Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[mdemetri]

I know that we have diverged a little from the thread...so, instead of bringing it back, I will continue the divergence. @Fango....Yes, it is my wife (and I did not consider it sexist) that despite having our first S for almost two years still suffers from range anxiety. Certainly not for day to day driving, but longer distances, which we rarely do. I would like to go all TM products in my family and replace her gas guzzling SUV with an X. This has her very concerned for long trips. She worries about she or my daughter driving by themselves and potentially having to stop at a SC at night (like some gas stations would be really safe??)

However, back to EMs recent Press Release/conference. For me, I drive the S all the time and have no range anxiety, even for trips. The press release for me was a 'meh'. But the brilliance of it did not hit me till talking with her after it and reading some other comments here. The brilliance is that EM keeps chipping away/keeping the conversation going/keeps people thinking and maybe making people have the paradigm shift that needs to be made by people like my wife who need to question the status quo/ICE/gas stations.

So, 'the worm maybe turning' in at least one household. Keep it coming EM! :wink:

Thats great and what I love to hear.

But here is what I don't understand about this tweet and reveal: If Tesla is severely demand constrained why is Elon trying to drum up demand with this tweet/reveal?

Bringing this back to TSLA, my concern is that demand is falling and this was Elon's 'secret weapon' to increase demand. If so, this has been deployed very early in the year. I hope someone can tell me why my fears are unfounded.

(BTW, I almost bought puts today for the first time before the presser, but somehow could not pull the trigger to go short on TSLA).

 

[TSLAopt]

Thats great and what I love to hear.

But here is what I don't understand about this tweet and reveal: If Tesla is severely demand constrained why is Elon trying to drum up demand with this tweet/reveal?

Bringing this back to TSLA, my concern is that demand is falling and this was Elon's 'secret weapon' to increase demand. If so, this has been deployed very early in the year. I hope someone can tell me my why fears are unfounded

(BTW, I almost bought puts today for the first time before the presser, but somehow could not pull the trigger to go short on TSLA).

This is not his secret weapon in my opinion...I think he referenced that his secret weapon had something to do with something against auto-dealers, didn't he?

 

[Auzie]

But here is what I don't understand about this tweet and reveal: If Tesla is severely demand constrained why is Elon trying to drum up demand with this tweet/reveal?

Bringing this back to TSLA, my concern is that demand is falling and this was Elon's 'secret weapon' to increase demand. If so, this has been deployed very early in the year. I hope someone can tell me why my fears are unfounded.

(BTW, I almost bought puts today for the first time before the presser, but somehow could not pull the trigger to go short on TSLA).

It would make a lot of business sense to sell as much as possible in US market and as little as possible overseas in unfavourable and getting worse forex situation.

When gigafactory starts supplying batteries, 98% of supply will come from US making strong $ un hedged. Tesla is semi hedged now with battery imports.

 

[mdemetri]

This is not his secret weapon in my opinion...I think he referenced that his secret weapon had something to do with something against auto-dealers, didn't he?

Yes, he did say it was to do with Auto-Dealers. So this is not likely the secret weapon; but why try to drum up demand now?

 

[TSLAopt]

Buddy:

You may be missing a crucial point in your preaching on charging. Once you own an S, you realize that an EV with 200+ miles of range crosses a threshold that makes it more convenient than an ICE. Every morning you wake up with a "full tank" with virtually no effort. I don't think its uncommon for people with ICEs to occasionally forget they are low on gas, only to realize it when they hop in their car. You then need to tack on an unanticipated trip to the gas station before your appointment. At least, this used to happen to me, but no more with an S. So the Super Charging vs. filling station comparison really only applies to distance travel. For me, that's less than 1% of driving. For most, I imagine it's less than 5%. And, when you do distance travel, you typically stop longer, though in these circumstances and ICE has an edge, but not a big one. So a small + for an ICE in 5% or less of your driving vs a clear convenience edge for a Model S the vast majority of the time.

+1 for me and +1 for every friend/colleague/neighbor I know who has an S....we all are families and have two cars (an S and an ICE) and we all still choose to use the S for every road trip we do...if there was meaningful range anxiety then I or some of the people I know would use their ICE instead of the S for road trips.

