Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[jhm]

are you referring to elon's comments at the GPU conference? because if you look at the context of those comments, he is talking about updates to the car's autonomous driving capabilities, which is clearly not the entire fleet. i love the notion that there is a ton the car's existing hardware can't do already, but i have a hard time believing he was referring to my 2+ year old model s.

i'm hoping your source re: hardware waiting for activation is somewhere else and i am wrong, just want to clarify...

surfside

I was reacting to GPU comments, but I think it expressed a broader deployment strategy than just autopilot hardware. So we simply do not know what latent hardware is sitting in a 2012 Model S because we do not know how forward-looking that hardware selections were at that time. Yes, we can rule out most of the autopilot sensors, but that does not rule out other potential surprises.

Regardless, the strategy is quite novel within the autoindustry. Since Tesla is underwriting a resale value guarantee, it has a vested interest in antipating the hardware needs of vehicles 3 years out as they roll off leases. The obsolescence risk they carry on the RVG reserve can be used to justify financially installing hardware now that may get activated within the next 3 years. I think Musk has greater foresight than that, 5 to 10 years perhaps, but at least the bean counters can make a solid 3-year case. Musk knows that more hardware will be needed for fully autonomous vehicles, so the interesting question becomes, at what point in time does Tesla begin to secretly add this additional hardware? If it is more than ten years away, probably not now. If it is six years away, maybe, perhaps the sockets for easy upgrade. If it is three years away, most surely.

 

[pGo]

Hardwares evolve quickly and 3 year old hardware is obsolete today in most cases. I am betting that Elon is talking about recent auto-pilot hardware only and no other hidden surprises are in store. If Tegra-3 can barely handle current sw load, it won't be good to unlock additional functionality.

I also think that Model X reveal will bring Model S to the latest in terms of computer processing, internet, wifi, sensors, screens. Most of all need an upgrade.

 

[techmaven]

Hardwares evolve quickly and 3 year old hardware is obsolete today in most cases. I am betting that Elon is talking about recent auto-pilot hardware only and no other hidden surprises are in store. If Tegra-3 can barely handle current sw load, it won't be good to unlock additional functionality.

The Model S main head unit has a Tegra 3 quad core running at 1.4 GHz. That's a lot of computing power given that it isn't really power or heat constrained the way smartphones have to deal with power and heat. However, I find the responsiveness to be middling to poor and Tesla has a long way to go in optimizations. Hopefully they've hired some Apple folks to help them with that. However, for routing/navigation and trip planning purposes, it should have plenty of power. Most likely the sluggishness has less to do with raw computing power available than optimizations and graphics performance. The actual functions of the infotainment system should be well within the capabilities of a SoC.

On the other hand, if Tesla does find a new feature set to use up the available processor power, like the neural network stuff in the GPU conference, hopefully they can just change out the module for a nominal upgrade fee.

 

[jhm]

Hardwares evolve quickly and 3 year old hardware is obsolete today in most cases. I am betting that Elon is talking about recent auto-pilot hardware only and no other hidden surprises are in store. If Tegra-3 can barely handle current sw load, it won't be good to unlock additional functionality.

I also think that Model X reveal will bring Model S to the latest in terms of computer processing, internet, wifi, sensors, screens. Most of all need an upgrade.

Maybe the more important issue is to get the architecture right so it is easily upgraded when the time is right. The autopilot hardware has architectural requirements that make upgrading older vehicles too expesive. Had the sockets been in place a few years ago, then the specific sensors could have been sold as an upgrade package. For example, lidar may be too expensive to install right now, but the price could come down and performance up over the next 3 to 6 years. If this happens, it could be very nice to have sockets in cars being built today.

Anything that can be upgraded can become an upgrade package in the future, which gives Tesla future revenue streams and encourages customer confidence.

 

[austinEV]

I was reacting to GPU comments, but I think it expressed a broader deployment strategy than just autopilot hardware. So we simply do not know what latent hardware is sitting in a 2012 Model S because we do not know how forward-looking that hardware selections were at that time. Yes, we can rule out most of the autopilot sensors, but that does not rule out other potential surprises.

Regardless, the strategy is quite novel within the autoindustry. Since Tesla is underwriting a resale value guarantee, it has a vested interest in antipating the hardware needs of vehicles 3 years out as they roll off leases. The obsolescence risk they carry on the RVG reserve can be used to justify financially installing hardware now that may get activated within the next 3 years. I think Musk has greater foresight than that, 5 to 10 years perhaps, but at least the bean counters can make a solid 3-year case. Musk knows that more hardware will be needed for fully autonomous vehicles, so the interesting question becomes, at what point in time does Tesla begin to secretly add this additional hardware? If it is more than ten years away, probably not now. If it is six years away, maybe, perhaps the sockets for easy upgrade. If it is three years away, most surely.

I really hope they designed the computers as modules that could be swapped out and upgraded. As in, they announce a much more powerful 2015 model of center stack computer for smoother navigation and browsing and you can have it installed for $1000. I may not but it would be reassuring to know that the car will not be obsoleted in the way that a 5 year old cell phone feels obsolete.

Edit: Geez, techmaven beat me to it.

 

[yesla]

Shorter upgrade cycle. Maybe this is the ultimate demands weapon.

 

[jhm]

Shorter upgrade cycle. Maybe this is the ultimate demands weapon.

