Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[SteveG3]

UBS report is weak, but not as weak as typical bear reports. Commentary on the vehicle business (EV "competition", dilution scare, 25 PE in 2025 timeframe, comparisons to sizes of luxury makers) is a bunch of rubbish, but not as easily transparent to casual observers as typical bear gibberish. If any one wants, I'll go into detail on why any of those points is rubbish (not trying to imply anyone here is a casual observer). I disagree with UBS' assessment of the stationary storage business, but I do think the note serves as a reminder that there is a reasonable chance we hit a period of lowered confidence in demand, even if unwarranted, re TE. There's the misdirection by many to try to focus on PowerWall rather than PowerPack, and within the bubble of that misdirection, I think UBS may be correct that PowerWall demand can't match initial levels over the near term. Of course, it's really about PowerPack... but the temporary risk is that the large businesses and utilities with orders are doing pilot projects, and there will be something of a "wait and see fatigue" among stock market participants as it will probably be a year or so before we see pilot projects turn to large orders. I get that there are those here that understand the underlying reasons for demand and probability for success better than "the street", but I don't think that will change the "show me" factor. What could change this sooner than a year is if Tesla continues to announce PowerPack pilot program sales that beat expectations during these quarterly updates.

All said and done, I think this report is a -$5 impact on the stock, traders just piling on this morning's down move. Traders piling on goes both ways like the wind... so it will be erased easily. I now see TSLA trading down $5 from where I saw it last night. This means to me the current price is at $275 +/-$15. As others have pointed out, we may well see a bullish analyst report, or a few at any time. Bullish reports could reverse this -$5 today, or more than reverse it, and between Friday's announcement, and potential earnings preview reports, such reports in the next two weeks are pretty likely.

 

[sahanim]

Cramer -- Tesla's (TSLA) Stock Downgrade Has No Merit - TheStreet

Lol

 

[FredTMC]

Cramer -- Tesla's (TSLA) Stock Downgrade Has No Merit - TheStreet

Lol

Cramer spoke the truth. Interesting to see him defend Tesla against "Analyst FUD"

 

[hockeythug]

Cramer -- Tesla's (TSLA) Stock Downgrade Has No Merit - TheStreet

Lol

Video:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000399297

 

[SteveG3]

Cramer spoke the truth. Interesting to see him defend Tesla against "Analyst FUD"

Lols, he's not defending Tesla, he's using the UBS report to repeat his BS campaign to try to discredit Tesla by portraying it as if it is a "cult" stock, that analysts are giving a "free pass" to, and to repeat his FUD to attempt to mislead people to believe that it's meaningless to look at 2020 or 2025. This is all he talks about in the video. I don't think he believes any of what he's saying on any of this.

 

[Drax7]

Based on 2025 estimates its ludicrous to downgrade.
Maybe by then the new ludicrous will be 3g .

Within the next year we should be looking at 100,000 vehicles sale rate and at a 10% net operating margin,
thats equates with at least a $50 billion mkt cap.

 

[FluxCap]

A fairly conservative trader I follow just posted that he agrees with Cramer that UBS verbage is "valueless" and their analysis is flawed in fundamental ways. He bought a significant amount of August 7th 310 calls on thesis that this temporary dip is baseless and provides a rare opportunity to reload going into ER.

This is not a trade recommendation, just an observation. Happy trading folks.

 

[Causalien]

Based on 2025 estimates its ludicrous to downgrade.
Maybe by then the new ludicrous will be 3g .

Within the next year we should be looking at 100,000 vehicles sale rate and at a 10% net operating margin,
thats equates with at least a $50 billion mkt cap.

Loved this. Gap's gonna be closed.

In the beginning, analyst attacks short term stuff and Elon promised long term moon. Nowadays, Analyst attack the moon and Elon's magic hat produces the speed demon.

Times has changed so much. I am just bitter these analysts who've never got Tesla right before continues to have such an influence on Tesla. If only I get such powers, I'd point out. Paypal at $50bil and tesla at only $30. Go attack paypal as the undeserving company that it is.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

A fairly conservative trader I follow just posted that he agrees with Cramer that UBS verbage is "valueless" and their analysis is flawed in fundamental ways. He bought a significant amount of August 7th 310 calls on thesis that this temporary dip is baseless and provides a rare opportunity to reload going into ER.

This is not a trade recommendation, just an observation. Happy trading folks.

Loved this. Gap's gonna be closed.

In the beginning, analyst attacks short term stuff and Elon promised long term moon. Nowadays, Analyst attack the moon and Elon's magic hat produces the speed demon.

Times has changed so much. I am just bitter these analysts who've never got Tesla right before continues to have such an influence on Tesla. If only I get such powers, I'd point out. Paypal at $50bil and tesla at only $30. Go attack paypal as the undeserving company that it is.

Agree all around. I went big with the Sep $300s. Bought some shorter term stuff in smaller quantity as well. Volume is dying off, so I think we are about to find out if this was really dumb or smart.

 

[Causalien]

Wait a sec. He's actually a bull. 1.5mil by 2020 is in 5 years. That's more than a 50% per year growth... It's 100% growth!!!!

 

[jhm]

Lols, he's not defending Tesla, he's using the UBS report to repeat his BS campaign to try to discredit Tesla by portraying it as if it is a "cult" stock, that analysts are giving a "free pass" to, and to repeat his FUD to attempt to mislead people to believe that it's meaningless to look at 2020 or 2025. This is all he talks about in the video. I don't think he believes any of what he's saying on any of this.

This is reassuring. For a moment there I was afraid that Cramer might start pumping Tesla. That would definitely be a run for the hills moment for most of us.

