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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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#221
NigelM said:
Take a look at the Model X tally thread. The numbers speak for themselves IMO.



Actually your numbers/dates are somewhat off. There was an alpha car that was being shipped around the country in July/August 2011. The first rides in beta cars were at an event at Fremont in Oct 2011 and they only started to appear at the stores a couple of months later (with very few stores at that time and no test drives/rides). Production started in June 2012. The "Get Amped" test drive tour started ~1 week after Founders series deliveries in late June 2012.
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Thx Nigel for the timeline recap! This history shows that there were rides in beta cars 9 months before production started. Well, we are 9 months from production of Model X. However, I do believe that TM will go from alpha to beta to production vehicles far faster than model s - they've said so... Ramp time is compressed now

I also agree that Tesla has always done reveals (car introductions) at their own events. Tesla had the splashy Model X reveal event on Feb 9th 2012 at Hawthorne (nearly two years ago). I find it hard to fathom that we learn nothing new regarding Tesla's new models next week.

For next week I'm expecting the following:

Model X:

Tesla shows us what the production car looks like. Probably a car on the floor and a description and interviews on its refined features (seats, doors etc). Tesla will say that production is on schedule and test drive events are coming "soon" (in the next few months).

Model 3:

Remember that a long time ago Franz said that they may reveal Model 3 at Detroit. I forget when exactly he said this but I think it was at least 6 months ago. Tesla subsequently retracted that statement through the communications dept. Furthermore, last week Elon said on the reddit Q&A that "Model 3 is like nothing on the road". This indicates they have a specific concept nailed down. It would break precedence for tesla to Reveal the concept but maybe they will given the above evidence. I put probably at less than 30%
 
#222
Curt Renz said:
Thank you for your kind words, sundaymorning. For those seeking my earlier posts, my name is spelled Curt Renz. Until the nineteenth century German spelling reform, my family name was indeed spelled Rentz. In German the name is pronounced the same with or without the "t" and sounds like the English plural word rents. In America we pronounce it to rhyme with the English plural word pens.

You seem to be most directly referencing my post on 2013 MAR 12 which is #131 in the 2013 version of this short-term TSLA price movements thread: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

That was about six weeks after I bought all of my TSLA shares for less than $38 each which I still hold today. The discussion at that time was centered on the strategy of buying in the low 30s and selling in the high 30s. My concluding paragraph in that post reads, "Perhaps longer term investors need not be too concerned. When a large number of traders feel it’s time to take profits in anticipation of repurchases at lower prices, yet are unable to depress prices much by their selling, those traders may eventually have to chase a stock that is running away on them."
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Clever, smart, prescient, wise - I don't much care how you spell it.
Trying in vain to emulate but ending up being a stork late.
(At least this is neither a haiku nor a limerick!)*

* And if it is, I'll be murdering the Time! Out of spite.
As well as rhyme. Ruff sh...-tuff.
 
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#223
Maknyuzz,

I took exception to the way you mocked a TMC fellow, FredTMC. Using psycho babble, you dissed him by saying that he was "in-denial," and went on to insinuate that anyone holding on at this point is in denial about further declines in stock price. Even in your defense below, you are perpetuating this kind of mockery. It is perfectly fine to disagree with any of us regarding Tesla. If you simply think that the things FredTMC hopes to see from Tesla will not happen soon. Fine, say that. Many people here can accept that and quite possibily aggree with you on that point. But to use psycho babble to not so subtly put down another contributor is not welcome. Plenty of us will call you out on that.

You have labelled yourself a FUDster. I said no such thing. My rebuke was aimed at your disrespectful post. I wrote, "You sound like you are an operative for shorts. Knock it off with the psycho FUD." I am in no position to verify who you really are, and so I am not labelling you a FUDster. But I will tell you that your posts sound like FUD whether you intend so or not. If this is not your intention, then take this as friendly feedback so that future posts can match your honest intentions. It would also be helpful if you would apologize for dissing FredTMC. He's a classy enough guy that he just let it roll off his back, so if it was not your intent to insult him and other longs like him, I expect all all will be forgiven.

Respectfully,
James

Maknyuzz said:
You dont need to write that long post. The fact that I know the name "luvb2b", "sleepyhead", should imply I know about Tesla well enough. I am lucky enough to be one of those Teslanaires. I don't post that much because, I don't need to do constant posting, I am a Teslanaire, life is good.

I am talking in particular to a 2014 user "jhm" who labelled me FUDster. It is frustrating that even a slight negative post, and you are labelled a FUDster. I read last week, when a user "maoing" was chiming a slightly negative tone about TSLA, and everyone was jumping on him spreading false negative news about TSLA. Keep in mind mao-ing has been very instrumental in giving us update about China market, and he is clearly a TSLA supporter. And boy was he right. TSLA dropped from 225 to 206 in 6 trading days. Short-term but his slight concern prove to be right.

