Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Ugliest1]

But he also said the configurator would probably open in 3 months. 5 more days and if it doesn't happen and we can add it too to the growing list of 'things Elon has been too optimistic about'.

Yep, that's exactly what is so amazing to me. How much Tesla gets away with in missed promises, misleiding presentations and other shady shenigans without any material impact on the stock price. I certainly gained from it too but each time I am wondering, will the ride keep riding or should I get out because it will catch up with them?

I'm with @Krugerrand - I think your definition of "probably" is "probably" closer to "a promise" than my understanding of the word.

Timelines in software development, construction, court case resolutions, designing and building something the world has never seen... they are highly unpredictable. @Johan nailed it IMHO - Elon is highly optimistic, and uses that to drive goals. I find his candour and honesty quite refreshing - he answers tough questions as he sees and there's no scripted lawyer or handler pulling his strings. Maybe they try to yell at him after, I don't know. But after watching countless videos of him, and seeing results, and including the various delays and changed deadlines etc, I truly believe he's an honest, driven guy. What he, his management team, and his worldwide staff are doing is (understatement of the century) not easy.

@bsd mentioned the Good/Fast/Cheap triangle, as we know the "Fast" part of that is only in both of Tesla's cars' performance. But I'd rather have Good than the alternative.

"Shady"... well, just no. Except for two web pages: Autopilot, and purchase price (including incentives and gas savings). Those two I'm not happy about. And they seem to me to be opposite of all the other ways that Tesla behaves. It's a conundrum.

 

[uselesslogin]

Does anyone know for sure it is this Sunday?

The only schedule I could find is this. It doesn't mention Musk.

60 Minutes TV Listings | TVGuide.com

Hey all, the link is up and appears not to be blocked by country:
Elon Musk | 60 Minutes | 9Jumpin

 

[jhm]

Well, flat until Model 3

I share your optimism, but the scale of the problem for utilities is bigger than the demand that EVs can create. Consider that 1 GW of solar is enough to power 350,000 EVs. In 2017 the amount of distributed solar just within the US could be about 6 GW. So over 2 million EVs would need to be added to the US fleet in 2017 alone to absorb the extra capacity. The world does not have enough gigafactory capacity in 2017 to build 2 million cars. So the utilities are just going to have to take it on the chin. That said, the utilities really should be doing everything the possibly can to hasten the age of electric vehicles.

 

[Johan]

I share your optimism, but the scale of the problem for utilities is bigger than the demand that EVs can create. Consider that 1 GW of solar is enough to power 350,000 EVs. In 2017 the amount of distributed solar just within the US could be about 6 GW. So over 2 million EVs would need to be added to the US fleet in 2017 alone to absorb the extra capacity. The world does not have enough gigafactory capacity in 2017 to build 2 million cars. So the utilities are just going to have to take it on the chin. That said, the utilities really should be doing everything the possibly can to hasten the age of electric vehicles.

Though this is getting to be a bit off topic for the TSLA short term thread, one thing keeps occurring to me: As solar deployment accelerates possibly together with further huge cost reductions (thanks to improved technology and economies of scale) electricity could be become so abundant and cheap that it suddenly makes sense to do things using electricity that makes no sense at all as of today. I'm thinking for example about very large scale desalination, perhaps technologies being developed for carbon capture and/or carbon sequestration that are energy dependent and possibly other "large scale earth altering technologies" (fixing ocean acidification somehow or other such things).

 

[jhm]

This is Tesla's plan for a cheaper car - Fortune

Not sure if this has been posted, but it has some good information on the battery race. Also it is nice to see Jeff Dahn field questions like thus to the press.

- - - Updated - - -

Though this is getting to be a bit off topic for the TSLA short term thread, one thing keeps occurring to me: As solar deployment accelerates possibly together with further huge cost reductions (thanks to improved technology and economies of scale) electricity could be become so abundant and cheap that it suddenly makes sense to do things using electricity that makes no sense at all as of today. I'm thinking for example about very large scale desalination, perhaps technologies being developed for carbon capture and/or carbon sequestration that are energy dependent and possibly other "large scale earth altering technologies" (fixing ocean acidification somehow or other such things).

To be brief, I agree, but massive fossil generation assets will have to be written off beforehand. Decades off.

 

[CyberDutchie]

@Al, I would expect truck shipping for MX Sigs & other low reservation holders then a gradual transition to rail, these folks have waited long enough.

I expect there are several thousand early reservation holders in the Bay Area alone who would all be taking delivery of their cars at the factory in Fremont.

 

[AlMc]

I expect there are several thousand early reservation holders in the Bay Area alone who would all be taking delivery of their cars at the factory in Fremont.

I have a good friend who owns a long haul trucking company. I might pay him to go get mine and bring it back to the east coast asap! :wink:

 

[jhm]

For 3 months in 2015, Tesla did something we've almost never seen before - Yahoo Finance
I think it is premature to call an end for volatility for TSLA, but this is an interesting thought peice.

 

[AlMc]

For 3 months in 2015, Tesla did something we've almost never seen before - Yahoo Finance
I think it is premature to call an end for volatility for TSLA, but this is an interesting thought peice.

Yes. I thought the same thing. With all the shirt interest and a few more milestones in the foreseeable future I believe we have volatility until the model 3 sales are in the hundreds of thousands and production at Fremont and the GF can support at least 500 thousand units per year.

