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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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So the question is, is this just steps to take in order to provide enough room to hit 500k in Fremont or steps on top of that to go even higher?
I'm pretty sure the presses only do 500k cars and they are using the ones Nummi used. Also considering the usefulness of localized production I am sure they will build other factories for further expansion.
 
I'm pretty sure the presses only do 500k cars and they are using the ones Nummi used.

How many parts a press or press line can do per day/week/month/year is dependent on so many factors it's not easily discussed as you've stated it here - as a specific number. There most definitely is a finite number of parts that a press/press line can do in a specified period of time based on a lot of very specific information (which we do not have) and based on highest efficiencies, but mostly the number is fluid because of the hundreds of factors involved.

As well, they are not just using 'the ones Nummi used', nor are they limited to them. They purchased what I believe was advertised as the largest press line in NA and installed it before Model S was being made. They also have the option of purchasing additional presses/press lines at any time which would increase the ability to make more parts per day/week/month/year.
 
They purchased what I believe was advertised as the largest press line in NA and installed it before Model S was being made. They also have the option of purchasing additional presses/press lines at any time which would increase the ability to make more parts per day/week/month/year.
Yes you are completely correct. What I meant is they have a press that is capable of around 500k because that is what Toyota had there already and Tesla bought that because they got a deal. So, they will want to maximize the use of that and produce around 500k cars at Fremont. After that, they probably want to expand geographically rather than pushing what can be done there much past that because production in Europe or China will help with currency fluctuations and save on transportation costs.
 
Comparing this two views it looks like there is a new bulding added there, unless I'm wrong? Is this the one posted by jkliu47?

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Yes you are completely correct. What I meant is they have a press that is capable of around 500k because that is what Toyota had there already and Tesla bought that because they got a deal. So, they will want to maximize the use of that and produce around 500k cars at Fremont. After that, they probably want to expand geographically rather than pushing what can be done there much past that because production in Europe or China will help with currency fluctuations and save on transportation costs.


Don't think any US car manufacturer has ever made money selling cars in Europe.
GM sells very well in China, that tells me tesla has potential there.
 
Yes you are completely correct. What I meant is they have a press that is capable of around 500k because that is what Toyota had there already and Tesla bought that because they got a deal. So, they will want to maximize the use of that and produce around 500k cars at Fremont. After that, they probably want to expand geographically rather than pushing what can be done there much past that because production in Europe or China will help with currency fluctuations and save on transportation costs.

I don't think the presses/press lines are (were) the only factor in determining factory car creation capacity. We also have no information about how many car (body) parts Toyota and GM were making and how many were being outsourced when reaching their output capacity, nor how that compares to how many car (body) parts Tesla makes or outsources. I'm not even sure how many car models were being made at Nummi at the height of its production, meaning the more models being made on those presses/press lines the less (differing) parts can be made because of die/die set changes. Having been a press operator before, I know that often times a press/press line can produce far more parts than it/they actually do, but for pesky things like break downs, maintenance, misfeeds, mishits, die changes/set up, bad material, human error, poor scheduling, etc... So I just don't think it's correct (without a lot more information - type of press, cycles (hits per minute), die type, construction (does the die make one part or a pair of parts), and the list goes on) to say that the presses/press lines are limited to 500k cars per year, particularly (again) when Tesla always has the option of adding, never mind becoming more efficient, which is something all factories with presses are constantly working on (and often struggling with).
 
Something strange did happen yesterday in Germany:
A positive review on Model S P85D is out: Auto Zeitung - E-rocket with four doors

Tesla Model S P85D: faster to 100 km/h as a 911 GT3

And it does not matter whether you drive or up to seven places are allocated in Tesla. For even the P85D can be equipped with two seats in the trunk, but are only good for children. If the American sports sedan losspurtet, the acceleration is felt more strongly than in the Bugatti Veyron.
The push comes as straightforward as immediate and almost silent compared to the hoarse roar of powerful petrol engines with the electric car. A comparable driving comfort unrivaled by any other car. It is this difference between the acoustic standstill and incredible acceleration that changes the passengers. You feel as if all the blood differs from the legs and collects in the torso.
But the facts speak for Tesla: The P85D accelerates faster than a 3.4 seconds to 100 km (work fields) Porsche 911 GT3 . And the sedan does not even have to change gears - it has only one gear. The only thing the driver is still needed is, durchzutreten the accelerator.
Other reviews (more important ones;) ) might follow soon ...
 
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Maoing doesn't sound like a FUDster. I used to be cautious like that. It really helped in my stock picking and not making a mistake because if a CEO's charismatic speech. That is until TSLA where I took a leap of faith before Elon became Charismatic.

Adam jonas's report is pretty neutral and realistic. If a statement irks you, it might be because there is some truth in it.

Then again, whatever people says doesn't matter. It is whether or not they bought or sold that is important.
I've deployed the rest of my 50 into a straddle by buying both oil and TSLA. TSLA is short term calls whike oil is long term stock.

Bravo on your trade, may it profit thee! You use USO for oil?
 
I don't think the presses/press lines are (were) the only factor in determining factory car creation capacity. We also have no information about how many car (body) parts Toyota and GM were making and how many were being outsourced when reaching their output capacity, nor how that compares to how many car (body) parts Tesla makes or outsources. I'm not even sure how many car models were being made at Nummi at the height of its production, meaning the more models being made on those presses/press lines the less (differing) parts can be made because of die/die set changes. Having been a press operator before, I know that often times a press/press line can produce far more parts than it/they actually do, but for pesky things like break downs, maintenance, misfeeds, mishits, die changes/set up, bad material, human error, poor scheduling, etc... So I just don't think it's correct (without a lot more information - type of press, cycles (hits per minute), die type, construction (does the die make one part or a pair of parts), and the list goes on) to say that the presses/press lines are limited to 500k cars per year, particularly (again) when Tesla always has the option of adding, never mind becoming more efficient, which is something all factories with presses are constantly working on (and often struggling with).

The best I can tell you is that it is able to make a pair of parts when the part is small enough to fit more than one on a single sheet. You can see that from the few videos we have of the inside of the factory. I suppose you could also count the timing in the videos between each stamp to identify how many stamps per minute they were running at, at least at the time of the video being filmed. But yeah, you are right, it is hard to say how many they can get out of it. But information has been spread around from various sources that suggest that their stamping should be able to handle the 500k at least. Beyond that, noone really knows and I doubt Tesla really knows for sure since they haven't pushed out 500k cars yet (or even anything close to that). It was observed in the past during someone's tour that the stamping was not running while they were in there, and they asked why it wasn't on. The response was that because of the high output of the stamping they don't have to run it all the time (If I recall correctly they said something like 2 days a week or some such and they just make all the parts they need for that whole stretch of production).

Anyway, that is the best I can recall on the subject from memory. Anything else you will have to try to hunt down the direct sources for yourselves. Hope that helps!
 
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