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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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TSLA is shooting up for no apparent reason, while the rest of the market is "meh". Haven't seen this in a long time. Me likey.

Edit: Actually, some other autos are going up, too. I wonder why.

Since news is rather weak this morning, I attribute the rise to the Monday morning effect. When TSLA is in a descending mode, it is afraid of its own shadow and descends with the slightest provocation. Conversely, when TSLA has turned a corner and is in climbing mode, particularly with a good price, both shorts and longs have the whole weekend to ponder the climbing trend. Thus, a Monday morning buy-in is not uncommon, particularly since TSLA's performance on Friday was reasonably good, considering how the Dow dropped Friday afternoon.
 
The stock appears to be running into resistance at the top of the downtrend channel, around $208. This would explain the low volume. If it can break above $220, and any new information is released, I would be surprised if Tesla doesn't re-test $250. The stock spent a long time consolidating around there.

Isn't there a hearing going on in Hartford CT today about a proposal to let Tesla have stores in CT?
 
I just don't think battery swapping is feasible for common people. Say I want to go from A to B to C to A. Now I swap my battery between A to B, and one more time from B to C and I come back to A. How do I get my original battery back? Shouldn't this model require battery to be separated from car price and always rented out? I don't get logistics nightmares.

As Elon Musk has said, you would either:
- Come back and pick up your battery OR
- Pay to have the battery brought to your local service center and pick it up there OR
- Pay to keep the battery you got from the swap.

Think of it being a bit like car rental: if you pick up a car at B and drop off the car at A, it'll cost you more than returning the car to B. And it'd probably be more expensive if ask to buy the rental off them. :p

Similar economics can happen with multi-city plane tickets versus return trips.

But yes, the swapping model would work better with battery leasing, because every pool battery would be more or less identical and they wouldn't have to store "your" battery.
 
But yes, the swapping model would work better with battery leasing, because every pool battery would be more or less identical and they wouldn't have to store "your" battery.


Hmmmm...battery leasing would really, really lower the initial cost of a car, and especially for a Model III.

Hadn't really thought that over before, but if the battery was priced-out of the purchase and you paid a monthly for the battery usage, that would make the cars super-accessible.

Maybe you could use a 20kWH battery for normal commuting, but when you want to take a longer jaunt, just swap in a 45kWH and go supercharging.
 
Will the Model X qualify for the heavy vehicle incentives?
How To Take A 100% Tax Write-Off For A New Porsche, BMW or Cadillac - Forbes

"you can write off the full cost of purchasing a new luxury SUV—provided it’s used 100% for business and its gross vehicle weight is more than 6,000 pounds."

The Model X will almost certainly weigh more than 6,000 pounds.

Model x will not weigh over 6000, I guarantee it. It's going to be about 10% more than the s maximum, so that's not even 5000 lbs.

edit: duh, GVWR, didn't bother to read the quoted part, thanks for the correction papafox. Hmm maybe it will be just over 6k...I can't imagine it being much over 6k, but yeah, I guess so. That will be nice.
 
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Model x will not weigh over 6000, I guarantee it. It's going to be about 10% more than the s maximum, so that's not even 5000 lbs.

I believe drinkerofkoolaid is talking about gross weight, rather than empty weight, and all loaded up the Model X might be able to exceed 6,000 lbs. Let's see . . ., 7 passengers x 180 lbs. = 1260 additional lbs. right there.
 
tesla-continues-eye-chinese-market-plans-release-model-x-2016

Tesla on Monday said that it plans to begin rolling out its new SUV vehicle, Model X, in China by early 2016.
<snip>
The company will also begin selling its dual-motor Model S in the coming months.
<snip>
Shares of Tesla were trading higher on Monday following the encouraging news announcement the company intends to remain focused on one of the largest and most important auto markets in the world.
 
From posted comments it appears that members who reside in California may not be aware that a major storm is brewing in the North East and many of Wall Streets traders are said to have left early for the day which may account for the low volumes this afternoon. Thousands of flights into this area have already been cancelled, the New York State Office has issued a travel advisory, and now it is reported that all Broadway shows have been cancelled. This according to NEWS radio 680AM.

But all I can think of is all of the reports we are now going to be getting from S85D drivers that will be boring us to death about how great the car is in snow with its AWD ! At the very least it could make a good Tesla related news story and who knows, may even give a slight boost to the stock.
 
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From posted comments it appears that members who reside in California may not be aware that a major storm is brewing in the North East and many of Wall Streets traders are said to have left early for the day which may account for the low volumes this afternoon. Thousands of flights into this area have already been cancelled, the New York State Office has issued a travel advisory, and now it is reported that all Broadway shows have been cancelled. This according to NEWS radio 680AM.

But all I can think of is all of the reports we are now going to be getting from S85D drivers that will be boring us to death about how great the car is in snow with its AWD ! At the very least it could make a good Tesla related news story and who knows, may even give a slight boost to the stock.

I really have a hard time deciding whether you are trying to convey jealousy, sarcasm or FUD.
 
From posted comments it appears that members who reside in California may not be aware that a major storm is brewing in the North East and many of Wall Streets traders are said to have left early for the day which may account for the low volumes this afternoon. Thousands of flights into this area have already been cancelled, the New York State Office has issued a travel advisory, and now it is reported that all Broadway shows have been cancelled. This according to NEWS radio 680AM.

But all I can think of is all of the reports we are now going to be getting from S85D drivers that will be boring us to death about how great the car is in snow with its AWD ! At the very least it could make a good Tesla related news story and who knows, may even give a slight boost to the stock.

