Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[NigelM]

@TeslaMotors Twitter "Elon Musk & Model X are at the Texas State Capitol..." (my bold): Tesla Motors on Twitter:

Wow! Here's a pic:

Isn't that the same old prototype?

Everyone stand down. It's the same old protoype that was shown in 2013 and was at CES last week. It's been discussed over in other threads and most notably in Model-X-Design-Prototype-at-Texas-lobbying-event

There's a reason I keep encouraging folks from the Investor section to look at some of the other parts of TMC now and again ;-)

 

[sundaymorning]

Everyone stand down. It's the same old protoype that was shown in 2013 and was at CES last week. It's been discussed over in other threads and most notably in Model-X-Design-Prototype-at-Texas-lobbying-event

There's a reason I keep encouraging folks from the Investor section to look at some of the other parts of TMC now and again ;-)

Although this is old news, it's still nice to see your future baby being displayed. I wonder if it was delivered to Texas or driven there, can anyone confirm?

 

[hockeythug]

Although this is old news, it's still nice to see your future baby being displayed. I wonder if it was delivered to Texas or driven there, can anyone confirm?

They put it in a trailer from Hawthorne to Vegas so most likely did the same here

 

[FredTMC]

TSLA held up well today on an otherwise terrible day for the markets.

Looking forward to the Texas interview replay. please post that link when it's available

thanks

 

[AlMc]

It is about time for an Andrea James appearance! :wink: We could use a little help in explaining that TM is still on track.....

 

[austinEV]

Sorry for anyone that read an earlier version of this post, it had serious errors. There is something about posting that makes me see errors.

What I said in that post, is that I live in Austin yet didn't go down to support Elon like I should have.

And, I know at least one TX state congressman who is the proud owner of a P85D. But I won't "out" him since he has an oil industry constituency.

Trying to follow the run rate conversations, I went and made a table of facts from TM on runrates. Let me know if I have any other errors:

So it does in fact look like the current runrate is probably at least 1200, maybe higher just to straighten out the trend.

 

[Cattledog]

They put it in a trailer from Hawthorne to Vegas so most likely did the same here

Confirmed. According to Tesla folks there, it can only go about 5 MPH.

- - - Updated - - -

Isn't that the same old prototype?

Same old prototype, same old Elon.

 

[maoing]

But I kind of worry about Adam Jonas might drop a bomb before ER.

It is about time for an Andrea James appearance! :wink: We could use a little help in explaining that TM is still on track.....

 

[SteveG3]

apparently Tesla putting out message that Detroit comments from Elon are no reason for analysts or investors to change their earnings models for Tesla. good to hear this. we may not have to wait a few weeks for earnings for some kind of context on Elon's remarks. very general context will probably show up in analyst reports based on conversations with company, possibly some kind of blog (the former seems like selective release of information... that's happened before but can't remember an instance of it happening with something so explicitly about future earnings).

"Tesla is now apparently saying the remarks have been misinterpreted by the news media. According to Evercore ISI, the company “told analysts and investors not to change their models on the back of this.”"

you can google "Wall Street Journal Feedback Tesla" and this article will pop up in today's results

fwiw... it's stuff like this that I thought a "headlines" thread would have been useful for as one of this year's new threads. perhaps it was not practical for the moderators to make one.

 

[DrGuest]

I wish Mr. Musk had a bit of more positive imaginary when he talks in public, instead of very understated facts. He likes to be honest and not exaggerate but it just seems to get misinterpreted. Imagine if he said what this Factory Tour Guide said.

"At one point, our tour guide gestured out at literally dozens—perhaps hundreds—of new robots still under plastic wrap, all awaiting training and installation. The factory is expanding dramatically as Tesla gears up for the release of theirnew SUV.

We have "an army of robots under plastic," the guide said enthusiastically, and he laughed. If there's ever a robot uprising, he joked, this is probably not the best place to be."
The image of a mountain of bubble wrap from dozens and dozens of new robots ready to crank up production! This news gets this investor excited and it explains why not profitable yet, huge investment in infrastructure and production facility.
http://bldgblog.blogspot.com/2014/11...a-factory.html
​

 

[Auzie]

I wish Mr. Musk had a bit of more positive imaginary when he talks in public, instead of very understated facts. He likes to be honest and not exaggerate but it just seems to get misinterpreted. Imagine if he said what this Factory Tour Guide said.

"At one point, our tour guide gestured out at literally dozens—perhaps hundreds—of new robots still under plastic wrap, all awaiting training and installation. The factory is expanding dramatically as Tesla gears up for the release of theirnew SUV.

We have "an army of robots under plastic," the guide said enthusiastically, and he laughed. If there's ever a robot uprising, he joked, this is probably not the best place to be."
The image of a mountain of bubble wrap from dozens and dozens of new robots ready to crank up production! This news gets this investor excited and it explains why not profitable yet, huge investment in infrastructure and production facility.
http://bldgblog.blogspot.com/2014/11...a-factory.html
​

It seems to me that Elon, who does so much good and right in his job, sometimes can not do right by the media. No matter what he says gets twisted, blown out, misinterpreted, etc.

Perhaps the problem is the media and people's expectations.

 

[joefee]

Sorry for anyone that read an earlier version of this post, it had serious errors. There is something about posting that makes me see errors.

What I said in that post, is that I live in Austin yet didn't go down to support Elon like I should have.

