Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[JRP3]

A tweet for a press call = fanfare and hype? Are you serious?

He said it was going to be a software update. It was very easy to guess that it would be nav improvements. All the hype is the problem of the hypers, not of the person who announced exactly what the announcement would be and made it really easy to figure out what it would be about. There was no fanfare at all.

On the other hand Tesla could have simply released the update when ready and made an announcement on the website describing it. There was really no need to pre-announce the update with a tweet and a press call, unless they wanted some hype. Especially characterizing it as "the end of range anxiety".

 

[FANGO]

Not if Tesla wants to be a major car manufacturer. I preach Tesla constantly to my friends/acquaintances (without being obnoxious). Almost exclusively, their reason for not considering a Tesla is range/charge time (one guy said he also liked the roar of his car engine). And often when I say, "you can charge it to 80% in about 40 minutes" - most say, "what? I thought they had some super high speed chargers, that's even worse than I thought. I'm not stopping for 40 minutes every 2 to 2.5 hours." None of them ever say they worry that much about running out of power (after I explain the SC network), but all say there is no way they will spend 25% or more of their travel time sitting at charging stations. The people I discuss this with are not limited to a geographical area or a political leaning, etc. I speak with a very diverse group of people about Tesla (hey, we're all salesman aren't we?) so I'm hard-pressed to believe my sample group is not pretty accurate.

You're doing it wrong then. How long does it take to charge? About five seconds, in the place your car is already parked, instead of having to drive to another part of town and wait ten minutes at a gross gas station while emptying your wallet to terrorists (ISIS funds itself through oil). How far does it go? Who cares, it's more than enough to cover all your driving for the day. How do I take it on roadtrips? Probably the same way you take your normal car - drive a few hours, stop to get out and eat and fill up, drive a few more hours. Or rent a car if that's what you already do on roadtrips, because many people do, especially people who lease their cars.

It's really no different (except the parts where it's better, of course). People don't do cannonball runs.

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On the other hand Tesla could have simply released the update when ready and made an announcement on the website describing it. There was really no need to pre-announce the update with a tweet and a press call, unless they wanted some hype. Especially characterizing it as "the end of range anxiety".

Yes, that's fair. I had issue with that statement as well - mostly because, as you know, I don't think "range anxiety" is a rational/realistic thing in the first place so I think it was silly for Elon to inspire so much conversation about it (and thus reminding prospective customers of the thing the oil companies keep telling them makes EVs "inferior").

But I still don't think a tweet qualifies as fanfare or hype. And the people who were disappointed about this are the people who were going into crazy speculation about hardware changes, when the tweet specifically said software, which I thought made it pretty obvious that it would just be a nav system update.

 

[pGo]

Yes they do, have you never seen highway signs stating how many miles until the next gas station? This is like that, only the car is smarter about it instead of having to rely on signs and the significant amount of cost and labor it takes to put them up on every road in the country. They've been doing this for well over half a century, so yeah, they do have to, this is nothing unique to Tesla whatsoever.

I disagree. I have not seen a person thinking about range anxiety issues before buying an ICE. I've seen many who won't buy EVs because of range anxiety. Tesla is many step ahead of others, but this issue is definitely unique to EVs.

Overall, the announcement is what most here expected except some wild guesses here and there. Where do we go from here? I feel that the stock will be under pressure in the absence of another announcement this month. Planning to sell puts to acquire stock at 185 expiring two weeks from now.

 

[Curt Renz]

I suspect that the software upgrade announced today was mainly to overcome the objections of potential buyers who might have range anxiety, or have been told by others that they should have range anxiety. For the most part, Model S owners seem to have no range anxiety. They know that fueling following daily commutes requires less of their time, is more convenient and costs less than having to locate and spend time and money at a gas station. For the occasional long trip, they know how to monitor their battery consumption and map out free Supercharger stations where they can also stop to eat and visit restrooms. Now the new software can do all of the monitoring and planning for them. It's not a necessity, but it may attract more buyers. If there were already many more Model S owners, then word of mouth would have been more effective at alleviating any range anxiety among potential buyers.