 

[uselesslogin]

For 3 months in 2015, Tesla did something we've almost never seen before - Yahoo Finance
I think it is premature to call an end for volatility for TSLA, but this is an interesting thought peice.

I think it is pretty crazy to call 40% growth in 4 months "boring" as well. If that is boring I'll have more of that please. Please bore me out of my mind.

 

[Causalien]

In the startup world, Gogoro is copying TSLA's business model for electric scooters:
Gogoro - Introducing the world's first and only Smartscooterâ„¢

This is one of the benefit of TSLA making the LI battery cheaper from scale. Now it is making it economical for other sectors of the economy to consider a pure the electric battery alternative.

By the way, anyone have a way to get into funding round for gogoro, let me know.

 

[jhm]

I think it is pretty crazy to call 40% growth in 4 months "boring" as well. If that is boring I'll have more of that please. Please bore me out of my mind.

The most boring path to $700B market cap in 2025 is a gain of 0.50% each week. Oh the monotonous drudgery!

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Either paypal should be worth less than $35 bil or TSLA should be worth more than $50 bil. I think that is the logic behind $500. Step back and look at it from the stand point of the human race. Is paypal more important to the advancement of human kind or TSLA?

EPS valuation was nice and dandy for old school analysis for people who just want to extract money. Which is the majority of the financial sector. It is also from an old school of thought where family want to accumulate money for several generations.

I think a recent phenomena is the realization that you cannot bring those money to your death. Which is why Melinda and Gates foundation got created. You might as well donate the wealth that's sitting in your bank account doing nothing for the betterment of mankind instead of creating spoiled and entitled brats.

For Technology company and people who invest from non-financial stand point (for the advancement of tech and human kind), I believe a new metric needs to be introduce to measure a company. It should be called Innovation Per Share. IPS. Company who reinvest cash into R&D will have a high IPS while companies who pay out to shareholders will naturally have a low IPS.

Couldn't help but think about this post as I watched this TED presentation by legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones. Wall Street wants immediate profits, Elon has something different in store.


Paul Tudor Jones II: Why we need to rethink capitalism - YouTube

He is coming out with a "Just Index" and I think Tesla will be on the top. http://www.justcapital.com

beThis yeawill be conducting a national survey to find out how America defines just corporate behavior. We will track – in an unbiased and transparent way - the top 1000 companies in the country to see how they rank against America’s definition of just. We’re calling it the JUSTIndex. And we will make all results available to you, the public. Why? Simple. By shining a light on what it means to be just, we think we can define, inspire and reward more just behavior, not only in companies, but in investors, consumers, all of us .

 

[30seconds]

This is Tesla's plan for a cheaper car - Fortune

Not sure if this has been posted, but it has some good information on the battery race. Also it is nice to see Jeff Dahn field questions like thus to the press.

- - - Updated - - -



To be brief, I agree, but massive fossil generation assets will have to be written off beforehand. Decades off.

I wonder where most fossil generation assets are in their depreciation timelines. I would guess that most plants have a 40 year accounting life and on average most are about 50% along (continued investments would stretch out lifetimes). Probably the most vulnerable are nat gas peaker plants built in the last 20 years as these may really feel impact of solar + battery. Then again they run at highest margin so may actually have paid for themselves + profit by this point.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Hey serious question, did Tesla raise prices? A month ago I thought the 70D was 75K base, but now the S70 looks like it's 75K base with no options. Let me know if I'm just seeing things.

 

[mdemetri]

Hey serious question, did Tesla raise prices? A month ago I thought the 70D was 75K base, but now the S70 looks like it's 75K base with no options. Let me know if I'm just seeing things.

I still see 70K for the base 70S.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Oh nevermind, sorry I must have made a mistake. I was playing around with the max range and performance, and I think it selected 4.5K wheels. I see the 70 now.

 

[FANGO]

The only person that matters is the CEO as his personality will eventually permeates the whole company.

Could not possibly disagree more with this sentence.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Some press mentions about the new roadster project (like here).
Honestly I wonder what 0-60mi/hr time this roadster will clock (quicker than 2.8sec?) at the time it is released in a couple of years.
Picture below is from a concept design by Carwow.

BTW Tesla now taking reservations for Model X in Australia.
Deliveries in Australia to begin in Q3 next year (link: TheMotorReport).

BTW post #10000-1 next

 

[jhm]

I wonder where most fossil generation assets are in their depreciation timelines. I would guess that most plants have a 40 year accounting life and on average most are about 50% along (continued investments would stretch out lifetimes). Probably the most vulnerable are nat gas peaker plants built in the last 20 years as these may really feel impact of solar + battery. Then again they run at highest margin so may actually have paid for themselves + profit by this point.

That's for the utilities to manage. The critical question is how much revenue these assets can generate over the next 30 years. Every GW of distributed solar installed knocks out about 1.4 TWh of net demand for utilities in perpetuity. Utilizatiin falls and revenue per MWh falls. If gross income from generation drops below depreciation, then utilities are in serious trouble. If utilities start missing payments on debt, then bond investors are in trouble. So the question is how quickly can distributed solar penetrate this market. If utilities do not lower retail rates, they will accelerate the transition.