Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[doggusfluffy]

It seems underwhelming compared to the grandiose ending range anxiety backdrop. I expected them to show they are addressing all aspects of range issues and demonstrate how one by one your anxiety is constantly melting away with their solution. The inverter optimization, hypermiling software tweaks give even your old car increased range. Battery improvements will provide even more range while everyday more charging possibilities come online. The real world and real time mapping already get you from A to B automatically and very soon will steer you to the closest charging station should you require a special stop. Maybe a business franchise will take them up on the free HPWC to give people another mental safety blanket when considering an EV. Like hey, worst case I stop at Dennys, Tim Hortons or McDonalds and snack type of familiarity. Just my $.02.

 

[jhm]

When I drive San Diego to SF, in a gas car, much of my trip I'm mentally deciding when to optimize my fuel stops.

So, yes, Tesla has leaped ahead of ICE in preventing range anxiety. And ICE would benefit from this type of experience.

Range anxiety is not knowing where you're going to pee in the next 45 miles.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

You don't cure anxiety by giving a person more "degrees of freedom." You cure anxiety by conditioning people to act a certain way with cues, and reinforcement. Increasing the range of vehicles will help alleviate anxiety, but it won't cure it. In my opinion, the best way to cure a conditioned response (range anxiety), is to use reminders and data about your journey to guaranteed the driver that range will not be a problem.

Also, gas stations aren't as plentiful outside the United States.

People in China already fill up their tanks at gas stations. Right? Why would Supercharghers that give you 100-200 miles of range in 10 minutes be any different? Saying people in China live in high rise apartments and therefore don't have anywhere to plug in a Tesla doesnt make sense, since people have no problem parking for 10-15 minutes at a gas station. What's different about plugging in an EV for 15 minutes and plugging in a gasoline vehicle for 5 minutes? Nothing. Besides that the Superchargers are free, whereas gas is not, no matter how low it may go. (I am almost positive gas prices won't go lower, even if the price of oil continues to fall)

 

[Drax7]

Malcontents are always anxious.

Computer on wheels that keeps improving is a message that should
distance tesla further from the competition.

 

[Buddyroe]

You don't cure anxiety by giving a person more "degrees of freedom." You cure anxiety by conditioning people to act a certain way with cues, and reinforcement. Increasing the range of vehicles will help alleviate anxiety, but it won't cure it. In my opinion, the best way to cure a conditioned response (range anxiety), is to use reminders and data about your journey to guaranteed the driver that range will not be a problem.

Also, gas stations aren't as plentiful outside the United States.

People in China already fill up their tanks at gas stations. Right? Why would Supercharghers that give you 100-200
miles of range in 10 minutes be any different? Saying people live in high rise apartments and therefore don't have anywhere to plug in doesnt make sense, since people have no problem parking for 10-15 minutes at a gas station.

Where can you get 200 miles of range in 10-15 minutes? I thought the ABSOLUTE best one could hope for was 130 miles in 20 minutes. Has that been improved?

And where in the heck do you get gas that takes 15 minutes? I'm usually out in 5 minutes or less. Especially if I'm in a hurry. Even Tesla's demonstration of the battery swap didn't have the simulated ICE fill-up taking 15 minutes.

 

[EnergyMax]

Where can you get 200 miles of range in 10-15 minutes? I thought the ABSOLUTE best one could hope for was 130 miles in 20 minutes. Has that been improved?

And where in the heck do you get gas that takes 15 minutes? I'm usually out in 5 minutes or less. Especially if I'm in a hurry. Even Tesla's demonstration of the battery swap didn't have the simulated ICE fill-up taking 15 minutes.

Time to refuel is a different issue from range anxiety. Tesla time to refuel is already very good.

Tesla just cured range anxiety, which is a different issue from time to refuel.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Where can you get 200 miles of range in 10-15 minutes? I thought the ABSOLUTE best one could hope for was 130 miles in 20 minutes. Has that been improved?

And where in the heck do you get gas that takes 15 minutes? I'm usually out in 5 minutes or less. Especially if I'm in a hurry. Even Tesla's demonstration of the battery swap didn't have the simulated ICE fill-up taking 15 minutes.