 

[Runarbt]

I suspect that the software upgrade announced today was mainly to overcome the objections of potential buyers who might have range anxiety, or have been told by others that they should have range anxiety. For the most part, Model S owners seem to have no range anxiety. They know that fueling following daily commutes requires less of their time, is more convenient and costs less than having to locate and spend time and money at a gas station. For the occasional long trip, they know how to monitor their battery consumption and map out free Supercharger stations where they can also stop to eat and visit restrooms. Now the new software can do all of the monitoring and planning for them. It's not a necessity, but it may attract more buyers. If there were already many more Model S owners, then word of mouth would have been more effective at alleviating any range anxiety among potential buyers.

+1

The tweet wasnt aimed at us who already have the car. We would have figured it out when the update was installed, but to media to get through to potential new customers which still believe in range anxiety. Free media coverage = the standard advertisement Elon uses. ;-)

The tweet was, imo, just a way of getting free publicity/advertisement for their new update, which will get them more car buyers. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

[doggusfluffy]

You were expecting a rational, well-thought-out, point-by-point rebuttal to what is already an irrational belief? "Range anxiety" is not rational, it's people who can't bother to spend a few seconds to do some math in their head and figure out that every path they travel is well-handled by superchargers. So this update takes those few seconds and lets the car do it instead of them. So this does, indeed, address the source of "range anxiety" - people's incompetence and/or refusal to plan ahead. "Optimizing inverters" doesn't do that. Also, pretty sure this is just a first step, I can think of many ways trip-planning software could be made more intelligent, and I'm sure they'll all eventually make their way into the car - all cars, via software update.

As far as I'm concerned the only problem is that Elon said it would "end" something that doesn't exist.

As for the HPWC thing, I think that's a great part of this. Since Tesla has already explicitly said that the car will direct you towards places to do stuff on the way, they could very easily partner with businesses and tell them that if they participate in the destination charging program and guarantee that the charger is well-maintained and the parking spot kept available, they will deliver HNW customers right to their doorstep. This could be a big boon to growing that program quickly.

I think we're almost entirely in agreement here. I was suggesting that if you're battling against perception, then do it on all fronts. One possible roadblock being that your batteries will 'wear out' and lose their range I've heard. Being stranded is another. Also the VHS vs. Betamax argument that EV is a fad in general. So by highlighting that the newest battery packs are better, last longer, charge faster is a good counterpoint to enhance how it's rapidly improving...while you've got everyone's attention. That your outdated model S got an OTA inverter improvement that instead of wearing out, added 5-10 miles range on Cruise control or charged your battery more efficiently (allegedly on all counts). Not only is your old Model S better with the 6.2 upgrade, but if potentially any of the 100 pages of speculation about enhancements to the newest Model S you can order today again...a little range improvement, less battery degradation through chemistry and improved computing power and sensors. All maybe check off a box of doubt or a lingering reservation.

I'm not even suggesting that any of it is rational. Merely that if it is irrational, perception, doubt or risk that is 'range anxiety' then why not flood them with every possible way Tesla(EV) is the car of choice. Oh yeah, and remember the days of waiting around and getting your oil changed? Buckshot of knowledge. Presuming your stated goal is ending the myth completely.

We also agree about this being a business opportunity, at least until EV charging isn't a novelty anymore. Movie theaters, restaurants and shopping malls all seem logical partners.

 

[Curt Renz]

+1 This was the reason for the tweet.

It wasnt aimed at us who already have the car. We would have figured it out when the update was installed, but to potential customers which still believe in range anxiety.
Free media coverage = the standard advertisement Elon uses. ;-)

The tweet was, imo, just a way of getting free publicity/advertisement for their new update, which will get them more car buyers. Nothing more, nothing less.

