I am also not sure why the first X shipments will cause much of a pop. It is a big de-risking, to see that it is cool and real. But these things are supposed to be, so only risk goes away.
Blip, that is a useful reminder. It wasn't until Q1 2013, when they announced they would be profitable that the stock took off and never looked back. There are a lot of parallels here in 2015. Mid year first deliveries, ramping in the 2H. Goal to be cash flow positive in Q4 (really Q1 I think). I think the pattern is no coincidence. You go through the pains to do the launch, then you just let the factory run and work on efficiency and scale for a quarter or 2. Meanwhile, you tamp down other spending and remind investors that the business IS fundementally profitable. Stock goes up, cash raise is done, rinse, repeat.
For this reason I am wondering if we won't really be treading water until next spring....
I would think the situation is completely different now.
Back in 2012 Tesla was a company with a pipe dream. Sure, the Model S looked nice and the specks were impressive on paper, but most thought it's going to be a kit car sold to a few hundred rich Californians and eventually prove everyone right who looks at EVs as weird mobiles or the toy of the rich. So doing the design studio and starting deliveries wasn't enough - it took the stellar Q1 2013 delivery numbers for people to take note that this is happening for real.
Today, Tesla has proven itself, the Model S is rivaling the sales of the 7 series BMW and production has been going on and growing for years. The cars are closing on on the Germans in quality, they are not falling apart, the batteries are not dying after 2 years, etc. The problem is that Tesla's management lost some credibility. They keep spending the money (as planned) but the results get pushed out. Will the X be delivered in September? Maybe, but it's been delayed by 2 years already. Will production scale without issues or will Tesla unravel in the complexities of producing 2 cars at high volume? Will the GF go online in q1 or will Elon just push it out in February by 2 years like with the other products?
So I think every bit of real "evidence" will help. Once the invites to the Founders deliveries go out to the press or the design studio goes live, we will see a bump -"yeah, ok, looks like they will delivery in q3 finally". Hell, even a tweet of the paintshop ready with the first X body may help.
Then as people start to configure and the sigs roll off the assembly lines we should see confidence build again. Right about that time we should learn q3 delivery numbers.
If evidence comes out of production ramping as planned later on, we should also see a bump.
I may be wrong, of course, but i think if Tesla starts showing signs of executing as planned, the current tide will shift the other way.
PS: of course i am long TSLA so I am optimistic about all of the above, just trying to think with the head of others, who are less involved or invested and look at this more pragmatically.
