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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Unfortunately, probably not until either:
1. The share price approaches or passes the current 12-month target prices
2. Fundamental shift in business outlook (imo stationary storage announcement has a plausible, albeit very small, chance at this)
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Sorry folks won't have any updates for a bit. I am going into noble silence and observing the 10 percepts of sila
chickensevil
Active Member
Keep in mind that once long ago everyone road around on these things called horses and sometimes would have horses pull these carts around call carriages. Then along came not just one great invention but three. The AC Motor (or sometime DC Motors were used), the Internal Combustion Engine, and the Steam Engine. All three stuck their products onto "carriages" and used it to drive the wheels forward. All three eventually started to compete with each other, but before that happened they were actually competing against horses.
At first, in many ways, horses were so much better than these "horseless carriages". Eventually it became more of a perception problem. And finally the horse's fate was sealed. We are currently in the perception problem phase where anything that pokes holes in the ICE as the end-all-be-all is a good thing in my opinion. At some point, we may find ourselves duking it out EV vs Hydrogen, but for now we need to get people away from their "comfort zone" of what they know, and into accepting of alternatives. Once they do, it will end up (or should end up) as the best product will win.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Nice analogy. It's not simply the best product, but the best infrastructure that wins. In the short run, gasoline has an enormously well developed infrastructure, but what few understand is that that infrastructure costs about $1.12 per gallon or about $6k to $10k per car over the life of the car. By contrast, the EV charging infrastructure is really cheap. Meanwhile, the infrastructure for hydrogen is so expensive, it may only exist where directly paid for by taxpayers. So longer run the infrastructure advantage goes to EVs.
Getting off topic, but someone pointed out a year ago or so how similar the model T ramp is to the Model S ramp:
(model T numbers from wikipedia)
(model T numbers from wikipedia)
| Year | Production | Price for Runabout | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1909 | 10,666 | $825 | ($21,650 in 2015) [SUP][40][/SUP] Touring car was $850 |
| 1910 | 19,050 | $900 | |
| 1911 | 34,858 | $680 | |
| 1912 | 68,773 | $590 | |
| 1913 | 170,211 | $525 | |
| 1914 | 202,667 | $440 | Fiscal year was only 10 months long due to change in end date from Sep 30 to July 31 |
| 1915 | 308,162 | $390 | |
| 1916 | 501,462 | $345 | [SUP][41][/SUP] |
| 1917 | 735,020 | $500 | |
| 1918 | 664,076 | $500 | |
| 1919 | 498,342 | $500 | |
| 1920 | 941,042 | $395 | Production for fiscal year 1920, (August 1, 1919 through July 31, 1920) Price was $550 in March but dropped by Sept |
| 1920 | 463,451 | $395 | Production for balance of calendar year, August 1 though Dec 31 Total '1920' production (17 months) = 1,404,493 |
| 1921 | 971,610 | $325 | Price was $370 in June but dropped by Sept. |
| 1922 | 1,301,067 | $319 | |
| 1923 | 2,011,125 | $364 | |
| 1924 | 1,922,048 | $265 | |
| 1925 | 1,911,705 | $260 | ($3,500 in 2015) Touring car was $290 |
| 1926 | 1,554,465 | $360 | |
| 1927 | 399,725 | $360 | Production ended before mid-year to allow retooling for the Model A |
Yep, with only 3 minutes left on the countdown. Shame, was so exciting. Oh well, same time tomorrow is it? 4:10pm ET if I heard it right.
I've created a thread in the TMC News forum regarding an op-ed article in today's Houston Business Journal written by two top officials of a conservative Texas think tank arguing that selling cars direct to customers shouldn't be illegal in Texas. I found notice of it in the business news section of my AT&T-Yahoo home page.
Link to thread in News forum
Link to Op-Ed Article
I suggest that only discussion relating to the effect of this on the TSLA share price be discussed in this Short-Term Price thread. More general comments would best be presented in that thread in the News forum.
Link to thread in News forum
Link to Op-Ed Article
I suggest that only discussion relating to the effect of this on the TSLA share price be discussed in this Short-Term Price thread. More general comments would best be presented in that thread in the News forum.
everman
Member
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Very interesting article. Almost good on the facts as well, allthough they got the longevity facts all wrong at least when it comes to Tesla's Li-Ion technology. Also note the projections for some of the other technologies (not suited for automotive likely) - maybe a bit optimistic?
3 to 5 years? Someone tell every EV manufacturer, because they all have 8-10 year warranties. Also I guess that means my car doesn't work since its 7 years into the same battery pack with over 95% capacity...
It really amazes me how much people get wrong about batteries. This is an insanely easy fact to check and they are extremely wrong on it. And that bit about nobody knowing how to lower prices? They've been lowering consistently for decades....
It really amazes me how much people get wrong about batteries. This is an insanely easy fact to check and they are extremely wrong on it. And that bit about nobody knowing how to lower prices? They've been lowering consistently for decades....
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