Yes, and advantage goes to Tesla's CPO program over dealers trying to sell used Teslas.

 

[surfside]

I was reacting to GPU comments, but I think it expressed a broader deployment strategy than just autopilot hardware. So we simply do not know what latent hardware is sitting in a 2012 Model S because we do not know how forward-looking that hardware selections were at that time. Yes, we can rule out most of the autopilot sensors, but that does not rule out other potential surprises.

Regardless, the strategy is quite novel within the autoindustry. Since Tesla is underwriting a resale value guarantee, it has a vested interest in antipating the hardware needs of vehicles 3 years out as they roll off leases. The obsolescence risk they carry on the RVG reserve can be used to justify financially installing hardware now that may get activated within the next 3 years. I think Musk has greater foresight than that, 5 to 10 years perhaps, but at least the bean counters can make a solid 3-year case. Musk knows that more hardware will be needed for fully autonomous vehicles, so the interesting question becomes, at what point in time does Tesla begin to secretly add this additional hardware? If it is more than ten years away, probably not now. If it is six years away, maybe, perhaps the sockets for easy upgrade. If it is three years away, most surely.

while i certainly agree that having forward-looking hardware selections are novel within the auto industry and tesla is clearly doing that today with their auto-pilot hardware, i still think the notion that there is any other hardware waiting to be unlocked today is hopeful thinking and very unlikely -- especially when you take into account that when tesla was starting to build the model s in late 2012 / even early 2013, it was (to quote elon) "just trying to be less dumb" about making cars.

surfside

 

[jhm]

Well, given the nightmare I'm having in Alaska right now - with our whole electrical system - I need to tell Messrs Musk&Musk that our little community is perfect for in-the-wild testing of their new reveal.

And I mean In The Wild in its most literal sense......

AudubonB, how about giving SolarCity a call? They want to reach remote communities. See Sustainable Energy Management Solution - GridLogic | SolarCity
I would be very interested in what they could do for your town.

 

[FluxCap]

T minus 10 minutes to Fed Notes release.

NO MORE BETS!

- - - Updated - - -

You are all welcome from Janet Yellen. She just gave your TSLA calls a giant boost going into tomorrow's event.

This is the market at 2pm: Rates never ever going up ever, QE infinity, party's on for all stocks, buy everything!

 

[doggusfluffy]

Christie signs law allowing Tesla sales in New Jersey

 

[flankspeed8]

Christie signs law allowing Tesla sales in New Jersey

Excellent!! I am guessing this will put them on a more equal footing now with other manufactures. NJ is a big market but not that large geographically so 4 stores should serve them well.

 

[Johan]

Christie signs law allowing Tesla sales in New Jersey

He just had to wait a few months after having picked up his 2014 check from NADA (the dealers' association)...

 

[sundaymorning]

T minus 10 minutes to Fed Notes release.

NO MORE BETS!
View attachment 75212

- - - Updated - - -

You are all welcome from Janet Yellen. She just gave your TSLA calls a giant boost going into tomorrow's event.

This is the market at 2pm: Rates never ever going up ever, QE infinity, party's on for all stocks, buy everything!

I'm loving it, could this be the momentum needed to turn trajectory? It goes to show you can't time the market.. absolutely unpredictable. If tomorrow's call turns positive, I'll be glad to flip my puts for a lose.

 

[FluxCap]

I'm loving it, could this be the momentum needed to turn trajectory? It goes to show you can't time the market.. absolutely unpredictable. If tomorrow's call turns positive, I'll be glad to flip my puts for a lose.

Could be. New Jersey Christie un-ban news has not hit the wires yet, and Elon's presser still to come, people are looking at oversold market, and buyers like stocks again after Yellen's dovish remarks.

I actually did time this move though, guess correctly, and profited from it -- it's possible but hard.

- - - Updated - - -

This fight for $200 at the bell is epic. Vintage TSLA trade. Shorts are spending a fortune right now. I love this action.

I think I am long calls overnight. My signs are good.

 

[sundaymorning]

Could be. New Jersey Christie un-ban news has not hit the wires yet, and Elon's presser still to come, people are looking at oversold market, and buyers like stocks again after Yellen's dovish remarks.

I actually did time this move though, guess correctly, and profited from it -- it's possible but hard.

Even oil is bouncing up nicely. Although I am not expecting more than OTA upgrades, I sure hope Elon, with his usual excited self makes a remark for us to speculate on. This is just too fun.

 

[FluxCap]

A trader I pay attention to who is usually pretty bearish just tweeted this:

 

[hockeythug]

Obviously sell before 9am pacific tomorrow if people are still thinking its some sort of new hardware/battery swap announcement.

 

[uselesslogin]

Obviously sell before 9am pacific tomorrow if people are still thinking its some sort of new hardware/battery swap announcement.

If it is at $225 at 9am I agree 100%. But if it is hanging out at $200 I'm not so sure.

 

[FANGO]

A trader I pay attention to who is usually pretty bearish just tweeted this:

View attachment 75218

"Could be just battery swap"...yeah, an OTA software update to allow people access to the one station in the country that does something which is already accomplished by superchargers? *That's* going to change things for "the whole fleet"?

Ugh, where do these people get their ideas. Oh wait, probably from here. Let's dial back the crazy pie in the sky "predictions", people. It's almost definitely a nav update. Anything more would be gravy.