They were actually at even a smaller show in Delaware several months ago. Of course I had to go:biggrin:. They were just as you walked in and they were VERY busy. I put on my 'sales cap' and went to work:wink:
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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They were actually at even a smaller show in Delaware several months ago. Of course I had to go:biggrin:. They were just as you walked in and they were VERY busy. I put on my 'sales cap' and went to work:wink:
I don't think there's be anything to stop Tesla from charging for non-supercharger electricity at the sites. No need to give free electricity to cars of competitors who won't shoulder their share of the load. Besides, what a drag it would be to pull into a supercharger site in Germany and find it Leafed or i3ed out.
Did other people read the report in neutral tone? Yes, the outweight rating and $10 PT drop does sound neutral. But AJ looks like one of biggest FUDsters of TSLA now, here is what I extract from digest by Streetinsider.com:
1) Tesla's growth and ambition may expose Tesla to risks investors havenot prepared for.
2) Musk's 'no US GAAP profitability by the year 2020' comments compared toJonas' forecast of Tesla achieving nearly $1.6 billion of US GAAP profit by2020.
3) In any case, for a stock where many untested long-term earnings andgrowth assumptions must be made to value the company, the comments take thetone of forecast uncertainty to entirely new levels."
4) Jonas said Tesla is feeling pressure from 3 different sources: (1)Falling oil price, (2) stronger US dollar and (3) questions about the long-termearnings trajectory.
5) The analyst also notes Tesla has significant transaction exposureto a stronger dollar. If you have not made a negative FX adjustment to your Tesla numbers... youreally should
6) The firm's 4Q volume forecast goes to 9,993 units from 11,165 units,taking full year volume to 31,814 units, or more than 1,000 below thecompany's FY target. This change, along with $20mm of FX headwinds (and lower ATPs) takestheir 4Qgross margin assumption to 28.0% from 29.6% previously.
7) There has been a lot written about how Tesla's advancement of electricmobility can make the internal combustion engine 'obsolete' in just a fewyears. Wefirmly disagree and don't need such an outcome to make Tesla a good investmenttoday.
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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I think Mr. Jonas' report is reasonable. Tesla undoubtedly faces many challenges and uncertainties.
It comes down to whether one believes that Elon and the Tesla team can accomplish their goal of bringing a profitable mass-market BEV to the marketplace.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I have to be honest here: you always seem very down on the stock and skittish about the prospects of the company. While I agree that the short term price trend is somewhat downward due to lack of news, I don't think this has to be constantly posted in a gloomy manner.
Nothing anyone says here is likely to affect share price in any noticeable way.
Krugerrand
Meow
Don't get me wrong, we shouldn't be cheery all the time, but this isn't the article that gives a bad forcast to investors when he makes statements like this:
"We can justify nearly 50% upside to Tesla shares without having to make such an implied bet on breakthroughs in the cost/benefit of electric propulsion."
Leaving this part out on 7). And highlighting firmly disagree seems like someone is trying to change the tone/wording of the report. I don't know, maybe it's ok and I misinterpeted your post.
"We can justify nearly 50% upside to Tesla shares without having to make such an implied bet on breakthroughs in the cost/benefit of electric propulsion."
Leaving this part out on 7). And highlighting firmly disagree seems like someone is trying to change the tone/wording of the report. I don't know, maybe it's ok and I misinterpeted your post.
My take on this:
Elon's no profitability statement may be an attempt to set different market expectations. He did state in the past that he finds dealing with the market like dealing with manic depressive. I agree with him on this market evaluation. Also, Tesla may choose to be non profitable in a strong bull market, which is very forgiving, and use the good times to strengthen Tesla's footprint and product lines.
AJ perhaps expected profitability to happen sooner and hence his comment " In any case, for a stock where many untested long-term earnings and growth assumptions must be made to value the company, the comments take the tone of forecast uncertainty to entirely new levels."
I share all the concerns that AJ raised, especially the effects of USD appreciation and its effects on revenue. I also agree with his views of Tesla's strengths.
jkliu47
Member
Tesla is leasing more space in the Fremont area - are they already running out of space in their Fremont plant?
Tesla leases 300,000-square-foot industrial project in Fremont - Silicon Valley Business Journal
Tesla leases 300,000-square-foot industrial project in Fremont - Silicon Valley Business Journal
maoing, I for one definitely appreciate your updates, especially in the China market threads. You share great information with us here, and please don't stop. I do wonder if perhaps you sometimes get lost a bit in translation, and are "reading into things" a bit excessively? I also know you are not purposely writing FUD to support a short agenda, so hopefully people can stop insinuating that.