And lastly, you labelled me short/about to enter a short position. Nope, I am in fact trying to find a spot to add to my already heavy-long position. I am lurking the TMC Forum once in a while to find Haiku, to find out if it might be a short term top indication. I also lurk here to find newbie throwing white flag, and giving up when TSLA dropped so much. What I found out yesterday, instead, was FredTMC daydreaming about Model X and Model 3 preview at Detroit Auto Show. I also read some users hoping/wishful thinking about repeat of last year jump due to Jerome's pre-announcement. This kind of wishful thinking is just an indication that the stock might not be done tanking in the short-term.

I am far from the best, but I can typically corellate the tone of this forum with TSLA price action.
- Haiku = toppy,
- Wishful thinking/in-denial = more washout to come
- Giving up/white flag = short term bottom.

That is all my point. I am trying to write to the forum that the washout might not be done, and the stock could perhaps go lower, and what frustrates me the most is being labelled FUDster. There has been so many warning posted about Head and Shoulder formation, about P85D seat and EPA mile issue, nobody gave a damn huh? Turned out all those slightly negative poster who were labelled FUD were proved to be right in the short term. Again, this is a short-term forum, and every once in a while some member will post with negative tone, but calling these FUDster just showed that TMC has jumped shark.

I just read NigelM, the mod, posting about "no model X" in Detoit auto show. If it was me, pretty sure I would be labelled FUDster :)

And I don't know why I even waste my morning typing this. Mod please rename the forum to "Praise and Worship TSLA 2015".
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#224
NigelM said:
Model X is in beta testing, I don't beieve RC (release candidate or production intent) cars exist yet and it's not Tesla's style to reveal at NAIAS. The X will maybe not even be there but if it is it won't be the final version, that will come at a reveal to reservation holders sometime in the next several months.

Don't expect to see Model 3 at NAIAS, Tesla has way to much going on in many different areas to have gotten very far forward on Model3; again also remember that Tesla has a history of not doing reveals at auto shows, they prefer to do their own reveals in California.

Finally, Model 3 will most likely hit the streets in 2018 so it would be crazy to let everyone see it 3 years in advance.
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I'm more optimistic than NigelM on the production start date of Model 3. Elon and others have tied the beginning of output from the gigafactory to the release of Model 3. One can't do well without the other, and the gigafactory, if anything, is ahead of schedule. Tesla really owes Panasonic and other partners a Model 3 ready for production when the gigafactory is really to spool up. One could argue that delays in Model S and Model X release will lead to a delay in Model 3 release. I see a reason to believe otherwise, since Model S and Model X both introduced a substantial amount of new technology, whereas Model 3 does not need to depend upon pushing the limits on new technology. Rather, it is likely going to be a less expensive version of the technology that currently exists. My prediction? Model 3 will be ready to roll when the gigafactory is ready to start turning out batteries in volume. Look for a portion of the gigafactory to be up and running before the whole thing, too.

As for news reports that call the Chevy Bolt a Model S killer, they are as ridiculous as calling the Chevy Sonic a Jaguar and Maserati killer. Moreover, the Chevy Sonic is not a viable competitor to the BMW 300 series, nor will it be to the equally upscale Tesla Model 3. Chevy may do well with the Bolt, but you will see that the Model 3 and the Bolt are in two different classes of automotive refinement. Rumors of a Bolt in 2017 will be incentive for Tesla to stay on track with their Model 3 development.

From a short term trading perspective, one could imagine that the Chevy Bolt announcement places pressure on Tesla to release information at NAIAS that they might have otherwise withheld for a later date.

Edit: The news article that claimed the Chevy Bolt might be a Model S killer has been edited Saturday evening to read "Model 3" killer. Nonetheless, an electric subcompact Chevy Sonic is not going to be a BMW 300 series killer, Audi A4 killer, or a Tesla Model 3 killer.
 
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#226
Johan said:
But there is, as always, two sides to that: the more the big manufacturers begin building real BEVs the more it solidifies that BEVs are the future which really helps the business case for Tesla long term. Tesla is, and will have to go to stay being, the one to beat.
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Yes, I agree with Johan. This has played out in the computer market many times, where the smaller player's business is validated by the bigger player trying to catch up.

The WSJ article was interesting in another way: it says the Bolt will be the first all-electric vehicle from GM since the EV1. They don't know (or weren't told) about the Spark EV?
 
#227
Well, this is an interesting start to 2015. Between the stagnant stock price, lack of any solid information (other than a leaked engineering drawing which shows practically nothing) on Model X, and wild rumors about competitors, tempers are starting to fray.

A lot of this stuff is completely out of our hands, at least where Tesla's progress is concerned, unless some of us here are Tesla employees. Fighting is therefore pointless. Whatever happens happens, and the only guarantee IMO is that it'll be very interesting.

What you can control is your investment strategy. I realize that many people here will have a lot $ at stake, and when there's a lot of $$$ at stake, things can get pretty hot. So I will say this again:

(1) Don't bet the farm on Tesla, or any other single company. A core design philosophy of Tesla and SpaceX is to acknowledge that failures can and will happen, and that systems should be designed to handle failure. Investment portfolios should be designed the same way. Ask yourselves what would happen if TSLA were to crash entirely -- and plan for that contingency.

