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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Yo homie.
Vais à la playa del Tariffa. Es increíble.
Should be soon. 8 ball's prediction no longer manifest instantaneously the next day anymore. But first, I need to get a chair, a computer and a monitor.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Not sure if this should be in the technical analysis or short term thread. Looking at the 1 year chart, do we now have a cup and handle completely formed?
Chickenlittle
Banned
Thanks for the mention
i am still using the tactic but have also done options that are out of the money. Sold all of those when it failed to stick the 290 previous levels and then re bought them back when stock dropped below 200. Ready to start selling those soon. Will use proceeds to convert my deep in the money calls later.
Glad your close to retirement. I strongly recommend it
jhm
Well-Known Member
Thanks for the mention, and congrats on huge progress toward funding your retirement.
I'd also point out that from my BFPT methodology, we are crossing the third quartile at $286.25. So as we move into the fourth quartile for bullish sentiment, it may make sense to lighten exposure. However, the median sentiment12-month BFPT is $341. So long as we do not enter into bearish sentiment along the way, that's not a bad return.
The problem with listing people to thank is that I inevitably think of about a dozen more of you folks who should have been on this list, and if I added your names it would just make the other obvious omissions that much more apparent.
Of course we all have Elon Musk to thank, especially. I mean, here's this billionaire who's working like a college student during final's week, camped out sometimes in the Fremont factory just to ensure that he's on top of any glitches that pop up.
My overriding strategy has been to use senseless dips to effectively increase my shares owned, once the deep in the money leaps are converted back to shares. Of course it is possible to get burned in this tactic if there's a large and long-lasting macro event or if TSLA skates onto thin ice, but now that I am closer to my investment goals I will be somewhat more conservative in how I convert shares to leaps and shorter calls in the future. I expect to be a long-term investor in TSLA, but with reasonable de-risking as success grows.
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Don't forget us young farts. Elon will let me pay off my mortgage well before age 30
crossed the 70% paid off mark with some profit taking before the big dip earlier this week. I'm of course saddened by all the Tesla money funneled into the mortgage as I would have had enough to pay off the mortgage and then some with more patience on more shares!I'm extremely optimistic with everything at this point, as long as China and PR don't end up souring the macro I'm feeling like an Apple-style rise these next few years.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Chickenlittle
Banned
i suspect that while some are adding to their short position that most would like to trim it. i suspect a not so slow melt up into earnings. of course, the design studio could make appearance before report. i read somewhere that someone suggested sig reservations could be given access to design studio before others but i doubt that would be done. funny but usually FUD arguments appear immediately after announcements but not with this one. question whether that community was stunned by announcement on July 17th.
fwiw, to me the TSLA stock price is now $280 +/-$15. Whether it closes at $277 or $286 tomorrow, $271 or $289 Friday, to me, it's still the same price as it is right now.
I think the next potential catalysts that can change the stock price are 1) breaking the all-time high and traders with complete indifference to Tesla and it's fundamentals jumping on the action to push it to $300 +/-$10 (a short term action devoid of any sustained meaning), 2) earnings call... I think about 50% likely to be positive, 30% neutral, 20% negative... so best odds flat or positive, 3) opening of design studio, which at current pricing I don't think is quite fully priced in, so fairly likely to take us above $280 +/-$15 if events 1) or 2) have not already done so.
I think the next potential catalysts that can change the stock price are 1) breaking the all-time high and traders with complete indifference to Tesla and it's fundamentals jumping on the action to push it to $300 +/-$10 (a short term action devoid of any sustained meaning), 2) earnings call... I think about 50% likely to be positive, 30% neutral, 20% negative... so best odds flat or positive, 3) opening of design studio, which at current pricing I don't think is quite fully priced in, so fairly likely to take us above $280 +/-$15 if events 1) or 2) have not already done so.
Put simply: I have no freekin' clue. I can make a legitimate case either way. I was happily shocked to see 286 peak with 282 close. I agree with Steve about the price action at this point. I don't believe we see the design studio before ER/CC. I see the potential for a great Q2ER that might be mitigated by any mention of delaying the X and/or lowering deliver guidance for the year.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I think we were all stunned. But I do think the shorts were put on notice. Design studio can be released any freakin day. And then ludicrous mode can pounce any day without warning. So if shorts think they can run the show, they've got another thing coming. Musk can mess with them just because he can. So now we've got delivery numbers a few days after each quarter, quarterly upgrades to software, annual upgrades to batteries, frequent new product offering, and then there is the ludicrous stuff that no one is asking for or expecting. So all this is enough to jangle your nerves if you've got debt payable in Tesla shares.
sahanim
Member
Even thought we saw unwarranted drop between 280 to 255 a good chunk of it had to do with macro economics I dont think it's right to equate the recent gains as a counterbalance to us falling earlier in the last 2 weeks.
i think the recent rise in SCTY, GOOG, NFLX and other tech might be helping TSLA.
Im also not convinced we've seen the last of the CHINA and Greece sagas.
someone care to shed some light to this confused investor as im having a hard time figuring out what's going on?
i think the recent rise in SCTY, GOOG, NFLX and other tech might be helping TSLA.
Im also not convinced we've seen the last of the CHINA and Greece sagas.
someone care to shed some light to this confused investor as im having a hard time figuring out what's going on?
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
#1. Growth stocks are what people want to own for the next 3 years and they are willing to pay up for it. #2. Tesla is trading on technicals. A close over ATH means Fibonacci extentions into mid 300s. #3. There is a large base of long term Tesla holders who do not sell every time the market would like you to be scared out of the position. #4. For many of us, Tesla is our #1 best idea. I would love to have a page on here where we all agree on 2 stocks and promote them/discuss them just like TSLA.
That's what What other cool tech stock to consider? is for. There have been some great calls there in the past year.
I thought that was what the scty thread was for, although the other stock supported there is tsla so I guess that does not quite fit the bill.
Pre-market just opened and volume is currently around 1,500 shares traded but TSLA is down $5.27 to 276.99 from yesterday's close of 282.26.
What's going on all of a sudden? Analyst downgrade or profit taking? I don't see any news (yet) that's forcing this causing this drop this early.
Looks like reaching new ATH will take a little longer.
What's going on all of a sudden? Analyst downgrade or profit taking? I don't see any news (yet) that's forcing this causing this drop this early.
Looks like reaching new ATH will take a little longer.
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