Anyway, here is a snippet from today's Jonas report, which I found fairly "blah" and unimportant. As did the market. He simply does not have the power to move the stock he once did, after he went kind of crazy and started disagreeing with himself (literally) a few reports ago. Despite his other blatherings, I think his $280PT and $500 bull case PT being *very* plausible represent a fairly neutral stance from where he was in his last report. Also, remember that news outlets do not post the full article, and post only things they view might be the most linkbait/clickbait worthy controversy. I am a Morgan Stanley client, and so I happen to read these full reports each time. Anyway, here's a quote the news outlets chose to leave out:
sundaymorning
Active Member
I believe the individual was referencing cost parity between the U.S and Euro currency exchange rate, which at the moment suggests $1.16 U.S = 1€ Euro. Parity may or may not reach fruition, even if it does, I suspect it will take a long while before that occurs.
Flux, can you paste the full note from MS? The digest in Vgrin's post does have a lot of negative views for TSLA in short term. TSLA is still in its downtrend, so before the inverse happen, we do need to pay more attention for short term negativity and uncertainty. This is short term thread, actually it doesn't matter bull or bear, ride the trend is the correct choice. Otherwise people in denial mode might lose big fortunate to play against trend. Btw, I'm long TSLA since 2013. But more bearish thinking will help saving fortune in last a few months.
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I guess nobody knows the answer for sure except Elon and TM team until Q4 ER. How much weight of strong dollar, weak Europe economy, slack China demand will affect 2015 guidance? Not only us but also the market has this question and will carry this uncertainty into Q4 ER.
Certainly TM can't afford such large capital expense at this point. Even it's an option China factory should have priority over Europe. Once manufactured in China, then Tesla cars can immediately enjoy all the subsidies, incentives and waive up to 42% duty tax and purchase tax.
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I guess nobody knows the answer for sure except Elon and TM team until Q4 ER. How much weight of strong dollar, weak Europe economy, slack China demand will affect 2015 guidance? Not only us but also the market has this question and will carry this uncertainty into Q4 ER.
Certainly TM can't afford such large capital expense at this point. Even it's an option China factory should have priority over Europe. Once manufactured in China, then Tesla cars can immediately enjoy all the subsidies, incentives and waive up to 42% duty tax and purchase tax.
sundaymorning
Active Member
1. Market anticipates oil going up as stated by OPEC exec.
2. Model X reveal coming soon.
3. European QE will generate more cash flow, profits for European economy, businesses and manufactures; all are primed for higher revenues in 2015 and beyond, effective almost immediately in some industries.
4. 25 million shorts? hmmmmm
2. Model X reveal coming soon.
3. European QE will generate more cash flow, profits for European economy, businesses and manufactures; all are primed for higher revenues in 2015 and beyond, effective almost immediately in some industries.
4. 25 million shorts? hmmmmm
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Maoing doesn't sound like a FUDster. I used to be cautious like that. It really helped in my stock picking and not making a mistake because if a CEO's charismatic speech. That is until TSLA where I took a leap of faith before Elon became Charismatic.
Adam jonas's report is pretty neutral and realistic. If a statement irks you, it might be because there is some truth in it.
Then again, whatever people says doesn't matter. It is whether or not they bought or sold that is important.
I've deployed the rest of my 50 into a straddle by buying both oil and TSLA. TSLA is short term calls whike oil is long term stock.
Both Brent Crude and TSLA are up in pre-market trading.
If the oil futures are up, we can perhaps close the last Wednesday's gap - getting up to $204- 205...
For those seeking more info on oil benchmarks, I found the following article helpful:
Understanding Benchmark Oils: Brent Blend, WTI and Dubai
If the oil futures are up, we can perhaps close the last Wednesday's gap - getting up to $204- 205...
For those seeking more info on oil benchmarks, I found the following article helpful:
Understanding Benchmark Oils: Brent Blend, WTI and Dubai
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And on Tuesday night TMC had the most users online ever at over 14,000. Obviously more Tesla owners joining, but I think it mostly has to do with the great anticipation for the Model X. People are looking for this car and when Elon tweets a mysterious image of the thing, TSLA is going to run. When that is, ???
chickensevil
Active Member
Since I think people glossed over this. This is another building in addition to the Factory and Lanthrop. The author is guessing some kind of warehouse building but it is unclear what they might decide to use this for. It could just be similar to Lanthrop where they want to move some things out of the main building because it would be for parts that go into the car, but don't need to be made directly on site. Having it local would save on shipping while also saving precious space inside Fremont.
This is just further evidence that they are being overly aware of the space they are using in the factory building even though they haven't filled it up yet. They must be really trying to squeeze every amount of space they can think of. So the question is, is this just steps to take in order to provide enough room to hit 500k in Fremont or steps on top of that to go even higher? Either way, I think as they keep doing things like this it tells me that they are not quite yet ready to seek out a second factory, yet. This is because they need to figure out the most efficient use of their current space so when they build their second factory it will be designed in a way that works best for them.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Does anyone really expect oil pricing to stay down for an extended period? I certainly don't, and I don't expect $2/gallon gasoline by the time Model 3 comes out.
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