Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[hockeythug]

I'm out until this China thing stabilizes.

 

[austinEV]

...is what we were saying all the way down to the 180s last time. Still, I always say when people ask if you can hold 10 years and not look any price under $500 is a good one.

edit: and to be clear my prognostication for stock price over the next 6 months is that it will fluctuate. But I think we will be at least $350 and probably much higher with steady Model X production next year.

Well, there were weeks of "buy this dip" and "I am picking up more at these prices" too. This is turned bearish, and unusually fast.

I am not saying that the TMC Gloom Indicator (TGI) is reliable or even useful, but I would say it's off the charts high.

 

[ibcs]

I'm out until this China thing stabilizes.

Agreed! I might miss a small run up, but I rather miss a huge drop if it occurs. Still love TSLA and will be back, just at what point is the true question.

 

[Bgarret]

Not to be the lone bull here, but bought September 25 calls at about 232 and added to 2017 LEAPs. There is surprising resilience in the IV for calls (had also purchased some yesterday). Thought both September calls and LEAPs would be down harder this morning, but it seems the market expects something to happen before the end of September.....hmmm. May be eating September(s), but feel good about the Jan 2017 calls. Not for the faint of heart. Good luck to all...

 

[aznt1217]

Not to be the lone bull here, but bought September 25 calls at about 232 and added to 2017 LEAPs. There is surprising resilience in the IV for calls (had also purchased some yesterday). Thought both September calls and LEAPs would be down harder this morning, but it seems the market expects something to happen before the end of September.....hmmm. May be eating September(s), but feel good about the Jan 2017 calls. Not for the faint of heart. Good luck to all...

You're not a lone bull. I did what I did in 2013 at the 240 mark. Went 100% margin on common shares. No cajones for options. I'll pay my interest because I see a ton of upside. Problem with the momentum we had is it goes both ways and we just exited a short cycle. Again the fundamental story has changed-- but for the better. We have Tesla Energy now and a company that is entering into stage 2 of growth.

 

[uselesslogin]

You're not a lone bull. I did what I did in 2013 at the 240 mark. Went 100% margin on common shares. No cajones for options. I'll pay my interest because I see a ton of upside. Problem with the momentum we had is it goes both ways and we just exited a short cycle. Again the fundamental story has changed-- but for the better. We have Tesla Energy now and a company that is entering into stage 2 of growth.

I mean I'm undecided for the short run but certainly a bull. Do I count? How Model X will affect the stock is completely unpredictable to me. Other than I know the stock will go very high once there is positive cash flow. Anyway I ain't going anywhere just waiting. But yeah I am always surprised by things getting so bearish when so little has changed except for the stock price.

 

[AlMc]

Not to be the lone bull here, but bought September 25 calls at about 232 and added to 2017 LEAPs. There is surprising resilience in the IV for calls (had also purchased some yesterday). Thought both September calls and LEAPs would be down harder this morning, but it seems the market expects something to happen before the end of September.....hmmm. May be eating September(s), but feel good about the Jan 2017 calls. Not for the faint of heart. Good luck to all...

I moved my Sept calls back to March. I may miss a big pop but I decided it mitigated some short term risk. I hold my long term core shares and a small amount of trading shares....sold the other shares to sit on some cash with all the China:macro pressure at 240 several days ago.

 

[Gtoffo]

You're not a lone bull. I did what I did in 2013 at the 240 mark. Went 100% margin on common shares. No cajones for options. I'll pay my interest because I see a ton of upside. Problem with the momentum we had is it goes both ways and we just exited a short cycle. Again the fundamental story has changed-- but for the better. We have Tesla Energy now and a company that is entering into stage 2 of growth.

Exactly. Only reason I'm worried is some of my options expire in Jan....otherwise this would be a blip I would barely register on my radar. Unfortunately Jan will be a very bad moment if X goes bad for any reason.

I think some sort of hiccup must be expected at this point. A perfect rollout would be an exceptional event. I just wonder if the current price reflects that.

 

[AlMc]

Exactly. Only reason I'm worried is some of my options expire in Jan....otherwise this would be a blip I would barely register on my radar. Unfortunately Jan will be a very bad moment if X goes bad for any reason.

I think some sort of hiccup must be expected at this point. A perfect rollout would be an exceptional event. I just wonder if the current price reflects that.

Current price is not reflecting perfect rollout/ramp. It reflects that the market expects some minor hiccups that pull total deliveries to 50-55k IMO.

 

[Lump]

I am surprised with the strength & bounce off the low so far.

 

[AlMc]

I am surprised with the strength & bounce off the low so far.

I agree. The conspiracy theory part of my brain always wonders if some of the institutional investors have information that we don't when this happens.

 

[techmaven]

I bought back in a little this morning at ~$234. Stock, not options. I think call options is still quite risky right now and the timing of catalysts is difficult to gauge and there might be still some significant pain to wade through beforehand. I don't like how expensive longer term calls are right now, so stock seemed like the best play.

 

[Lump]

An hour ago I was kicking myself for not buying puts now I am pissed I didn't buy calls...I need to go to the beach :smile:

 

[FredTMC]

I agree. The conspiracy theory part of my brain always wonders if some of the institutional investors have information that we don't when this happens.

Probably nothing big... Something like Google (alpha bet) taking a $6B minority position in Tesla.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Probably nothing big... Something like Google (alpha bet) taking a $6B minority position in Tesla.

Or an algorithm testing the conviction of bulls on the upside. The computers know the downside has been good.

 

[sub]

curious bounce here, not complaining.

 

[austinEV]

$245 close. we are oversold. Even if this is a sustained downtrend, a green day is really overdue.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Well I can't find anything at all new today Tesla news wise. Crickets and re-published spam.

 

[AlMc]

Probably nothing big... Something like Google (alpha bet) taking a $6B minority position in Tesla.

I was thinking more like $10 billion from Alphabet but would settle for 6

 

[mrdoubleb]

$245 close. we are oversold. Even if this is a sustained downtrend, a green day is really overdue.

Hmm, so much for timing... thought it would be a good time to move over the majority of my shares to a long term investment account so i don't have to pay taxes. Problem is you can only do that by selling your shares, waiting 3 days and buying them again on the long term account. Hoped for some stability or at least no significant move up...