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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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Don't let this get lost in all the noise:

RW Baird said Tesla remains its top pick for 2015, and maintained its "outperform" rating on shares of the electric car maker with a price target of $275. Recent meetings with Tesla management make the firm more comfortable with delivery guidance as well as the Model X debut in the third quarter.

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What next? I would have thought there would be a bigger drop than there has been based on the announcement but a lot of people were already bearish so maybe there's no sellers left?

Sellers already sold. It wasn't spectacular buying news, but it wasn't cause to initiate selling either.

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Also, there is the news that Chris Christie signed the bill allowing Tesla to sell directly in NJ.
 
It was a bit of a non-event, investor wise. It basically confirmed the middle ground position : China is a long term play, model X is on track, features are still rolling out. Don't expect a big impact either way : Tesla is going to continue moving sideways. My next short term date for substantial information is begin April when all the European countries will report full Q1 sales.
 
Come on. Tesla is starting to show off the connectivity and communication between sc and cars. This is just the tip of the iceberg of what this kind of connectivity can achieve.

I just feel like these features could have been presented with a little more amazement.
 
Come on. Tesla is starting to show off the connectivity and communication between sc and cars. This is just the tip of the iceberg of what this kind of connectivity can achieve.

I just feel like these features could have been presented with a little more amazement.

You won't see as much amazement here because we drive the car and we knew that this was in the works. This press event seemed to be more for the tech blogs and car mags.
 
Not a non-event. People are ignoring the significant information that was announced.

Range anxiety is almost entirely because people are accustomed to doing things a certain way. These updates will prompt people to be more focused on "cues" from the vehicle than on if they will have enough range.

Also, I suspect this will cause Tesla to discourage and ultimately stop people from using Supercharger spots as parking spaces, and will eliminate the problem of people getting ICED with sensors at Superchargers that detect if a non-Tesla vehicle is parked at a Supercharger station.

Also, if you include all fast chargers, fast chargers currently out number gas stations.

One of the most significant parts of the call was that any business that caters to Tesla customers is able to get Tesla Fast Chargers for free, as long as the chargers are "Displayed Prominently." This is a very big deal. In some states, businesses are eligible for rebates equal to the cost of the fast charger, which basically makes it free for Tesla and free for the business.

Also, it encourages Tesla owners to frequent restaurants and shopping centers with Tesla chargers. (the same way gas stations current use "convenient stores")

This a plus for businesses with Superchargers, the state economies where these businesses reside, and for Tesla.

Also, this eliminates one of the main arguments states have against Electric Vehicles. The anti-EV lobby claims public roads are dependent on the sale of gasoline, because of the tax revenue from the sale of gasoline, and because of the tax revenues from the "convenient stores". By producing a semi partnership with local retailers and small businesses Tesla will bring money to businesses and jobs to states that would otherwise not be present. Seems like a no-brainer.

I'm working on a comprehensive article on this topic. If someone knows more about who is paying for the Range Extenders and Supercharger Network Tesla currently has, in different states/countries please PM me.

I know Tesla is paying for a good chunk of it, but I think Tesla receives private funding and rebates , that vary depending on the state/country for many of the chargers. What ever happened to the person in China who volunteered to personally pay to speed up the development of the Chinese Supercharge network?
 
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Not a non-event. People are ignoring the significant information that was announced.

Range anxiety is almost entirely because people are accustomed to doing things a certain way. These updates will prompt people to be more focused on "cues" from the vehicle than on if they will have enough range.

Also, I suspect this will cause Tesla to discourage and ultimately stop people from using Supercharger spots as parking spaces, and will eliminate the problem of people getting ICED with sensors at Superchargers that detect if a non-Tesla vehicle is parked at a Supercharger station.

Also, if you include all fast chargers, fast chargers currently out number gas stations.

Having the car take into account whether destination charging is available is the key to this new mentality. You aren't seeking a gas station along the way in the traditional sense but while you stop for whatever you were doing, it is refilling itself automatically. So it's even less of an issue on your mind since your used to my 'tank' is just always full.
 
Not a non-event. People are ignoring the significant information that was announced.

Range anxiety is almost entirely because people are accustomed to doing things a certain way. These updates will prompt people to be more focused on "cues" from the vehicle than on if they will have enough range.