(2) Short term and long term markets behave like physics: On the big time scale, everything looks perfectly predictable and according to Einstein's model. As you shrink down and down into tiny segments of time, stuff becomes increasingly random and/or governed by probabilities and never certainties. The short-term game is basically over IMO for the small retail investors like me, who don't have access to trading tools, algorithms, and the the farms of servers that power those algorithms. Place your bets and wait a few years.

I have faith in Tesla, but my financial future is not dependent on the company. The stock price doesn't keep me up at night.


ggr said:
Yes, I agree with Johan. This has played out in the computer market many times, where the smaller player's business is validated by the bigger player trying to catch up.
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Didn't this happen to Apple? They got absolutely swamped for 20 years, and it wasn't until the return of Steve Jobs and some major innovations in music, retail, and mobile devices that Apple recovered to become a dominant player in consumer electronics.
 
#228
Papafox said:
I'm more optimistic than NigelM on the production start date of Model 3. Elon and others have tied the beginning of output from the gigafactory to the release of Model 3. One can't do well without the other, and the gigafactory, if anything, is ahead of schedule. Tesla really owes Panasonic and other partners a Model 3 ready for production when the gigafactory is really to spool up. One could argue that delays in Model S and Model X release will lead to a delay in Model 3 release. I see a reason to believe otherwise, since Model S and Model X both introduced a substantial amount of new technology, whereas Model 3 does not need to depend upon pushing the limits on new technology. Rather, it is likely going to be a less expensive version of the technology that currently exists. My prediction? Model 3 will be ready to roll when the gigafactory is ready to start turning out batteries in volume. Look for a portion of the gigafactory to be up and running before the whole thing, too.
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Dont forget though that Model S demand remains buoyant and Model X demand (# of reservations) is unprecedented; those will both suck up battery production/availability. While I don't doubt Tesla's ability to deliver Model 3 they do have a history of optimistic but unfulfilled target dates and the ramp up to real mass numbers will be something Tesla has never attempted before.

I'll delighted to be wrong on this one but I'm confident enough to wager with you Model 3 won't get to consumers before 2018.
 
#229
NigelM said:
I'll delighted to be wrong on this one but I'm confident enough to wager with you Model 3 won't get to consumers before 2018.
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Nigel, here's the conditions of the bet I would like to make. The loser has to write at least four lines of verse on the 2016 or 2017 version of this thread (whichever is current), praising the predictive powers of the bet's winner ; )
 
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#230
FredTMC said:
For next week I'm expecting the following:

Model X:

Tesla shows us what the production car looks like. Probably a car on the floor and a description and interviews on its refined features (seats, doors etc). Tesla will say that production is on schedule and test drive events are coming "soon" (in the next few months).

Model 3:

Remember that a long time ago Franz said that they may reveal Model 3 at Detroit. I forget when exactly he said this but I think it was at least 6 months ago. Tesla subsequently retracted that statement through the communications dept. Furthermore, last week Elon said on the reddit Q&A that "Model 3 is like nothing on the road". This indicates they have a specific concept nailed down. It would break precedence for tesla to Reveal the concept but maybe they will given the above evidence. I put probably at less than 30%
Click to expand...

This would be nice. For me it would be good also if Tesla showed us only the Model X.
 
#232
This is new:

"Offered with 60 kWh, 85 kWh, and 85 kWh Performance options, every Model X comes standard with Dual Motor All Wheel Drive and brilliantly functional Falcon Wing Doors. These doors fold up and out of the way allowing easy access to the third row seat, even from the narrowest of parking spaces."

Also, a new picture of the Model X.
 
#233
Most details are stripped out of the updated Model X page - Model X | Tesla Motors

I was ready to rule out Model X unveiling at NAIAS, but it is possible now. It looks like the Tesla website will be updated soon with the current Model X specs.

I checked the dates for Model S from shareholder letters:
Beta unveil - Oct 1, 2011
First delivery - Jun 22, 2012

If we are to see first Model X deliveries by September, then by the same timeline the Beta should be sooner than later.
 
#240
tlo said:
Most details are stripped out of the updated Model X page - Model X | Tesla Motors

I was ready to rule out Model X unveiling at NAIAS, but it is possible now. It looks like the Tesla website will be updated soon with the current Model X specs.

I checked the dates for Model S from shareholder letters:
Beta unveil - Oct 1, 2011
First delivery - Jun 22, 2012

If we are to see first Model X deliveries by September, then by the same timeline the Beta should be sooner than later.
Click to expand...

yep. Agreed. The fact the site is redesigned but the Model X portion is basically devoid of any info is a good indication. They don't want to post outdated specs/details on a brand new website. Furthermore, I doubt they'd want to leave the Model X pages blank for long so this coincides with NAIAS very well.
 
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