The Model S received 80% charge in 30 minutes. .80(265) = 212. I don't know the exact amount for 10 minutes but 100-150 sounds right.

Also, Tesla has said it will be able to reduce the amount of time needed for a full charge significantly.

Tesla Says Sub 10-Minute Supercharging is Possible | Inside EVs

Regarding the amount of time spent at gas stations, here you go.

How much time do you spend at the gas station? [Archive] - CleanMPG Forums

 

[Buddyroe]

The Model S received 80% charge in 30 minutes. .80(265) = 212. I don't know the exact amount for 10 minutes but 100-150 sounds right.

Can you provide a link for that? Even Tesla's own webpage states 40 minutes for a 80% charge. So, in 10 minutes, you would theoretically get 1/4 of that - 53 miles.

EDIT: Let me also add that Tesla only distinguishes a difference in charge rate AFTER you reach 80% (also on the same page below). So, even using your 30 minutes for an 80% charge (which I have seen no evidence that it is possible), at 10 minute charge would only be approx 70 miles (10/30 = x/212, x= 70.7). So, even at 30 minutes for an 80% charge, that's still only 70 miles, a far cry from 100-150, and definitely nowhere near 200.

"Charging from 10% to 80% is quick and typically provides ample range to travel between most Superchargers. Charging from 80% to 100% doubles the charge time because the car must reduce current to top off cells. Actual charge times may vary."

Tesla SuperCharger Page

 

[Bobbyducati]

Can you provide a link for that? Even Tesla's own webpage states 40 minutes for a 80% charge. So, in 10 minutes, you would theoretically get 1/4 of that - 53 miles.

Tesla SuperCharger Page

charging scale isnt linear, so no it wouldnt be 1/4th. not sure the exact number but its more.

 

[mejojo]

Can you provide a link for that? Even Tesla's own webpage states 40 minutes for a 80% charge. So, in 10 minutes, you would theoretically get 1/4 of that - 53 miles.

Tesla SuperCharger Page

Being as it's not linear, you can't interpolate that way. The max rate I have gotten is about 380mi/h (I guess that's 120kW? I'll know more next time) from almost empty, so let's say over the first 15 minutes it averaged about 360mi/h. That would mean I added 90 miles in 15 minutes. It took a bit over 30 minutes to add 170 miles. To get 90% took 50+ minutes.

This is an artist's rendering of what linear might look like.

 

[Buddyroe]

Being as it's not linear, you can't interpolate that way. The max rate I have gotten is about 380mi/h (I guess that's a bit north of 120kW? I'll know more next time) from almost empty, so let's say over the first 15 minutes it averaged about 360mi/h. That would mean I added 90 miles in 15 minutes. It took a bit over 30 minutes to add 170 miles. To get 90% took 50+ minutes.

Those numbers look a lot more realistic than, "Supercharghers that give you 100-200 miles of range in 10 minutes." If the BEST you ever got was 90 miles in 15 minutes, I don't see how anyone could ever get 100-200 miles in 10 minutes - not even 100, much less 200.

I don't own a Tesla and I know Tesla doesn't always keep their web page 100% up to date. So, I just wanted to make sure that the charge times I have been quoting to people were accurate. I can tell you for sure that I have MANY wealthy friends that would have bought a Model S a LONG time ago if you could get anything near 200 miles of range in 10 minutes of charging.

 

[Buddyroe]

That is the market for battery swap stations.......

Not if Tesla wants to be a major car manufacturer. I preach Tesla constantly to my friends/acquaintances (without being obnoxious). Almost exclusively, their reason for not considering a Tesla is range/charge time (one guy said he also liked the roar of his car engine). And often when I say, "you can charge it to 80% in about 40 minutes" - most say, "what? I thought they had some super high speed chargers, that's even worse than I thought. I'm not stopping for 40 minutes every 2 to 2.5 hours." None of them ever say they worry that much about running out of power (after I explain the SC network), but all say there is no way they will spend 25% or more of their travel time sitting at charging stations. The people I discuss this with are not limited to a geographical area or a political leaning, etc. I speak with a very diverse group of people about Tesla (hey, we're all salesman aren't we?) so I'm hard-pressed to believe my sample group is not pretty accurate.

