Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[ScepticMatt]

Teslas issues in china are making the news. Here is a comic:

(too small for me to translate besides "china" on the plug)

In other china news, Ricardo Reys (comm chief) did a interview at sina recently.
He said they have high expectations for china, and want to be innovative:
·ÃÌØ˹À*È«ÇòÆ·ÅƸ±×ܲÃRicardo Reyes_ÐÂÀËÆû³µ_ÐÂÀËÍø

I also liked Ben Kallo comments to Corey Johnson:
Tesla Entered China With Very High Expectations: Kallo - Businessweek

 

[Norbert]

See this was exactly what I said. Anyone shocked by the statement that they wouldn't be GAAP profitable until 2020 hasn't been paying attention. The only thing we were told to look for was being decently cash-flow positive in Q3. Which that statement was made before they mentioned the delay of the model X by one quarter, so it wouldn't surprise me if that doesn't happen until Q4... or in a worst case Q1/2016.

Tons of cash will translate into easier funding of another factory *without* the need to raise more funds. This is why they said they don't see a need to raise capital again in the short term. Also why I laugh every time I see someone mention the need to raise capital... because it totally goes against anything that has been said by the company.

It's been my impression, since Model S started making money, that profits are always re-invested in product development such that, approximately, non-Gaap earnings are slightly positive and GAAP earnings are slightly negative. Elon's comment more or less confirms that this will continue until Model 3 "mass" production is in place.

 

[aznt1217]

It's been my impression, since Model S started making money, that profits are always re-invested in product development such that, approximately, non-Gaap earnings are slightly positive and GAAP earnings are slightly negative. Elon's comment more or less confirms that this will continue until Model 3 "mass" production is in place.

Your impression is correct. Certain quarters where there's a huge injection of cash we'll see GAAP profitability. Honestly that's the number people look at with mature companies. In a capital intensive industry such as cars (especially in a growth company) it's a given that the company will reinvest its cash into things like R&D and expansion instead of returning money to the shareholders. Investment is not going to be a straight line either that's why we'll see fluctuations in FCF quarter to quarter and its noted in the financial statments/letters.

It annoys me that people continue to make the argument Tesla isn't making money. There is no demand. It's a niche product. We all know the arguments here and we all know it simply is not the case. Ben Kallo handled the questions very well on his interview with Cory Johnson, but I do wish that people would bring up the vertical integration aspect of Tesla more because that's a key to the better margins that Tesla has versus other car companies and also why they invest so much and things take a little while to "get right." It also allows Tesla to sell things like the powertrain components for extra revenue.

With that said, investors are waiting for the next signals of growth and proof of execution and that's going to come with Model X, guidance, and Giga factory progression. Even if China were out of the picture (which it definitely is not) Tesla at this stage will be fine-- meaning they can still sell every car they make. They just need to re-channel things.

 

[dmunjal]

Your impression is correct. Certain quarters where there's a huge injection of cash we'll see GAAP profitability. Honestly that's the number people look at with mature companies. In a capital intensive industry such as cars (especially in a growth company) it's a given that the company will reinvest its cash into things like R&D and expansion instead of returning money to the shareholders. Investment is not going to be a straight line either that's why we'll see fluctuations in FCF quarter to quarter and its noted in the financial statments/letters.

It annoys me that people continue to make the argument Tesla isn't making money. There is no demand. It's a niche product. We all know the arguments here and we all know it simply is not the case. Ben Kallo handled the questions very well on his interview with Cory Johnson, but I do wish that people would bring up the vertical integration aspect of Tesla more because that's a key to the better margins that Tesla has versus other car companies and also why they invest so much and things take a little while to "get right." It also allows Tesla to sell things like the powertrain components for extra revenue.

With that said, investors are waiting for the next signals of growth and proof of execution and that's going to come with Model X, guidance, and Giga factory progression. Even if China were out of the picture (which it definitely is not) Tesla at this stage will be fine-- meaning they can still sell every car they make. They just need to re-channel things.

As a longtime AMZN shareholder, I know how this feels. As long as they are running a good business, gaining share, and growing top line, I don't mind waiting for profits.

 

[TSLAopt]

As a longtime AMZN shareholder, I know how this feels. As long as they are running a good business, gaining share, and growing top line, I don't mind waiting for profits.

Not sure if this will effect the TSLA stock price in any way but this is pretty exciting stuff

Elon Musk and SpaceX Plan a Space Internet - Businessweek

gotta love his ambition, from the article:

"Musk said it will take many, many years to have his Internet service up and running. “People should not expect this to be active sooner than five years,” he said. And it’ll be expensive: Around $10 billion to build, he says. “But we see it as a long-term revenue source for SpaceX to be able to fund a city on Mars.”

 

[JRP3]

I also liked Ben Kallo comments to Corey Johnson:
Tesla Entered China With Very High Expectations: Kallo - Businessweek

Johnson is such an idiot: "I remember when they couldn't get the frunk open at the X demonstration".

Riiight, that's a significant factor in the value of TSLA Tool...