Indeed, the tweet and press conference were forms of free advertising aimed at potential car buyers, not investors or current Model S owners. Elon is a master of this technique that avoids advertising expenses, yet gets the word out. Effectively producing and selling the very best cars is his mission, with the understanding that successfully accomplishing this will ultimately support and boost the TSLA share price.

 

[sundaymorning]

+1 This was the reason for the tweet.

It wasnt aimed at us who already have the car. We would have figured it out when the update was installed, but to potential customers which still believe in range anxiety.
Free media coverage = the standard advertisement Elon uses. ;-)

The tweet was, imo, just a way of getting free publicity/advertisement for their new update, which will get them more car buyers. Nothing more, nothing less.

Yep, if you don't "hype" your own product, you're a fool. Commercials aren't fun to watch without the hype..How many car commercials do not use hype in their advertisement? "The Ultimate driving machine," or Mercedes: "the best or nothing," how about Ford: "Trade up to Ford." Right, I'll trade my Lexus up to a Ford..

Elon's tweeter account is worth hundreds of millions in advertisement value, if car companies had that kind of drawing power in their platform, they'll use it up all day. There's no such thing as bad publicity.. not every average Joe will comprehend today's announcement right away, but I'm sure a handful did, and the sheer media attention alone made thousands of owners instantly aware of MS's new capabilities without spending a dime. Now that's marketing!

After a lot of thought over this, my opinion is that the use of the term "range anxiety" is masterful. How else could Tesla draw awareness from the likes of major media outlets, owners, car enthusiast, Consumer Reports, investors, non-believers, etc without paying a dime? By simply tweeting "new software update" coming soon? We can call it hype, but I'm calling it genius..

 

[MikeC]

Ben Kallo knows what's up: Pro: Tesla my top pick this year | Watch the video - Yahoo Finance

Did he just throw in at the very end: "Gigafactory, it's ahead of schedule, due online by next month"?

Perhaps he misspoke and meant next year?

 

[jhm]

Yep, if you don't "hype" your own product, you're a fool. Commercials aren't fun to watch without the hype..How many car commercials do not use hype in their advertisement? "The Ultimate driving machine," or Mercedes: "the best or nothing," how about Ford: "Trade up to Ford." Right, I'll trade my Lexus up to a Ford..

Elon's tweeter account is worth hundreds of millions in advertisement value, if car companies had that kind of drawing power in their platform, they'll use it up all day. There's no such thing as bad publicity.. not every average Joe will comprehend today's announcement right away, but I'm sure a handful did, and the sheer media attention alone made thousands of owners instantly aware of MS's new capabilities without spending a dime. Now that's marketing!

After a lot of thought over this, my opinion is that the use of the term "range anxiety" is masterful. How else could Tesla draw awareness from the likes of major media outlets, owners, car enthusiast, Consumer Reports, investors, non-believers, etc without paying a dime? By simply tweeting "new software update" coming soon? We can call it hype, but I'm calling it genius..

+1 Spot on. This kind of media attention is worth millions of dollars of paid advertising. The tweets are for grabbing media attention, not for traders to speculate on.

And we should get used to this. Musk has set the expectation that upgrades like this will be announced every 3 to 4 months. Next up, automated steering and other autopilot goodies.

This is the advertising campaign. Shareholders need to get onboard with it.

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Ben Kallo knows what's up: Pro: Tesla my top pick this year | Watch the video - Yahoo Finance

Did he just throw in at the very end: "Gigafactory, it's ahead of schedule, due online by next month"?

Perhaps he misspoke and meant next year?

It's got to be next year.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

As I expected, this was a nice software upgrade. No surprise that there was a minor selloff on the news. I think speculators bought up on the chance that Elon might announce something outrageous and unexpected, and sold shares when it became obvious that nothing radical would occur.

 

[FANGO]

I disagree. I have not seen a person thinking about range anxiety issues before buying an ICE. I've seen many who won't buy EVs because of range anxiety.

