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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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There's important psychology involved here. Three times we have seen TSLA exceed $280, and three times it has quickly plummeted: last year after ATH, right before the Greece and China troubles, and on Tuesday following the UBS hit piece. The subliminal message being delivered here is that TSLA is reaching the danger zone when it approaches 280, so be ready to sell.
On the other hand, someone like Longboard comes along and says maybe 500 before the end of the year, and the price of 280 doesn't look like such a nosebleeding high number any more. This is a very pleasant counterweight to the very calculated UBS piece.
Its only significance is that it may be a hint of a Model X delay, or a slower than anticipated Model X ramp. And in the short term, those are pretty big significant factors.
I'm a huge bull on Tesla but I also do want to be realistic and pragmatic about Musk hitting timeline goals.
I'm wondering if near ATH is where we'll see a short squeeze, given some big impetus (really strong ER combined with strong MX news or perfect Model X launch followed by exceptional Q3 ER later). My profit taking around that level will likely be minimal unless poor macro like China or PR worries resurface.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
A few thoughts on this:
(1) The presence or absence of the Model X design studio is going to have some effect on the short term price movements. Elon gave an approximate date and like it or not, market participants will notice if that date isn't met. Of course it doesn't matter in the long run, but this may have implications for traders or those holding options contracts.
(2) Elon's credibility with regards to specific deadlines is frankly not very good, and even he acknowledges that punctuality is an issue for him. I'm not sure that I believe the "2 months" estimate, although I do believe that Tesla will do their best to deliver. Model X will be nearly 2 years late at this point.
(3) The vagueness of everything is what is causing TSLA to swing wildly in price. Clear the uncertainty, and FUD nonsense like the UBS hit piece will stop screwing with share prices.
Basically, it's time for Tesla to prove that they aren't a "one hit wonder", and to wipe the floor with the people who are trying to manipulate the share price downwards.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I have spoken here several times of a coming electric generation glut, but never did I imagine that peak utility generation had already come. Indeed total utility generating capacity has begun to happen, and the peak may well have been February 2015. Non-utility solar may grow by 3 GW this year in the US and keep doubling every couple of years, meanwhile total demand for electricity is flat. Ergo, utility generating capacity enters perpetual decline.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/29044-SolarCity-(SCTY)/page176?p=1084784&viewfull=1#post1084784
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/29044-SolarCity-(SCTY)/page176?p=1084784&viewfull=1#post1084784
jhm
Well-Known Member
The first two points of the $500 Longboard thesis are momentum and short squeeze. While this may in fact trigger a $500 price, a price that high will not be long lived. My BFPT methodology based on Musk long view of $700B shows that $500 is year is not consistent with both the long view and the last two years of training. Indeed any price above $325 this year, in my view, is not sustainable.
If we were to reach $500 this year, it would be prudent to sell immediately or watch half the price evaporate as we revisit prices below $260. This may be happy times for traders, but it could prove traumatic for long-term investors. $320 would be great. Beyond that we're looking for troubble.
I also think that beyond $320 we'll hear Musk talking the price down again.
Just to be clear: I will be very happy with $325 by December 31, 2015. I don't see $500 until either the model 3 reservation platform opens and is immediately overwhelmed by demand OR first model 3 start to be produced. So, at best late 2016, but more likely not until 2017 at the earliest.
I agree $325+ this year may be unsustainable. If we see anything north of $325 this year I will probably trim my exposure by 50%.
This thread is starting to sound like it did when tsla exploded up to about 60-80 a share and all of us "seasoned tsla investors" knew it was getting ahead of itself. I think this was where I dumped like 95 percent of my options. Right before it exploded up again lol.
Instead of talking out down. What if Elon said it's justified and were doing a capital raise (at 500 a share) to double the size of the gigafactory because stationary storage is so big.
And. ... money to start our European gigafactory as well. (It's fun speaking for Elon)
Due to margin calls I am not currently invested in Tesla but i am going to try and pick up some high strike leaps.
I think(hope) the X doors and seats deliver.
Also- everyone knows about Elons previous delays. I don't think a very short delay here would matter very much.
A long delay won't matter for shareholders or leap holders if the X lives up to potential.
Does anybody have some hard numbers to sway this one way or the other? To me the whole thing is starting to look like everything we know about is already priced in, a reasonable level of execution assumed: X, GF, M3, Power. How would that be not realistic to expect overall flat-ish, with some wild swings thrown in, stock price for the next 2 years?
Personally I think the dollar-voting majority is, mildly put, severely underestimating the will to achieve and overcome the obstacles. Which would suggest substantial upside potential when the reality of financial success would set in. But that's just my perception, maybe more people are in on their motto than I give credit for.
Personally I think the dollar-voting majority is, mildly put, severely underestimating the will to achieve and overcome the obstacles. Which would suggest substantial upside potential when the reality of financial success would set in. But that's just my perception, maybe more people are in on their motto than I give credit for.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Either paypal should be worth less than $35 bil or TSLA should be worth more than $50 bil. I think that is the logic behind $500. Step back and look at it from the stand point of the human race. Is paypal more important to the advancement of human kind or TSLA?
EPS valuation was nice and dandy for old school analysis for people who just want to extract money. Which is the majority of the financial sector. It is also from an old school of thought where family want to accumulate money for several generations.
I think a recent phenomena is the realization that you cannot bring those money to your death. Which is why Melinda and Gates foundation got created. You might as well donate the wealth that's sitting in your bank account doing nothing for the betterment of mankind instead of creating spoiled and entitled brats.
For Technology company and people who invest from non-financial stand point (for the advancement of tech and human kind), I believe a new metric needs to be introduce to measure a company. It should be called Innovation Per Share. IPS. Company who reinvest cash into R&D will have a high IPS while companies who pay out to shareholders will naturally have a low IPS.
: How does one watch this show from the land down under from Europe or the USA? TIA
Just a question
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I agree with this a lot.
By NOT primarily focusing on how to make the most profit in the short term, but rather by looking at cash flow, revenue and ultimately profit as a TOOL to achieve ACTUAL and IMPORTANT goals (betterment of the human condition, saving earth, creating a superior system of transportation etc.). This is called creating VALUE. Money in itself has no intrinsic value, it's what you can create using money (or buy) that assigns it value.
But to come full circle: our financial system recognizes this and will assign VALUE to the company accordingly, which can be once again turned in to money fir us long shareholders.
It's almost philosophical: by NOT focusing on getting the money, but rather "doing the right thing", you end up getting the money as a bonus. Very Zen.
RationalOptimist
Member
Longboard's original piece back in early 2013 is one of the main reasons I piled into TSLA, that and actually driving a model S. They argued for a squeeze to $200 within 2 years. Every bullet-point in their presentation ended up relevant, insightful. An ecstatic reception for Model X and growing realization of the energy market potential are their two main arguments. These guys are really smart... I have a hunch this report could move the stock monday.
+1
I think it is very important to remember that the stock never went back to $60-80/share. I don't know if we will see something similar next year or what but that is why my strategy has a minimum position size that I know I won't regret if that is all I have after the next leg up.
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Don't forget positive cash flow. The biggest catalyst next year is positive cash flow.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
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I used it to watch Netflix in Spain (they haven't launched here) and worked nicely.
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