.

Within two years, Tesla owners will be able to Supercharge all the way from Portugal to Moscow, Russia!

But there is still a bit of a gaping hole in the Bremen-Hamburg-Lübeck area for all those Scandinavian Teslaites to storm down and overwhelm the entire continental Europe. Only a small Supercharger at the Hamburg mech, open during business hours. Tut, tut.

Although that is not strictly short-term I guess. One can hope!
 
Agreed completely.. the times where its quiet are usually a much better time to buy then when there's a lot of news and buzz (hence discussion here).

FYI for all, the street is estimating Feb 19 as the 2014 Q4 earnings date.

Another point is we're probably entering a quiet period for TSLA. Which may be one reason why we might not be hearing much news OR investor related information will be released through proper avenues (Conferences and what not)
 
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