So? What you're telling me is that you've experienced people who are afraid of a new thing. That's not a reflection on the merits of the new thing, that's a refection on the irrationality/complacency of the people you're talking to.

They don't think about the issues when buying the ICE because they've already come to accept the ridiculous compromises they have to make. They accept that they are leashed to gas stations, they accept that they have to waste time and money there instead of filling up for almost nothing at home while they sleep, that they might have to stop on their way to work and be late or from work when all they want to do is get home because they forgot how full their car was, they accept all this ridiculous nonsense because "that's just how it's always been." Just because they don't think about it doesn't make it any less ridiculous. There's so many compromises associated with driving on gas which do not exist for electric.

This software update is not particularly important to many owners, except as has been mentioned the people whose wives have problems with doing the math on where they're going to need to charge or whatever else (*not intending that to be sexist, just pointing out the specific example, I think it was AlMc?). I can see how it would be important to easing the anxiety of people who are thinking of owning the car, since you can tell them "the car will do it for you" instead of "it's easy to plan these things yourself." But I still think the entire concept of range anxiety is silly, and the idea that ICE vehicles do not suffer from a similar phenomenon is flatly wrong. It's just fear of the new.

edit: another thought I haven't mentioned yet. It does seem like the new software could eventually grow in scope, because the car has access to a lot more data and control than it seems to be using. But I'm sure all of that will be added in the future. The car knows current outside temperature, current and past driver use of climate control (separated by profile), current speed, current energy use, topography of the upcoming highway, distance to the nearest charge points, approximate route, traffic, historical energy use on many roads, weather conditions, current supercharger use status, all kinds of things, and all of those could be put together with cruise control to have the car automatically choose an optimal speed to get you to where you're going. It's my understanding that it doesn't set the speed for you or anything, it just tells you the places to stop. Which is fine, but I can see it growing into more over time. That said none of this is that exciting to me since I can already do those calculations on my own and am fully comfortable with them. But I guess it would be useful for some customers.

 

[Buddyroe]

Perhaps your friends have not considered that by charging at home, they will spend less time fueling in the life of their car compared to using ICE. Most people don't consider never visiting gas stations again in their home town. It is quite a revelation

As I mentioned, I offer this little fact every time and it's not worth the trade-off to them.

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Buddy:

You may be missing a crucial point in your preaching on charging. Once you own an S, you realize that an EV with 200+ miles of range crosses a threshold that makes it more convenient than an ICE. Every morning you wake up with a "full tank" with virtually no effort. I don't think its uncommon for people with ICEs to occasionally forget they are low on gas, only to realize it when they hop in their car. You then need to tack on an unanticipated trip to the gas station before your appointment. At least, this used to happen to me, but no more with an S. So the Super Charging vs. filling station comparison really only applies to distance travel. For me, that's less than 1% of driving. For most, I imagine it's less than 5%. And, when you do distance travel, you typically stop longer, though in these circumstances and ICE has an edge, but not a big one. So a small + for an ICE in 5% or less of your driving vs a clear convenience edge for a Model S the vast majority of the time.

I've explained that until I am blue in the face - they simply say they don't see the big deal with stopping for gas once a week compared to spending several hours charging when traveling - making a long trip MUCH longer.

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Just to put 200 mile in 10 minutes into perspective, that would imply an average charge rate of 384 kW = 200 mile / 10 min × 60 min per hour × 0.320 kWh per mile. This is about 3 times the current maximum rate of Superchargers. It would be a savings of about 30 minutes off of a 40 minute Supercharge.

How many thousands of dollars more per car do we think consumers would be willing to pay just to carve 5 minutes off of Supercharge time? Sure it would be nice to get at no incremental cost, but it I had to pay $2000 for an option that would allow me to shave 5 minutes off of a 40 minute charge, I doubt I would take the option. I just would use it often enough to make it worthwhile. How about $2000 to save 20 minutes on a 200 mile charge? I still don't think I'd cough up the cash, but I'd think about it. Consumers will often think that they need certain performance feature, but when you get down to figuring out how much you'd really be willing to pay for such a feature, the answer is often not very much. Current Supercharger rates are more than adequate for most consumers. The high price of the car is the bigger issue than any particular performance attibute.