Also, I suspect this will cause Tesla to discourage and ultimately stop people from using Supercharger spots as parking spaces, and will eliminate the problem of people getting ICED with sensors at Superchargers that detect if a non-Tesla vehicle is parked at a Supercharger station.

Also, if you include all fast chargers, fast chargers currently out number gas stations.

One of the most significant parts of the call was that any business that caters to Tesla customers is able to get Tesla Fast Chargers for free, as long as the chargers are "Displayed Prominently." This is a very big deal. In some states, businesses are eligible for rebates equal to the cost of the fast charger, which basically makes it free for Tesla and free for the business.

Also, it encourages Tesla owners to frequent restaurants and shopping centers with Tesla chargers. (the same way gas stations current use "convenient stores")

This a plus for businesses with Superchargers, the state economies where these businesses reside, and for Tesla.

Also, this eliminates one of the main arguments states have against Electric Vehicles. The anti-EV lobby claims public roads are dependent on the sale of gasoline, because of the tax revenue from the sale of gasoline, and because of the tax revenues from the "convenient stores". By producing a semi partnership with local retailers and small businesses Tesla will bring money to businesses and jobs to states that would otherwise not be present. Seems like a no-brainer.

I'm working on a comprehensive article on this topic. If someone knows more about who is paying for the Range Extenders and Supercharger Network Tesla currently has, in different states/countries please PM me.

I know Tesla is paying for a good chunk of it, but I think Tesla receives private funding and rebates , that vary depending on the state/country for many of the chargers. What ever happened to the person in China who volunteered to personally pay to speed up the development of the Chinese Supercharge network?

Most people, outside of owners and employees, know that the limiting factor on sales at this point is charge time (even if a $35k car was available right now). You can ask a thousand Tesla layman why they wouldn't buy a Tesla and 950 will say, "it takes too long to charge". It doesn't matter that they will save AMPLE hours of fueling their ICE car during their daily driving - all they know is that on those 3, 4, maybe even 6 times a year they drive long distances, they will have to stop every couple of hours for 40 minutes or more to recharge.

There's nothing about this announcement that changes that, so to the common ICE-driving person, nothing has really changed. This announcement came with WAY too much fanfare. If Musk keeps this up, his twitter announcements will soon have very little impact. Even from this one, we can see that many people already expected a let-down. I'm not sure why Musk has never gotten the concept of under-promise, over-deliver, or under-hype, over-impress. This simply is NOT that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. Should have just been a small announcement.

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Come on. Tesla is starting to show off the connectivity and communication between sc and cars. This is just the tip of the iceberg of what this kind of connectivity can achieve.

I just feel like these features could have been presented with a little more amazement.

Just a lot less fanfare leading up to it would have made it seem a lot better. People were expecting something mega and got, well, something pretty cool. They could have also done a simulated trip with some screenshots to show how the system works and how it looks on the screen.
 
Most people, outside of owners and employees, know that the limiting factor on sales at this point is charge time (even if a $35k car was available right now). You can ask a thousand Tesla layman why they wouldn't buy a Tesla and 950 will say, "it takes too long to charge". It doesn't matter that they will save AMPLE hours of fueling their ICE car during their daily driving - all they know is that on those 3, 4, maybe even 6 times a year they drive long distances, they will have to stop every couple of hours for 40 minutes or more to recharge.

There's nothing about this announcement that changes that, so to the common ICE-driving person, nothing has really changed. This announcement came with WAY too much fanfare. If Musk keeps this up, his twitter announcements will soon have very little impact. Even from this one, we can see that many people already expected a let-down. I'm not sure why Musk has never gotten the concept of under-promise, over-deliver, or under-hype, over-impress. This simply is NOT that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. Should have just been a small announcement.

I'm almost positive this announcement was not intended to sway the average car buyer, who is not currently considering buying a Tesla. It was for the media, current owners, those considering buying a Model S or Model X, Mode 3, and those who understand the long term significance of the information it included.

Anyone not currently considering buying a Tesla or an EV has no idea this announcement took place, and won't know about it until it gets reported on. Even then, people tend to read reports about subjects they are interested in. This announcement is significant for its intended audience.

Teala already has has a list of over 500,000 who are interested in any information about the Model 3.

Also, I'd wager many Model S owners and those who are planning to buy the Model X will also be buying the Model 3.
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The biggest mistake people on this forum make is assuming everyone in the world is following the developments at Tesla. I've met many people who have heard of Tesla but don't know anything about the Model S or Model X. I've also met many people who don't know anything about Tesla or Electric Vehicles.
 