 

[mdemetri]

Excellent, that makes a lot of sense. But correct me if I am wrong, has Tesla not been increasing prices in proportion to FOREX changes?

 

[Auzie]

Excellent, that makes a lot of sense. But correct me if I am wrong, has Tesla not been increasing prices in proportion to FOREX changes?

$ is racing ahead, price increases are behind forex chages

Other downside is that German imports are now more attractive

US Fed is doing great in delaying rate hike, I hope they delay it even more.

US economy, especially exporters, may be really hurt with strong $

 

[TSLAopt]

Yes, he did say it was to do with Auto-Dealers. So this is not likely the secret weapon; but why try to drum up demand now?

They want to ramp up and make sure they have a substantial backlog for when the X is announced because they're not sure what ratio of new orders at that point will be for X or S.
if the X is so amazing that 80% of new orders are for X once it's revealed, then if there isn't enough of a backlog of S orders then it could cause them to produce less cars for the year then they otherwise could have vs. if it was more like 50/50 order ratio or if there was a big enough back log buffer of S orders when X is announced. Follow me?
That risk of potentially producing/selling less total cars if the X is so amazing is because it will take months to ramp up X from when they announce it. If suddenly 80% of orders are for X going forward then it could be somewhere between 3-12 months before they are able to ramp up production enough with the X to 1600+ per week (1600 is 80% of 2000 per week).

 

[Curt Renz]

Thats great and what I love to hear.

But here is what I don't understand about this tweet and reveal: If Tesla is severely demand constrained why is Elon trying to drum up demand with this tweet/reveal?

Bringing this back to TSLA, my concern is that demand is falling and this was Elon's 'secret weapon' to increase demand. If so, this has been deployed very early in the year. I hope someone can tell me why my fears are unfounded.

(BTW, I almost bought puts today for the first time before the presser, but somehow could not pull the trigger to go short on TSLA).

The company seems to have plenty of orders for Models S & X leading to months of backlogs. Nevertheless, it may be wise to educate, relax and interest the public regarding Tesla's electric cars well before the Model 3 is produced and the Gigafactory starts churning out batteries. Eventually Tesla will likely advertise in the media in the manner of its competitors. It will almost certainly do so, if its going to pump out half a million cars a year. In the meantime while production constrained (which I assume is what you meant) and a news media magnet, tweets and press conferences are clever and inexpensive ways to widely spread the good word.

 

[jhm]

Some people will be early adopters while others wait. I am not at all concerned about winning over late adopters. The EV environment will be very different in 15 years when EV will command half the new car market.

One of the critical points Musk made today was a commitment to doubling the number of Superchargers this year. I believe that means 650 worldwide by the end of the year. But that won't be nearly enough going into the next decade. The software announcements today do exactly what is needed for making the most of this infrastructure. The ability of the software to guide drivers to available resources is critical not only for anxious drivers along unfamiliar routes, but it is also critical for distributing the load from a capacity viewpoint. Some day there may be 10 million Teslas on the road sharing a 10 thousand or so Superchargers. Managing capacity to avoid long lines in some stations while others are underutilized will be an issue. Not only will the software today guide drivers to best locations, but this information will also guide Tesla in accurately planning capacity. I envision a database with travel data history along with SOC, traffic and weather data that analysts can study to identify critical infrastructure needs. For example, what happens when there is a hurricane along the coast? How does an event like that impact charger infrastructure? Where are critical shortages likely? Can all coastal residents with EVs safely evacuate? If Tesla gathers the right sort of data starting today, it will be in a strong position to answer such questions tomorrow and be able to roll out infrastructure in ways that are not only convenient on a pleasant day, but vital and reliable on a very bad day.