The basic reason why Tesla should reduce the charge time at Superchargers is not that consumers are willing to pay for that, but that it will minimize the number of Superchargers Tesla must maintain. This may become an issue as the fleet grows larger. A faster Supercharger will be able to serve a greater number of cars per day.

I was simply responding to a poster who said that you could charge 150-200 miles in 10 minutes.

 

[JRP3]

There's no such thing as bad publicity..

That is false, as some might remember from the time when Tesla vehicles suddenly seemed to prone to ƒ!rez.

 

[Yuri_G]

As I mentioned, I offer this little fact every time and it's not worth the trade-off to them.

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I've explained that until I am blue in the face - they simply say they don't see the big deal with stopping for gas once a week compared to spending several hours charging when traveling - making a long trip MUCH longer.

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I was simply responding to a poster who said that you could charge 150-200 miles in 10 minutes.

People don't like change, especially when it comes to hugely expensive items like cars. Word of mouth from owners and test drives are what convert skeptics into believers. If it's not there in front of them people tend to brush things off that don't conform to their ideology.

 

[AlMc]

I know that we have diverged a little from the thread...so, instead of bringing it back, I will continue the divergence. @Fango....Yes, it is my wife (and I did not consider it sexist) that despite having our first S for almost two years still suffers from range anxiety. Certainly not for day to day driving, but longer distances, which we rarely do. I would like to go all TM products in my family and replace her gas guzzling SUV with an X. This has her very concerned for long trips. She worries about she or my daughter driving by themselves and potentially having to stop at a SC at night (like some gas stations would be really safe??)

However, back to EMs recent Press Release/conference. For me, I drive the S all the time and have no range anxiety, even for trips. The press release for me was a 'meh'. But the brilliance of it did not hit me till talking with her after it and reading some other comments here. The brilliance is that EM keeps chipping away/keeping the conversation going/keeps people thinking and maybe making people have the paradigm shift that needs to be made by people like my wife who need to question the status quo/ICE/gas stations.

So, 'the worm maybe turning' in at least one household. Keep it coming EM! :wink:

 

[Krugerrand]

That is false, as some might remember from the time when Tesla vehicles suddenly seemed to prone to ƒ!rez.

It wasn't bad publicity in and of itself, or bad in the end. The only 'bad' was temporary and that 'bad' gave people a buying opportunity. It educated a lot of people about Tesla's batteries, their safety and the safety of the car. Tesla also got to do their first recall that wasn't a recall, showing what they stand for, making the car better, and customers happy. Along with several other positives that came out of those f*res.

 

[Auzie]

So? What you're telling me is that you've experienced people who are afraid of a new thing. That's not a reflection on the merits of the new thing, that's a refection on the irrationality/complacency of the people you're talking to.

Just because they don't think about it doesn't make it any less ridiculous. There's so many compromises associated with driving on gas which do not exist for electric.

Being cautious, even afraid, of new things is quite rational response. It helps with many things including survival.

If people choose not to think too much of the of the ice cars downfalls, it could be because most often they prioritize in their heads which issues deserve their thinking capacity. Personal priorities that vary significantly from our own do not in any way imply that these people are irrational, make ridiculous choices etc. Priorities are most often a reflection of life circumstances.

This software update is not particularly important to many owners, except as has been mentioned the people whose wives have problems with doing the math on where they're going to need to charge or whatever else (*not intending that to be sexist, just pointing out the specific example, I think it was AlMc?).

Making very sexist comment and then saying there is no intention there just makes it more offensive. Your qualifying statement implies full consciousness that the comment you made is sexist, as it is. May it serve you as deserved.