 

[EnergyMax]

Not if Tesla wants to be a major car manufacturer. I preach Tesla constantly to my friends/acquaintances (without being obnoxious). Almost exclusively, their reason for not considering a Tesla is range/charge time (one guy said he also liked the roar of his car engine). And often when I say, "you can charge it to 80% in about 40 minutes" - most say, "what? I thought they had some super high speed chargers, that's even worse than I thought. I'm not stopping for 40 minutes every 2 to 2.5 hours." None of them ever say they worry that much about running out of power (after I explain the SC network), but all say there is no way they will spend 25% or more of their travel time sitting at charging stations. The people I discuss this with are not limited to a geographical area or a political leaning, etc. I speak with a very diverse group of people about Tesla (hey, we're all salesman aren't we?) so I'm hard-pressed to believe my sample group is not pretty accurate.

Perhaps your friends have not considered that by charging at home, they will spend less time fueling in the life of their car compared to using ICE. Most people don't consider never visiting gas stations again in their home town. It is quite a revelation

 

[ChrisA]

Buddy:

You may be missing a crucial point in your preaching on charging. Once you own an S, you realize that an EV with 200+ miles of range crosses a threshold that makes it more convenient than an ICE. Every morning you wake up with a "full tank" with virtually no effort. I don't think its uncommon for people with ICEs to occasionally forget they are low on gas, only to realize it when they hop in their car. You then need to tack on an unanticipated trip to the gas station before your appointment. At least, this used to happen to me, but no more with an S. So the Super Charging vs. filling station comparison really only applies to distance travel. For me, that's less than 1% of driving. For most, I imagine it's less than 5%. And, when you do distance travel, you typically stop longer, though in these circumstances and ICE has an edge, but not a big one. So a small + for an ICE in 5% or less of your driving vs a clear convenience edge for a Model S the vast majority of the time.

 

[jhm]

Those numbers look a lot more realistic than, "Supercharghers that give you 100-200 miles of range in 10 minutes." If the BEST you ever got was 90 miles in 15 minutes, I don't see how anyone could ever get 100-200 miles in 10 minutes - not even 100, much less 200.

I don't own a Tesla and I know Tesla doesn't always keep their web page 100% up to date. So, I just wanted to make sure that the charge times I have been quoting to people were accurate. I can tell you for sure that I have MANY wealthy friends that would have bought a Model S a LONG time ago if you could get anything near 200 miles of range in 10 minutes of charging.

Just to put 200 mile in 10 minutes into perspective, that would imply an average charge rate of 384 kW = 200 mile / 10 min × 60 min per hour × 0.320 kWh per mile. This is about 3 times the current maximum rate of Superchargers. It would be a savings of about 30 minutes off of a 40 minute Supercharge.

How many thousands of dollars more per car do we think consumers would be willing to pay just to carve 5 minutes off of Supercharge time? Sure it would be nice to get at no incremental cost, but it I had to pay $2000 for an option that would allow me to shave 5 minutes off of a 40 minute charge, I doubt I would take the option. I just would use it often enough to make it worthwhile. How about $2000 to save 20 minutes on a 200 mile charge? I still don't think I'd cough up the cash, but I'd think about it. Consumers will often think that they need certain performance feature, but when you get down to figuring out how much you'd really be willing to pay for such a feature, the answer is often not very much. Current Supercharger rates are more than adequate for most consumers. The high price of the car is the bigger issue than any particular performance attibute.

The basic reason why Tesla should reduce the charge time at Superchargers is not that consumers are willing to pay for that, but that it will minimize the number of Superchargers Tesla must maintain. This may become an issue as the fleet grows larger. A faster Supercharger will be able to serve a greater number of cars per day.

 

[dmckinstry]

Range anxiety is not knowing where you're going to pee in the next 45 miles.

Exactly.