Try to imagine a natural disaster evacuation scenario today for drivers of gas vehicles. The highways get backed up, and gas stations start running out of fuel. People spend valuable time just driving around trying to find available fuel, adding congestion to the roads. The kind of app Tesla has introduced could be critical in such a situation. An app that understands how much fuel is in each vehicle's tank, where they are going, and how much fuel is in each gas station could guide each driver to the best available resources, saving time and minimizing search congestion. Such a system could save lives and would definitely reduce stress in a crisis. Just as this sort of app would be beneficial to drivers of gas vehicles, the same applies to EV drivers. In an evacuation scenario it can be beneficial to have both EVs and ICEs on the road, but drivers need to be able to find charging and fueling resources under difficult conditions. In a way, EV drivers will be smarter about this and better prepared because they have availed themselves to using online information resources on a more regular basis. Drivers of gas vehicles take a lot for granted. They think they can just drive around and locate an available gas station by sight along the road. But in a crisis when these drive find one station after another that either has ridiculously long lines or is completely out of gas, they will experience anxiety and disorientation. Social media is increasingly being used to respond to such situations. EV drivers who know how to find available charging infrastructure online as they drive on a routine basis will be prepared in crisis situations to do the same.

 

[sundaymorning]

Thats great and what I love to hear.

But here is what I don't understand about this tweet and reveal: If Tesla is severely demand constrained why is Elon trying to drum up demand with this tweet/reveal?

Bringing this back to TSLA, my concern is that demand is falling and this was Elon's 'secret weapon' to increase demand. If so, this has been deployed very early in the year. I hope someone can tell me why my fears are unfounded.

(BTW, I almost bought puts today for the first time before the presser, but somehow could not pull the trigger to go short on TSLA).

This is not his secret weapon in my opinion...I think he referenced that his secret weapon had something to do with something against auto-dealers, didn't he?

I agree this is not a secret demand weapon being deployed, nor was it meant to drum up demand. It was purely a marketing play to fight back against the constant attack of "range anxiety" critics and let them know that while their arguments are getting weaker, the MS continues to improve as time progresses. I assume that these incremental improvements are perhaps projects that Tesla has been working on and that we "do not know about".. it's also a way to showcase Tesla's ingenuity as a company and lead auto innovator on an unprecedented level never seen before in the auto-industry. What other company do we know of that has this type of pulling power on a software update?

Even when you buy puts, it won't guarantee you'll maximize profits from the drop, for instance, I bought some puts this morning at $202 but sold about 1.5 hours after the announcement at $198, hardly made a profit on them. I was waiting for $194 the entire 1.5 hours, I had my orders pre-set to sell but when the stock bounced back from $196 to $198.xx I caved.. sure one can argue that some profit is better than nothing, you may make money jumping in and out of this stock short term, but also hold a high probability of losing out on the big jumps that occur long term, unless you monitor your portfolio 24/7. Even professional investors are right only 50% of the time, hopefully you aren't holding short term calls.

 

[EnergyMax]

Thats great and what I love to hear.

But here is what I don't understand about this tweet and reveal: If Tesla is severely demand constrained why is Elon trying to drum up demand with this tweet/reveal?

Bringing this back to TSLA, my concern is that demand is falling and this was Elon's 'secret weapon' to increase demand. If so, this has been deployed very early in the year. I hope someone can tell me why my fears are unfounded.

(BTW, I almost bought puts today for the first time before the presser, but somehow could not pull the trigger to go short on TSLA).

This was a poor secret, if it was a secret weapon. Elon publicly talked about the 6.2 features when visiting Europe (Germany?) last year. So I was not surprised at all. Demand is another issue, which I don't think has any reflection from this navigation feature.

 

[RyanT]

I believe the demand secret weapon has to do with the dealers situation. That was somewhere in the discussion when they brought it up.

 

[Auzie]

Hype was over just after 12, now back to business.

We seem to be back where we started before the tweet, on 16.3.2015.

Small improvement in sp before the tweet and after the event could be just a noise.

Imo market seem to be not that interested in undeniable, impressive car improvement.

Perhaps there could be uncertainty about Tesla team ability to translate car improvements into sales.

 

[Runarbt]

Do they have to? At almost every intersection and highway exit, you'll find a refuel station. This situation is unique to EVs and Tesla and they are addressing it.

...

Do people still run out of gas?

I do think the answer to our questions should be "Yes". ;-)

So yes, it might be a good thing, even for fossile cars, for the car to prevent the driver running out of "juice".

 

[schonelucht]

Imo market seem to be not that interested in undeniable, impressive car improvement.

Absolutely. The market already values Tesla on the strength of being a 'silicon valley disruptive car company'. Improvements where the car gets smarter all the time by being connected is something the market takes for granted from Tesla. I might even imagine some investors being surprised that a Tesla couldn't yet nav-route based on known charging infrastructure.