 

[sundaymorning]

That is false, as some might remember from the time when Tesla vehicles suddenly seemed to prone to ƒ!rez.

Allow me to expand on my belief that "there is no such thing as bad publicity." This quote is not meant for a one size fit for all companies. It only applies to products of great superiority. Yes those f/res initially brought the stock down, but it is now a footnote in the company's impressive history. Something of that nature could have easily killed an inferior product, in the way that Fisker was killed..but the fact that Tesla's are less prone to catching f/res than ICE, it essentially opened up the topic for debate, and changes to be made so that the product is even more superior than ever before. Negativity surrounding the f/re issues are very similar to the "range anxiety" discussions we are having now amongst members and friends. Our comments may not change a person's mind right away, but by bringing it up, it will slowly seep into one's thought process at a future time (the "alleluia" or "eureka" moment). In the short term, FUD or negative headlines does two things to a company like Tesla: it'll hurt the share price but will open the topic up for discussion, which eventually leads to awareness and modifications in the long term. Let's face it, not everyone is aware of Tesla's range capabilities, marketing moments like today serves as another moat for us to fight against non-believers, just how many moats are needed to change the thought process of non-believers are contingent on how much discussion those individuals have with adopters. Tesla is a great car, but it can't sell itself to everyone, that's why compnaies need advertisements.

 

[pGo]

So? What you're telling me is that you've experienced people who are afraid of a new thing. That's not a reflection on the merits of the new thing, that's a refection on the irrationality/complacency of the people you're talking to.

They don't think about the issues when buying the ICE because they've already come to accept the ridiculous compromises they have to make. They accept that they are leashed to gas stations, they accept that they have to waste time and money there instead of filling up for almost nothing at home while they sleep, that they might have to stop on their way to work and be late or from work when all they want to do is get home because they forgot how full their car was, they accept all this ridiculous nonsense because "that's just how it's always been." Just because they don't think about it doesn't make it any less ridiculous. There's so many compromises associated with driving on gas which do not exist for electric.

This software update is not particularly important to many owners, except as has been mentioned the people whose wives have problems with doing the math on where they're going to need to charge or whatever else (*not intending that to be sexist, just pointing out the specific example, I think it was AlMc?). I can see how it would be important to easing the anxiety of people who are thinking of owning the car, since you can tell them "the car will do it for you" instead of "it's easy to plan these things yourself." But I still think the entire concept of range anxiety is silly, and the idea that ICE vehicles do not suffer from a similar phenomenon is flatly wrong. It's just fear of the new.

edit: another thought I haven't mentioned yet. It does seem like the new software could eventually grow in scope, because the car has access to a lot more data and control than it seems to be using. But I'm sure all of that will be added in the future. The car knows current outside temperature, current and past driver use of climate control (separated by profile), current speed, current energy use, topography of the upcoming highway, distance to the nearest charge points, approximate route, traffic, historical energy use on many roads, weather conditions, current supercharger use status, all kinds of things, and all of those could be put together with cruise control to have the car automatically choose an optimal speed to get you to where you're going. It's my understanding that it doesn't set the speed for you or anything, it just tells you the places to stop. Which is fine, but I can see it growing into more over time. That said none of this is that exciting to me since I can already do those calculations on my own and am fully comfortable with them. But I guess it would be useful for some customers.

You're acting completely irrational here. Yes we on TMC know the benefits of EVs, and many here have found ways to deal with compromises that come with it specially the early adopters. Challenges remain for mass adoption due to many factors including range anxiety. When Tesla has deployed SCs at every 100 miles, and more word of mouth education reaches to masses, the anxiety will recede.

Most people are not accustomed to reduced speed and lower usage of AC to reach destination. That's a compromise on a very expensive car. Elon knows that focusing on long distance travel needs and show how to address it may reduce the concern. May be he's not targeting you with this release but it will certainly help many with EV range anxiety.