 

[doggusfluffy]

Haven't seen this posted yet.
An Interview with Elon Musk - YouTube

 

[dmckinstry]

Haven't seen this posted yet.
An Interview with Elon Musk - YouTube

I hadn't, but loved it. The interviewer seemed quite friendly and open to Elon.

 

[ScepticMatt]

New german bill forbidding new tesla-exclusive chargers amongst other things.

German bill requires CCS and L2 plugs at every new fast charge point.

 

[Kutu]

As a longtime AMZN shareholder, I know how this feels. As long as they are running a good business, gaining share, and growing top line, I don't mind waiting for profits.

I agree with you. I almost got a specialty tag for my Model S with AMZN on it because I used profits from AMZN to buy it.

 

[FredTMC]

Haven't seen this posted yet.
An Interview with Elon Musk - YouTube

Just to be clear... This was an interview during Elon's visit to Texas this past week

 

[MartinAustin]

Is there a date that TM normally announces the date of the ER? Like... 2 weeks ahead of time? Should be coming up perhaps this week.

 

[maoing]

Usually ER is on Wednesday. 2013 Q4 ER was on 02/19, I guess 2014 Q4 ER will be on 02/18.

Is there a date that TM normally announces the date of the ER? Like... 2 weeks ahead of time? Should be coming up perhaps this week.

 

[hobbes]

Is there a date that TM normally announces the date of the ER? Like... 2 weeks ahead of time? Should be coming up perhaps this week.

Average last 6: 18 days (rounded); yahoo estimates ER at Feb 17 - Feb 23, 2015,
18th is a Wednesday, so expect announcement of date end Jan/ beginning of Feb.;
so no, probably not this week yet, most likely week after next.

See Tesla - Press Releases :

November 5, 2014 Tesla Releases Third Quarter 2014 Financial Result
October 21, 2014 Tesla Announces Release Date for Third Quarter Financial Results
15 days

July 31, 2014 Tesla Releases Second Quarter 2014 Financial Results
July 17, 2014 Tesla Announces Release Date for Second Quarter Financial Results
14 days

May 7, 2014 Tesla Releases First Quarter 2014 Financial Results
April 18, 2014 Tesla Motors Announces Date for First Quarter 2014 Financial Results
19 days

February 19, 2014 Tesla Releases Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2013 Financial Results
January 29, 2014 Tesla Motors Announces Date for Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2013 Financial Results
21 days

November 5, 2013 Tesla Motors Releases Third Quarter 2013 Financial Results
October 17, 2013 Tesla Motors Announces Date for Third Quarter 2013 Financial Results
19 days

August 7, 2013 Tesla Motors Releases Second Quarter 2013 Financial Results
July 16, 2013 Tesla Motors Announces Date for Second Quarter 2013 Financial Results
22 days

...

 

[Cattledog]

A Model X reveal party in the next several weeks is being rumored on the Model X thread. If this is true and not rumor it should certainly have an impact on the short term price - most likely a run up in anticipation, who knows what after reveal.

Model X Launch Party

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Yesterday a standard production Tesla Model S P85D set a new 1/4 Mile World Record at Palm Beach International Reaceway (video) demonstrating Tesla's latest advances of a high performance electric propulsion powertrain are world leading technology.

The Tesla’s run was an 11.6 @ 114.6 MPH 1/4 mile with a 1.65 60′ time. 0-60 MPH was 3.1 seconds.

Model S P85D is now officially the quickest and fastest production electric car (verified by NEDRA)!

Here is some first media coverage of yesterdays event:
- InsideEVs
- StreetCarDrags

Here's the official time slip from yesterdays race at Palm Beach International Raceway.

 

[Causalien]

LOL MLK day. Got all my if...else trades setup for nothing.

This is happening waaay too often when everyday is Friday.

 

[uselesslogin]

A Model X reveal party in the next several weeks is being rumored on the Model X thread. If this is true and not rumor it should certainly have an impact on the short term price - most likely a run up in anticipation, who knows what after reveal.

Model X Launch Party

Let me just add to this that the poster who has a "source" has only one post which is the post starting the rumor.

 

[jhm]

A Model X reveal party in the next several weeks is being rumored on the Model X thread. If this is true and not rumor it should certainly have an impact on the short term price - most likely a run up in anticipation, who knows what after reveal.

Model X Launch Party

I know all of us would like to see this come quickly, but I wonder if there is any benefit to having such a party before Tesla is able to start building out orders. If Tesla is going to start building Model X in say July, why would they want to have a party and start taking orders prior to June? There's no need to build demand for it or to risk disrupting Model S orders until they are ready to pull the trigger.

This is why I can be pretty patient about this. Delivering the Model X is what really matters, everything else about it should be held as close to that time as possible.

 

[MartinAustin]

I think Model X reservation holders deserve at least a few months to mull over the various options they want to pay for.

Isn't there supposed to be a new paint shop coming online early this year? I'm hoping it will yield several new colours beyond the ones we already know - perhaps even, the ability to define your own colour.