Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Lump]

While leaning bearish going into earning I didn't buy any PUTS & now fear I may have sold too early as well, not sure what to make out of this drive unit embargo & where that may go...#376

 

[maoing]

I don't think SP will free fall from here. It's already down 50 points. Maybe another 10-15 points drop during general market panic, then we should see short term rebounce soon. I'm setting buy limits @ 230 and 220.

While leaning bearish going into earning I didn't buy any PUTS & now fear I may have sold too early as well, not sure what to make out of this drive unit embargo & where that may go...#376

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I sold way too early. I bought protective put in the last one hour spike before ER (partly encouraged by AIMc's move), sold next day in the 10% big drop. Didn't expect drop so hard, so quick at all. Fortunately I only had less than 50% long position into ER.

Good moves Lump with the Strangles! Congrats. Sold my Sept. ER protective puts a day too early it appears......hopefully not a week or two too early.

 

[justthateasy]

Pre-market just opened and it's not looking good for TSLA. It's based on low volume but currently down over $5 to 231 and change. Time to cut any losses and hope to get in at a much lower price. If this is how things are going to be in the short-term, I hope TSLA dips back well below 200.

 

[FANGO]

And I hope tesla goes up to 700. Why would you hope it to go down?

Pre market is down about 2% everywhere, seems to be related to euro market being down that far. So it's not that it doesn't look good for tesla, but that it doesn't look good for everyone else either.

 

[justthateasy]

And I hope tesla goes up to 700. Why would you hope it to go down?

Pre market is down about 2% everywhere, seems to be related to euro market being down that far. So it's not that it doesn't look good for tesla, but that it doesn't look good for everyone else either.

I'd like to see TSLA hit 700, better yet, hit 1000 one day. However, considering the negatively perceived ER and market forces, it's more than likely that TSLA will hit 200 than 700. At which point, I'm hoping it hits 200 and lower so I can get back in cheaper.

 

[Drax7]

@mao, you previously mentioned tesla was demand constrained, now you change your tune .

 

[AlMc]

@mao, you previously mentioned tesla was demand constrained, now you change your tune .

I am looking for the post where he changed his tune. The latest post upstream just discusses his outlook on the price action and his positioning of his money with respect to TSLA

 

[Drax7]

I am looking for the post where he changed his tune. The latest post upstream just discusses his outlook on the price action and his positioning of his money with respect to TSLA

Thankfully I don't invest around his tune or rationalizations .
Why look to buy if tesla is demand constrained.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

As Toyota is currently bringing first Mirai Hydrogen Fuel Cell Sedan to Europe some figures for context with Tesla Model S.
While the price tag, at least in Germany, is hefty global production numbers will remain small during the next years:

The gross price of the Mirai in Germany reaches an eye-watering €78,540 ($87,532) making it some €4340 ($4836) more expensive than the entry-level Tesla Model S 70.

Globally, just 700 Mirais will be built this year, with 2,000 due to be produced during 2016. Even by the end of 2017, annual production figures will only total 3,000 cars per year.

(link)

 

[AlMc]

Thankfully I don't invest around his tune or rationalizations .

We all should invest based on our own tune or rationalization as ultimately we are responsible for our own decisions. You are pursuing the tact best suited for your assessment of the situation. I have no issue with that and in fact applaud it.

 

[aznt1217]

I'd like to see TSLA hit 700, better yet, hit 1000 one day. However, considering the negatively perceived ER and market forces, it's more than likely that TSLA will hit 200 than 700. At which point, I'm hoping it hits 200 and lower so I can get back in cheaper.

Yes we've all been there, but there's always a tendency to lower your targets to the point where you don't buy back in.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

The highs and lows of "investing" in today's world. The market always delivers maximum pain. If it bounces, it will likely end up retracing again - more slow painful movement. If it tanks, I can see a Google stepping in and causing a 25% jump - right at the point where most "investors" have bailed. It isn't a fun game.

 

[Hogfighter]

the anti-Tesla view has changed as well from 1. Model S is vaporware to 2. F*&E to 3. No one outside of California wants them to 4. No one outside of California & Norway wants them to 5. OK, the car exists, people like them worldwide, but Tesla can't make a profit while spending a ton of $$ on continued growth, so the growth won't materialize b/c investors won't fund it (or some other incoherent statement)

Very true. I don't see the stock popping until TSLA reports being cash flow positive and Model X rolling off the lines at 800 per week. But hey, I've been wrong before!

 

[Gtoffo]

Very true. I don't see the stock popping until TSLA reports being cash flow positive and Model X rolling off the lines at 800 per week. But hey, I've been wrong before!

I think even amongst the "veterans" some doubt has formed about Model X delivery.

A lot of risk revolves around the fact that the launch of Model X may damage the production numbers of Model S. Remember the market has an attention span of just 3 months.

At the moment TSLA is being discounted because of the very real risk of lower than expected Q4 results.

IF (big if) they do execute perfectly and Model X rolls out without a hitch then the stock will certainly soar back to where it was and beyond.

Regarding this: every step the company takes in that direction will be rewarded:

• Design studio released on time (maybe with some surprises?)
• First production units rolling out
• First deliveries
• Ramp up

Anything but perfect execution though..... a lot of risk. Not a lot of buyers willing to take but potentially big rewards for those who do. Being already all in (I didn't take any profit at the top unfortunately) I don't have much choice but to try not to look at the stock too much in the next 3 months.

 

[sub]

All hope is lost in the short term thread, time to buy.

 

[Gtoffo]

All hope is lost in the short term thread, time to buy.

We seem to be showing some strength today and outperforming the market at the moment (TSLA has a high beta).

Those who wanted to sell had their opportunity in the last few days. Those who haven't probably won't at this point.

 

[uselesslogin]

All hope is lost in the short term thread, time to buy.

...is what we were saying all the way down to the 180s last time. Still, I always say when people ask if you can hold 10 years and not look any price under $500 is a good one.

edit: and to be clear my prognostication for stock price over the next 6 months is that it will fluctuate. But I think we will be at least $350 and probably much higher with steady Model X production next year.

 

[pGo]

For the short term, the question is if TSLA breaches 200dma at 229-230. If it does, more pain is ahead. If not, we stay in limbo until and if Model X features positively surprise the market.

 

[Krugerrand]

People have short memories. Tesla warned us all at the beginning of the year that they were going to spend a (I forget the word Elon used) ginormous amount of money this year because that was the best thing to do. Short and long term investors should have taken that as a big, red, flashing neon cue that TSLA would fluctuate as if it was bi-polar, especially if anything, even the tiniest, within or outside to Tesla's control happened.

People have short memories. Today's ramblings on TMC are like walking back in time to 2012 when Tesla was preparing to bring Model S to market. We've got the same warnings and sentiments with a handful of diehards who believe and most everyone else in some form and level of uncertainty and panic. I've pinched myself and confirmed I'm not dreaming. It's really happening again.

 

[sub]

...is what we were saying all the way down to the 180s last time. Still, I always say when people ask if you can hold 10 years and not look any price under $500 is a good one.

edit: and to be clear my prognostication for stock price over the next 6 months is that it will fluctuate. But I think we will be at least $350 and probably much higher with steady Model X production next year.

Maybe I should have included one of these

I haven't done anything yet, I already got some money tied up that I may need else where short term so i'm not happy about that. I'm hoping that design studio plus some macro changes will get this headed back up in the right direction, even if it's slowly.