GreenCar Reports.com published an article indicating that according to unnamed supplier sources some orders with the top tier suppliers are not finalized and volume production of MX might not start earlier than December because of it. According to these sources TM can still build low volume cars, less than a 1000. Not sure why suppliers decided to spill the beans - is it just frustration that orders are not finalized in a timely manner, or an attempt to force TM to negotiate on favorable to the suppliers terms...
Well... we know that Tesla is having birthing problems with the Model X. The question becomes, "hand built" means what exactly in early Q4? What kinds of lead times are actually necessary? Honestly, if "hand built" parts allows Tesla to build 1,000 vehicles in less than a month, that's actually pretty good. Say that allows Tesla to build 1,000 in September, then another 1,500 in October, and 2,000 in November. Then in December, they build 4,000. That's 8,500 in the year, deliver 7,000.
From the Q2 shareholder letter:
We are now targeting deliveries of between 50,000 and 55,000 Model S and Model X cars in 2015. While our equipment installation and final testing of Model X is going well, there are many dependencies that could influence our Q4 production and deliveries. We are still testing the ability of many suppliers to deliver high quality production parts in quantities sufficient to meet our planned production ramp. Since production ramps rapidly late in Q4, a one-week push out of this ramp due to an issue at even a single supplier could reduce Model X production by approximately 800 units for the quarter.
...
In addition, the timing of the Model X production ramp and high total deliveries in Q4 create operational challenges for our delivery organization towards the end of the year. This adds complexity in predicting our delivery rate with precision.
I've suspected that the promotion for the Model S has to do with dramatically increasing Model S sales in the U.S. to cover any shortfalls in the Model X launch. It's de-risking. With the strong dollar, demand overseas has likely dropped somewhat. So it's on the backs of Model S sales to insure good numbers for the quarter.
Thus far in 2015, Tesla has made 23,967 Model S's and delivered 21,577. Add 12,000 and 11,000 respectively for Q3, that's 35,967 and 32,577. The amount of vehicles they have to deliver to hit minimum guidance in Q4 is 17,423, to hit original guidance is 22,423 in a single quarter.
If Model X is 7,000, then Model S only needs to provide 10,423 deliveries to hit the minimum, but 15,423 to hit original guidance.