 

[uselesslogin]

Looking at other threads it seems there is nowhere near the buzz over the '70' model than the '70D' and same goes for P90L vs. P85D. Lots of talk about upgrading to the P85L. Lots of talk about how cool it is. But no tracking threads popped up for new models. The tracking spreadsheet has one '70' and no 'P90L.' The change is probably just too small for that and P85D owners won't be trading up to P90L since they can pay only $6.6k or so to get the ludicrous upgrade. Deliveries are faster too. If you ask me we are starting to move towards 'demand constrained' but with the Model X launch around the corner I'm not worried about it. Heck, the Model X launch might be the reason why the orders are growing more slowly. More people are probably waiting to see the X first.

Edit - certainly I still expect more deliveries in Q3 vs. Q2. I'm just thinking Model S growth will be slowing here while Model X explodes onto the scene.

 

[Bobbyducati]

next day or two should be interesting. hoping the bottom has been reached. still think we hit ATH very soon. could use a positive note from someone to put out the UBS flame.

 

[DarrenHD]

Edit - certainly I still expect more deliveries in Q3 vs. Q2. I'm just thinking Model S growth will be slowing here while Model X explodes onto the scene.

Agreed, Model X will bring in a whole new segment: Female buyers and well-to-do families. Even though the Model S can fit 7 people, the Model X is more akin to what a family would use. I expect Model X will sell very well. I'm just hoping those falcon wing doors are rock solid and don't have issues.

 

[AlMc]

I would not count on model X to have any significant impact on delivery numbers in Q3. If there is a Founder's series you may see those and a few early Sigs. Any Q3 over Q2 growth in delivery numbers will come from the S. Based on a comment at the TMConnect IIRC line #2 is being set up initially to produce the X while line #1 continues to produce the S. Line #1 'appears' to be at maximum capacity putting out 1,200 cars/week. Twelve weeks at 1,200 cars is 14,400 produced. Now TM may choose to empty the pipeline and have another end of the quarter push to deliver 15K cars in Q3 but they have said that they have decided not to do this.

Certainly if line #2 is up and running and TM decides to push out some Ss on it during Q3 then the delivery numbers could be significantly better.

Exciting, but stressful times for 'traders'. Long term investors have little to fear as in 6 months Q3/the quality of the X launch will be forgotten.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Looking like the very illogical report by UBS, may have created a perfect cup and handle. Let's see what happens tomorrow. How could any intelligent analyst sincerely believe Tesla will only sell 200,000 - 300,000 vehicles in 2020?

Tesla is the only company with a competitive Electric Vehicle (That is proven to be the safest vehicle on the road and competes with $500,000 - $5 million vehicles.). There are mandates being put in place that require states and countries to have a certain percent of their fleet be Electric Vehicles by 2020. Would any sane person buy a Chevy Bolt over a Tesla? No. Has GM ever produced a vehicle that was competitive against a $500,000 - $5 million vehicle? No.

1.5 million vehicles is barely 1.5% of global automobile sales. It's very hard to see how Tesla won't easily surpass this.

 

[hockeythug]

Is IBM really taking down the entire market? If so, get ready for more hard times. Their share buyback program is the only thing keeping them alive.

 

[Papafox]

It makes sense for 70D to be a much bigger deal than 70 because the 70D brought desirable range, supercharging, and all-wheel drive to buyers at an attractive price point. It was a breakthrough package. Nonetheless, the 70 will have its place in warmer climates where fear of snow driving is no big concern. You get better acceleration than the 60, a full-sized frunk, and save $5,000. Here in Hawaii the new 70 will be quite popular, and it pulls in buyers who otherwise feel that the 70D is just a bit too expensive. Remember, too, that the rear-wheel drive Teslas do fine in snow. I don't see the 70 being the struggling model that the 60 was. As for the 2.8 second P85D upgrades, just wait until the road test and drag race vs. Ferrari videos start showing up.

Looking at other threads it seems there is nowhere near the buzz over the '70' model than the '70D' and same goes for P90L vs. P85D. Lots of talk about upgrading to the P85L. Lots of talk about how cool it is. But no tracking threads popped up for new models. The tracking spreadsheet has one '70' and no 'P90L.' The change is probably just too small for that and P85D owners won't be trading up to P90L since they can pay only $6.6k or so to get the ludicrous upgrade. Deliveries are faster too. If you ask me we are starting to move towards 'demand constrained' but with the Model X launch around the corner I'm not worried about it. Heck, the Model X launch might be the reason why the orders are growing more slowly. More people are probably waiting to see the X first.

Edit - certainly I still expect more deliveries in Q3 vs. Q2. I'm just thinking Model S growth will be slowing here while Model X explodes onto the scene.

 

[RubberToe]

How could any intelligent analyst sincerely believe Tesla will only sell 200,000 - 300,000 vehicles in 2020?

Analysts by and large are not prepared for paradigm shifts. It's hard to factor in how much a true disruptor in an industry can change the game so rapidly (see AAPL). Back when TSLA was a $25 stock, how many analysts were predicting it would be 10x? Andrea James is one of the few who gets it, and she figured it out pretty early.

RT

 

[aznt1217]

Analysts by and large are not prepared for paradigm shifts. It's hard to factor in how much a true disruptor in an industry can change the game so rapidly (see AAPL). Back when TSLA was a $25 stock, how many analysts were predicting it would be 10x? Andrea James is one of the few who gets it, and she figured it out pretty early.

RT

He's been covering Autos, Auto Dealers, and Parts manufacturers for 10 years and his only other job prior to was an accountant at Deloitte. Probably has tunnel vision most of these guys do that's why they aren't making product.