And, I know at least one TX state congressman who is the proud owner of a P85D. But I won't "out" him since he has an oil industry constituency.

Trying to follow the run rate conversations, I went and made a table of facts from TM on runrates. Let me know if I have any other errors:

View attachment 69351
View attachment 69352

So it does in fact look like the current runrate is probably at least 1200, maybe higher just to straighten out the trend.

It would be nice to see another line for deliveries to measure the gap between production.

 

[jhm]

It seems to me that Elon, who does so much good and right in his job, sometimes can not do right by the media. No matter what he says gets twisted, blown out, misinterpreted, etc.

Perhaps the problem is the media and people's expectations.

You can't expect media to get something right when their livelihood depends on doing the opposite.

 

[AlMc]

You can't expect media to get something right when their livelihood depends on doing the opposite.

This is the problem with the culture/times we live in. The 'media' loves to sensationalize to pull in ratings. Build something up, then knock it down. EM is perfect for this. The story starts out as 'David vs Goliath' with the young upstart EM vs old ICE manufacturers. When it actually looks like he is accomplishing something and his star is rising, start to tear him down.

Gotcha media.........politics..........

 

[jhm]

Tesla's Musk woos Texas lawmakers with talk of track, car plant - Yahoo Finance

So Texas gets a second chance to do right by Tesla. Musk is dangling the prospects for a new auto factory and hyperloop test track. In Detroit, Musk spoke of another auto factory on the US east coast, so I got the impression that he was looking beyond Texas. (Disclaimer I'd love to see Tesla build cars Atlanta. We've got a vacant GM facility.) But Texas gets a second chance. I'm excited that Musk is starting to shop around for a new factory.

(So will we see a new all time high just in time for a round of bonds to finance a new factory? Will the shorts fall for this again?)

 

[pGo]

The Tesla feedback story to investors and analysts is amazing. I watched the video a few times now and don't feel media misinterpreted Elon. Actually, I was shocked to hear the news just like the headlines presented.

If the Tesla feedback is right and what Elon said a few months ago in fox interview to be believed, Tesla will generate substantial positive cash flow once model x is being produced in big quantities. And..... They may generate gaap in black.

However, I now feel that may be Elon has no clue what gaap is and may be he doesn't care about it as he claims that he spends 80% of his time developing products, a thing I believe where he really belongs. I suggest he learns to ignore the kind of questions and go in full swing when it comes to tech and future and humanity.

Last note, going back and forth generally leaves doubts in common minds. A new investor must be thinking what just happened and what should be believed.

 

[Krugerrand]

But Texas gets a second chance. I'm excited that Musk is starting to shop around for a new factory.

There was talk a while back on the forum about a Texas factory, before the Gigafactory talk started if I remember correctly. Also trying to remember correctly, I think the talk was that Texas was an excellent choice for a TRUCK (I know you like that word of late) and/or Model 3 (when Fremont is at full production cap) factory. So not the first time there's been talk of Texas 'vehicle' factory.

 

[Cattledog]

There was talk a while back on the forum about a Texas factory, before the Gigafactory talk started if I remember correctly. Also trying to remember correctly, I think the talk was that Texas was an excellent choice for a TRUCK (I know you like that word of late) and/or Model 3 (when Fremont is at full production cap) factory. So not the first time there's been talk of Texas 'vehicle' factory.

Pretty good bet that future auto factories and gigafactories will be close geographically. Texas was in the running for a gigafactory and has truck manufacturing already in state, so it's a decent bet for US #2. But likely US # 2 comes after Europe #1 and Asia #1, methinks.

 

[Krugerrand]

If the Tesla feedback is right and what Elon said a few months ago in fox interview to be believed, Tesla will generate substantial positive cash flow once model x is being produced in big quantities. And..... They may generate gaap in black.

However, I now feel that may be Elon has no clue what gaap is and may be he doesn't care about it as he claims that he spends 80% of his time developing products, a thing I believe where he really belongs.

Or, plans have changed. What Elon says today may be entirely different tomorrow because that's just how fast Tesla is moving and changing. It's really easy for CEO's of lumbering snail (can snails even lumber?) companies to say something and have it be consistent month after month and year after year. Tesla changes gears and directions at any given moment and within the same moment.

As has been said many times before, there is nothing traditional here and therefore it's not a stock or company to invest in if you require or expect things to be laid out for you just so and gift wrapped.

 

[Auzie]

The Tesla feedback story to investors and analysts is amazing. I watched the video a few times now and don't feel media misinterpreted Elon. Actually, I was shocked to hear the news just like the headlines presented.

If the Tesla feedback is right and what Elon said a few months ago in fox interview to be believed, Tesla will generate substantial positive cash flow once model x is being produced in big quantities. And..... They may generate gaap in black.

However, I now feel that may be Elon has no clue what gaap is and may be he doesn't care about it as he claims that he spends 80% of his time developing products, a thing I believe where he really belongs. I suggest he learns to ignore the kind of questions and go in full swing when it comes to tech and future and humanity.

Last note, going back and forth generally leaves doubts in common minds. A new investor must be thinking what just happened and what should be believed.

I think the weakness in China got a bit overblown in media, but we will see.

My focus is generally on the car and its quality. The quality of the car is the driver of the demand.

I expect the numbers (delivery, production, margins, etc) to vary from time to time. There will be hiccups with execution, but nothing that can not be overcome. Few months back and forth does not really matter in the long run.