Responses to UBS, sort of in order of the points they make...which btw lowered their PT from 220 to 210, which is not really all that significant:
1) Their estimates suggest that >1.5m cars in 2025 is priced in to the current price, and they don't think Tesla will be able to sell that many cars. Honestly, I don't know if Tesla can sell that many cars in 2025 either. But I certainly don't think it's "priced in." If it is, and they're downgrading to 210, which is 75% of today's price, then they must think Tesla will sell 75% of 1.5m cars in 2025 - that's ~1.1m. That's quite a lot of sales.
1a) And they think Tesla's stationary storage production will be greater than the entire market in 2020. This is very unlikely. That market will grow much faster than they think it will.
2) Yes, the much-publicized "$800m in orders" is a ridiculous number. These were not deposits, just expressions of interest. It's silly to count that as real money, current or future. Luckily, nobody is.
2a) Though they estimate that sales will *decrease* over time after "early adopters" run out, not increase. They are wrong on this.
2b) They suggest that new entrants will erode Tesla's early mover advantage on storage. Other entrants will certainly be able to "catch up" quite easily, and surely they will take "share" away from Tesla. But share doesn't matter if the market expands rapidly to accommodate new entrants, which I think is likely to happen.
3) They think Tesla is facing "new competitors." lol. Please, UBS, tell me who these competitors are, and how they're going to negatively affect sales. Even if they existed (they don't), they would aid Tesla, not hurt it. EVs are still not considered "legitimate" and are considered abnormal by much of the populace. The more manufacturers involved, the more normal they get, the higher sales are. And guess who gets the benefit of those sales? The company whose name is synonymous with EVs. More about this point below.
3a) They expect dilution for Tesla to finance new plants to build the 1.5m units that they think Tesla won't be able to sell. So they're trying to use this point against Tesla twice, doesn't make a lot of sense. You either expect dilution or you expect them not to reach that capacity, not both.
4) Getting back to the "competition" point, they elaborate on the challenges of 1.5m vehicles by talking about the "competition" which is coming: there is an "expected" i5 and i7 (hybrids); Audi is "reportedly planning" plug-in Q7 / A8 / CUV and Q6 BEV (apparently they don't know that Audi has "planned" to make an EV for about 8 years now and has made zero progress, I do not believe a single thing that company says about EVs, and nobody should pay them any heed until they actually execute, because so far they're showing themselves to be a bunch of incompetent liars); Mercedes is "reportedly working on" a few models; and Porsche is "weighing" some models. Note that none of these are even close to real cars or real plans. If the only competition for Tesla is imaginary, then I'm not too concerned about it.
4a) They also think these other manufacturers "won't cede share easily." Interesting, given that Tesla has taken share in the large luxury segment quite easily. Tesla currently sells a bit more large luxury cars than most brands, in the US anyway. UBS picks Porsche (a brand Tesla is currently outselling in the large luxury market) as an example of a brand Tesla can't outsell, but also recall that Porsche does not have a 35k model. They also pick Lexus (another brand Tesla is outselling in the large luxury market) as a brand Tesla can't outsell. Interestingly, you can actually add up Panamera and LS sales and Tesla *still* outsells them. Put together.
In fact, Tesla sells more than the BMW 7 series right now in the US, so if we take a full Tesla luxury product line and compare it to BMW's, and suggest that a full Tesla product line could sell similar numbers to BMW, who sell 2m annually worldwide across all models (1.7m excluding MINI), then 1.5m actually looks within reach for Tesla. Again, I'm not sure this will happen, and I do think that 1.5m will be a challenge to reach, but UBS picked manufacturers on the low end of sales rather than the high end. This smacks more of cheerleading than of analysis.