 

[AlMc]

Range anxiety in my household (my wife) is lessened with each improvement that is made in long distance travel. This improvement was mostly about showing that there are options and the car can help you plan/execute the travel. The ultimate removal of her anxiety (whether it is rational or not...believe me, I have had MANY a discussion with her about this) is when (IF) she can get an additional 150 miles in a 10 minute charge (time it takes to 'gas up) OR 250 miles in 25 minutes (time it takes to gas up, use the bathroom and grab something quick to eat).

 

[FANGO]

You can ask a thousand Tesla layman why they wouldn't buy a Tesla and 950 will say, "it takes too long to charge". It doesn't matter that they will save AMPLE hours of fueling their ICE car during their daily driving

This won't be "fixed" by anything other than education, adoption, and word of mouth. Dumb Luddites will take forever to get used to the idea, reasonable people will accept it when they have it explained to them and they realize how much better it is, and crazy early adopters will jump in without caring about the explanations because they know they can handle it and they like new experiences anyway. The curve will continue and will be steep. It just needs to be steeper, unfortunately.

Just a lot less fanfare leading up to it would have made it seem a lot better. People were expecting something mega and got, well, something pretty cool.

A tweet for a press call = fanfare and hype? Are you serious?

He said it was going to be a software update. It was very easy to guess that it would be nav improvements. All the hype is the problem of the hypers, not of the person who announced exactly what the announcement would be and made it really easy to figure out what it would be about. There was no fanfare at all.

 

[FANGO]

Do they have to? ... This situation is unique to EVs and Tesla and they are addressing it.

Yes they do, have you never seen highway signs stating how many miles until the next gas station? This is like that, only the car is smarter about it instead of having to rely on signs and the significant amount of cost and labor it takes to put them up on every road in the country. They've been doing this for well over half a century, so yeah, they do have to, this is nothing unique to Tesla whatsoever.

- - - Updated - - -

It seems underwhelming compared to the grandiose ending range anxiety backdrop. I expected them to show they are addressing all aspects of range issues and demonstrate how one by one your anxiety is constantly melting away with their solution. The inverter optimization, hypermiling software tweaks give even your old car increased range. Battery improvements will provide even more range while everyday more charging possibilities come online. The real world and real time mapping already get you from A to B automatically and very soon will steer you to the closest charging station should you require a special stop. Maybe a business franchise will take them up on the free HPWC to give people another mental safety blanket when considering an EV. Like hey, worst case I stop at Dennys, Tim Hortons or McDonalds and snack type of familiarity. Just my $.02.

You were expecting a rational, well-thought-out, point-by-point rebuttal to what is already an irrational belief? "Range anxiety" is not rational, it's people who can't bother to spend a few seconds to do some math in their head and figure out that every path they travel is well-handled by superchargers. So this update takes those few seconds and lets the car do it instead of them. So this does, indeed, address the source of "range anxiety" - people's incompetence and/or refusal to plan ahead. "Optimizing inverters" doesn't do that. Also, pretty sure this is just a first step, I can think of many ways trip-planning software could be made more intelligent, and I'm sure they'll all eventually make their way into the car - all cars, via software update.

As far as I'm concerned the only problem is that Elon said it would "end" something that doesn't exist.

As for the HPWC thing, I think that's a great part of this. Since Tesla has already explicitly said that the car will direct you towards places to do stuff on the way, they could very easily partner with businesses and tell them that if they participate in the destination charging program and guarantee that the charger is well-maintained and the parking spot kept available, they will deliver HNW customers right to their doorstep. This could be a big boon to growing that program quickly.

 

[InTheShadows]

Where can you get 200 miles of range in 10-15 minutes? I thought the ABSOLUTE best one could hope for was 130 miles in 20 minutes. Has that been improved?

And where in the heck do you get gas that takes 15 minutes? I'm usually out in 5 minutes or less. Especially if I'm in a hurry. Even Tesla's demonstration of the battery swap didn't have the simulated ICE fill-up taking 15 minutes.

At Harris Ranch you can get 270 miles in 3 minutes.

Fueling our F350 takes 30 minutes when the stations tanks are low and it's cold. 5 of those minutes are spent waiting for the pump to reset and swiping the credit card a second time to fill up.