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Most people, outside of owners and employees, know that the limiting factor on sales at this point is charge time (even if a $35k car was available right now). You can ask a thousand Tesla layman why they wouldn't buy a Tesla and 950 will say, "it takes too long to charge". It doesn't matter that they will save AMPLE hours of fueling their ICE car during their daily driving - all they know is that on those 3, 4, maybe even 6 times a year they drive long distances, they will have to stop every couple of hours for 40 minutes or more to recharge.

There's nothing about this announcement that changes that, so to the common ICE-driving person, nothing has really changed. This announcement came with WAY too much fanfare. If Musk keeps this up, his twitter announcements will soon have very little impact. Even from this one, we can see that many people already expected a let-down. I'm not sure why Musk has never gotten the concept of under-promise, over-deliver, or under-hype, over-impress. This simply is NOT that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. Should have just been a small announcement.

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Just a lot less fanfare leading up to it would have made it seem a lot better. People were expecting something mega and got, well, something pretty cool. They could have also done a simulated trip with some screenshots to show how the system works and how it looks on the screen.

It's Elon's way of securing free advertising to open the minds of people with very little understanding of the actual user experience of Tesla's cars. He's talked in the past of how the use of "superlatives" gets people's attention. That's why his precursor to SpaceX was to send a little bit of plant life to Mars... to create "first life known outside Earth" talk, in the hopes of rekindling public interest in space exploration (and funding). Elon can technically claim that this ends range anxiety to pick up the free advertising that comes with the attention created by bold statements. I'd say if Elon had a role in hype around the announcement, it was Elon saying something technically true, but not necessarily true to the spirit of the general public's wariness of the range of EVs. He had his reason to do this. The rest of the hype... I guess many of us simply like speculating, and imagining what we wish to see will be here as soon as now.
 
Does any other car plan your refuel stops for you?

Do they have to? At almost every intersection and highway exit, you'll find a refuel station. This situation is unique to EVs and Tesla and they are addressing it.

I don't believe today's announcement will solve range anxiety. It will certainly help people to go from A to B but there will be a learning curve to trust computer system (and computers do make mistakes as they are programmed by humans). And, there still are compromises compared to ICE like speed limits, usage of AC and what not.
 
Why is Mark B Spiegel harassing Elon on Twitter? Is the only acting member of a very suspect "hedge fund" allowed to do this?

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Teala already has has a list of over 500,000 who are interested in any information about the Model 3.


What's your source/reference on the 500k interested in Model 3?

518k Followers on Twitter (increasing by around 500 daily) and 809k Followers on Facebook.

If Twitter is a way to measure interest, there will be people interested in Tesla than BMW by the end of 2015.

If you look at the views, likes, and quality of comments per post on Facebook, Tesla, in many ways, is already more popular than BMW.
 
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Do they have to? At almost every intersection and highway exit, you'll find a refuel station. This situation is unique to EVs and Tesla and they are addressing it.

I don't believe today's announcement will solve range anxiety. It will certainly help people to go from A to B but there will be a learning curve to trust computer system (and computers do make mistakes as they are programmed by humans). And, there still are compromises compared to ICE like speed limits, usage of AC and what not.

When I drive San Diego to SF, in a gas car, much of my trip I'm mentally deciding when to optimize my fuel stops.

So, yes, Tesla has leaped ahead of ICE in preventing range anxiety. And ICE would benefit from this type of experience.
 
It's Elon's way of securing free advertising to open the minds of people with very little understanding of the actual user experience of Tesla's cars. He's talked in the past of how the use of "superlatives" gets people's attention. That's why his precursor to SpaceX was to send a little bit of plant life to Mars... to create "first life known outside Earth" talk, in the hopes of rekindling public interest in space exploration (and funding). Elon can technically claim that this ends range anxiety to pick up the free advertising that comes with the attention created by bold statements. I'd say if Elon had a role in hype around the announcement, it was Elon saying something technically true, but not necessarily true to the spirit of the general public's wariness of the range of EVs. He had his reason to do this. The rest of the hype... I guess many of us simply like speculating, and imagining what we wish to see will be here as soon as now.

Most tech company CEOs do this kind of thing, it is just that Elon garners an unual amount of media attention when he does it.
 
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