Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Julian Cox]

That was not confirmed based of the transcripts I'm seeing (emphasis mine):



There are several reasons cars sold would differ from cars delivered (eg. bulk China sales, discrepancy of in-transit vehicles at last year's end compared to this year) so i would not recommend treating this as any confirmation of a guidance beat.

Tesla: Sold = Delivered.

 

[Maknyuzz]

I've said this many times about charging issue. I know you fanboys will say, charge at home. But you guys are fanboys, not typical consumers. Superchargers need to be at minimum 25-50 miles apart from each other until range anxiety problem is solved, and this means, superchargers inside the city, superchargers every 25-50 exits of the highway. Charging speed also needs to at least double, at 250Kw rate. Then typical skeptical consumers will get convinced.

 

[The Blue Owl]

The general market reaction in a nutshell:

On the competition: "GM will ship the Chevy Bolt, but not right now. Anyway, it's a Tesla killer. Also, BMW, Porsche, Nissan, Daimler, Toyota and Ford are also killing Tesla right now with Tesla killer cars to be sold in a few years. The future looks great! Tesla is dead."

On Tesla: "Tesla makes unbelievable cars right now. Sales grew from previous quarter. It delivered a bit less than expected to China due to temporary circumstances.

RUN FOR THE HILLS!!!"

 

[Gerasimental]

Puns go over my head sometimes.

I was sipping scotch throughout that entire emotional roller coaster and that particular line just totally cracked me up although I have no idea if it was intentional or not. Related: did you know that China banned puns this year? Sorry all for going off-topic. It will stop now.

Tesla: Sold = Delivered.

Could you explain why this is please? What about cars in transit or the Wu cars?

 

[aznt1217]

Obviously was light hearted, hope no offence taken
Hadn't though about the increased perceived roominess, good point.

Ha never take offense. But my point is pretty obvious. You'll see that the smaller the person the bigger the car they want.

 

[Ingenieur]

GAAP and NON-GAAP will be getting closer as number of leased vehicles increases, so it will not make that much difference in 2016. The only difference will be stock options.
You can not finance your growth with cashflow if its lower then your depreciations, its like pulling yourself out by your own hair (at least as a car company). You invest in equipment to maintain and to expand production. The rephrase Buffet, every Dollar deprecation is real cost

 

[MikeC]

Sure wish I could buy calls after hours. I don't think it will stay at 190 for long.

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Tesla: Sold = Delivered.

Confirmed somewhere?

 

[aznt1217]

Wow this forum thread got A LOT of viewers really quickly. What's everybody's thoughts on movements till the year end report?

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Sure wish I could buy calls after hours. I don't think it will stay at 190 for long.

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Confirmed somewhere?

Correct me if I'm wrong... a car sale is when a customer takes delivery.

 

[MikeC]

Correct me if I'm wrong... a car sale is when a customer takes delivery.

One would think, but the way he answered the question kind of implied they might be different. Otherwise, he would have used the same word when talking about guidance for deliveries vs. actual cars sold.

 

[Julian Cox]

Sure wish I could buy calls after hours. I don't think it will stay at 190 for long.



Confirmed somewhere?

Tesla definition of sales (universally referenced) see Google.

 

[trils0n]

Source for Sold = Deliveries? Tesla takes great pains to go over this every earnings report.

 

[hockeythug]

People are just confused because Musk used both the terms when talking about the 33k delivery guidance.

"Our aspiration was to deliver 33,000 cars" last year. "We sold, in terms of cars, far more than that"

 

[MikeC]

If sold = deliveries, that means they destroyed 33,000 which is huge...

 

[chickensevil]

Can you point out where it is reported that he said that? Or are you at the event? What did he say exactly say? Is it cash flow profitability? Is he talking about breaking even in CAPEX for the Model 3? Is he talking about total net profitability and EPS? Is he talking about profitability specifically for the Model 3? Let's not jump to conclusions here until we have the actual statement.

I can at least suck out the relevant ones I spotted on that discussion from the various live blogs and you can interpret it how you will (since it is all hearsay anyway)

Do you need to start showing profit? "Probably when the Model 3 is in production." Musk is saying 2020, when they have half a million cars in production, is a safe point to start turning a profit.

Nathan Bomey
@NathanBomey
"I'm just not sure we'll have GAAP profitability before 2020," Elon Musk says.

Elon Musk acknowledges that Tesla is not profitable under GAAP.

But he says the company could be profitable under GAAP if it didn't invest heavily in product.

We will at some point start showing a profit," Musk says.

When? "Probably when the Model 3 is in production."

He says the company will be profitable around 2020.

What is GAAP?

HA! yeah all this talk must have been about GAAP profit because this poor guy live blogging is so confused

Brent Snavely
@BrentSnavely

"We will at some point start to begin showing a profit," @TeslaMotors CEO Musk says. But that may take until 2020.

 

[FANGO]

He said they wont be profitable until Model 3 is produced in volumes, citing 2020. This is very bad news imo, my worst case 2016 with 90k Cars

No, I believe he said "show profit." Tesla is already profitable as in when they sell a car they take in more money than it took to build and sell that car, but, like Amazon, puts the money back into the business. "Showing profit" means taking in money which would eventually be given back as dividends to the shareholders, which is supposed to be the idea of owning stock.

Basically what he's said is "in 2020, when we've gotten ourselves up to speed and there's not such a huge amount of room to grow, that's when we're going to stop spending all the money we take in on expanding the business, and instead realize some of it as profit."

 

[Julian Cox]

If sold = deliveries, that means they destroyed 33,000 which is huge...

yes. and they brought forward Model X by 1 quarter which is also huge!

 

[aznt1217]

yes. and they brought forward Model X by 1 quarter which is also huge!

To my point before. 1 Quarter not really. Could be 1 month lol

 

[FANGO]

I've said this many times about charging issue. I know you fanboys will say, charge at home. But you guys are fanboys, not typical consumers. Superchargers need to be at minimum 25-50 miles apart from each other until range anxiety problem is solved, and this means, superchargers inside the city, superchargers every 25-50 exits of the highway. Charging speed also needs to at least double, at 250Kw rate. Then typical skeptical consumers will get convinced.

You really think people in general would rather charge somewhere other than home than at home? C'mon.

Also, for someone who was just complaining about namecalling, perhaps you shouldn't do the same yourself.

 

[chickensevil]

yes. and they brought forward Model X by 1 quarter which is also huge!

Eh, careful there... I want it to be Q2 as much as anyone... but I would take "summer" to mean sticking with the Q3 timing... it just means it would be in July (maybe August) vice September or later. If we are lucky... REALLY LUCKY June... But after all the delays. I am NOT holding my breath there.

 

[Gerasimental]

yes. and they brought forward Model X by 1 quarter which is also huge!

Did they? He said 'summer' - which is approximately June-September. Q3 starts in July, so most likely it's still scheduled for Q3.
Target wasn't Q4 before was it??