Perhaps there could be uncertainty about Tesla team ability to translate car improvements into sales.

True as well. I think a part of the market still worries about demand. I myself freely admit watching the few numbers we have on that front like a hawk. There are no signs that the sky is falling but there are also few signs that the sky is the limit. Many paths to Model 3 have Tesla selling >100k X+S in 2017. Since the S will be a bit dated by that time, either the X has to sell really well or the S needs a significant revamp like the introduction of the D model gave it. It's all possible but no way a given. If the announcement had been about sales progress (for example if Microsoft had entered into a partnership to buy every employee over a certain pay scale a Tesla company car) then I am fairly confident a smallish pop would have been there.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Sales figures for March will be reported at InsideEVs on Wednesday, April 1st (yes April Fools day).
I expect March to be the first month the factory in Freemont is running at full steam after the west coast port issues and the installing of the new paint shop from Dürr (with annual capacity of 500.000 vehicles).
Sales figures will be reported at InsideEVs.

 

[Auzie]

Absolutely. The market already values Tesla on the strength of being a 'silicon valley disruptive car company'. Improvements where the car gets smarter all the time by being connected is something the market takes for granted from Tesla. I might even imagine some investors being surprised that a Tesla couldn't yet nav-route based on known charging infrastructure.

True as well. I think a part of the market still worries about demand. I myself freely admit watching the few numbers we have on that front like a hawk. There are no signs that the sky is falling but there are also few signs that the sky is the limit. Many paths to Model 3 have Tesla selling >100k X+S in 2017. Since the S will be a bit dated by that time, either the X has to sell really well or the S needs a significant revamp like the introduction of the D model gave it. It's all possible but no way a given. If the announcement had been about sales progress (for example if Microsoft had entered into a partnership to buy every employee over a certain pay scale a Tesla company car) then I am fairly confident a smallish pop would have been there.

Scaling up car sales is much harder than scaling up software sales or consumer electronics sales.

I expect X to sell better than S, in most markets. For some reason, people seem to like that type of car.

There were signs of a sky falling in China. Imo, poor news from China are the largest drag on sp, for twofold reason: the relevance of Chinese market for future demand, but more relevant might be that the initial failures in Chinese market demonstrate inexperience of Tesla team in going after that market. Going through staff does not invoke confidence.

I expect eventually Tesla to sell great in China, one way or the other. Car is just too good and sales may be a matter of awareness and stores and superchargers footprint.

Few hires from the competition who has already expanded western car business to China, would be likely to speed up the process.

Model S might be too pricey for b2b sales, we may have to wait for Model 3 to be adopted into business fleets.

 

[FANGO]

Making very sexist comment and then saying there is no intention there just makes it more offensive. Your qualifying statement implies full consciousness that the comment you made is sexist, as it is. May it serve you as deserved.

It was pointing at a specific example, did you not read almc's post? Try to keep up before lobbing ridiculous accusations.

 

[FANGO]

You're acting completely irrational here. Yes we on TMC know the benefits of EVs, and many here have found ways to deal with compromises that come with it specially the early adopters. Challenges remain for mass adoption due to many factors including range anxiety. When Tesla has deployed SCs at every 100 miles, and more word of mouth education reaches to masses, the anxiety will recede.

Most people are not accustomed to reduced speed and lower usage of AC to reach destination. That's a compromise on a very expensive car. Elon knows that focusing on long distance travel needs and show how to address it may reduce the concern. May be he's not targeting you with this release but it will certainly help many with EV range anxiety.

And yet reduced speed and ac usage are exactly how they would stretch to reach their destination in a gas car. It's physics.

You are being irrational if you think that it's impossible for a gas car to run out, or that there are any less compromises to be made in one. And particularly irrational by spending so much time focusing on this non-issue. You will note that I already pointed out the narrow case in which this would help people in the very post you quoted btw. And those people would only be helped because of their hesitance to learn something new...so like I said, the issue is the fear of the new, which is a problem with the consumer not with the car.

That's also why it's good that the update focuses on making things easier for the consumer rather than changing much about the car. Because the car isn't the issue.