I will be the first: My P85+, with 21" snows handled the snow last year better than my next door neighbor's RWD BMW which got stuck going up the long hill leading into the development. I will report back tomorrow about the 'D' in the snow we are to get here overnight.:wink:
 
Unfortunately I can no longer view the pictures on the web page (current web page not accessible; web page in cache showing only text without pictures).
On Friday I discovered the web page and I was able to view the web page including the pictures.
Since Saturday I am no longer able to access and view the pictures:(
I wanted to ask if some one else has seen the pictures on Friday or maybe earlier.

I saw the photos, I also have them saved off because of them having been cached on my system, however I don't know what the etiquette is here since some of these photos were obviously taken from within the factory (which unless you get official photos from Tesla, I am pretty certain that pictures in the factory are not supposed to be happening) and the rest were pictures of call logs, which seem very sensitive and private to the company. If the site was still active obviously you could happily go there, but outside of that, I really don't feel comfortable posting the pictures here.

What I will say, as best I can tell, they were authentic photos. The claims on the text of the site (which you can still read) is WAY overblown. There is what appears to be a couple rows of cars missing various windows (why that is, I don't know) but it isn't all the cars. I would suggest maybe 5 cars in the photos had windows missing. There were no tags on the cars or anything else that would obviously mark them as "problematic", and I am inclined to think that these were all taken at a period when either A: These cars were waiting to get that whole D situation sorted, or B: get picked up for shipping overseas. Depending on when these photos where taken I am more inclined to believe one of those two, neither of which would indicate a "huge quality control issue". Cars are still rapidly coming off the line and being shipped, we would know from customer reports if there was an issue as stark as being painted by the words of that website. If I could get file creation times, or photo timestamps that would help pin things down... but they simply are not present.

I checked for metadata, and the files have clearly been scrubbed of any markers. So nothing great there, but what made me suspicious of the site itself... it claimed that the "first" post was on 1/16 (showed pictures of call logs... I also have these... CERTAINLY won't re-share these) and the second on the 19th, however best I can tell the first web-evidence of the site was on the 23rd. The filenames of the various photos were also numbered by even counts starting from the top of the page to the bottom. If the first "post" was really done on the 16th, then those photos should have lower numbers, but instead the first photo of the call logs start at "image016.jpg" and go to "image022.jpg" and the "later" post has "image002.jpg" to "image014.jpg". So something was very fishy about the site from that. Also, all links to the site (which first happened on the 23rd) came in the forms of comments on various blogs, news stories, and investor comment threads. These were all made by people clearly trying to post some big "negative news" find, and had a history of posting straight negative comments. My thought is that they were all the same person, just different account names on the different sites... but who knows? In any case, while not evidence that it was designed to be "authentic" FUD... I am inclined to go that direction.

Whoever originated the content (both the photos and call logs) clearly went through a lot of trouble to hide where they came from. The site itself was hosted on a free web service by a Holland/Netherlands company whose servers are in Germany. The text struck me as odd with the use of spelling of "favourite" which is weird if all the content was sourced from the states (not impossible to speak/write with British English... but it is VERY uncommon for that part of the world). It could very well be that the one who uploaded the content/wrote the "posts" was not the same person/people who provided the data.

Anyway, that was pretty much all the sleuthing I did on the site before it was taken offline. *shrugs* likely nothing is to come of it... just another failed attempt to cause pandemonium on the stock/company.
 
I saw the photos, I also have them saved off because of them having been cached on my system, however I don't know what the etiquette is here since some of these photos were obviously taken from within the factory (which unless you get official photos from Tesla, I am pretty certain that pictures in the factory are not supposed to be happening) and the rest were pictures of call logs, which seem very sensitive and private to the company. If the site was still active obviously you could happily go there, but outside of that, I really don't feel comfortable posting the pictures here.

What I will say, as best I can tell, they were authentic photos. The claims on the text of the site (which you can still read) is WAY overblown. There is what appears to be a couple rows of cars missing various windows (why that is, I don't know) but it isn't all the cars. I would suggest maybe 5 cars in the photos had windows missing. There were no tags on the cars or anything else that would obviously mark them as "problematic", and I am inclined to think that these were all taken at a period when either A: These cars were waiting to get that whole D situation sorted, or B: get picked up for shipping overseas. Depending on when these photos where taken I am more inclined to believe one of those two, neither of which would indicate a "huge quality control issue". Cars are still rapidly coming off the line and being shipped, we would know from customer reports if there was an issue as stark as being painted by the words of that website. If I could get file creation times, or photo timestamps that would help pin things down... but they simply are not present.

I checked for metadata, and the files have clearly been scrubbed of any markers. So nothing great there, but what made me suspicious of the site itself... it claimed that the "first" post was on 1/16 (showed pictures of call logs... I also have these... CERTAINLY won't re-share these) and the second on the 19th, however best I can tell the first web-evidence of the site was on the 23rd. The filenames of the various photos were also numbered by even counts starting from the top of the page to the bottom. If the first "post" was really done on the 16th, then those photos should have lower numbers, but instead the first photo of the call logs start at "image016.jpg" and go to "image022.jpg" and the "later" post has "image002.jpg" to "image014.jpg". So something was very fishy about the site from that. Also, all links to the site (which first happened on the 23rd) came in the forms of comments on various blogs, news stories, and investor comment threads. These were all made by people clearly trying to post some big "negative news" find, and had a history of posting straight negative comments. My thought is that they were all the same person, just different account names on the different sites... but who knows? In any case, while not evidence that it was designed to be "authentic" FUD... I am inclined to go that direction.

Whoever originated the content (both the photos and call logs) clearly went through a lot of trouble to hide where they came from. The site itself was hosted on a free web service by a Holland/Netherlands company whose servers are in Germany. The text struck me as odd with the use of spelling of "favourite" which is weird if all the content was sourced from the states (not impossible to speak/write with British English... but it is VERY uncommon for that part of the world). It could very well be that the one who uploaded the content/wrote the "posts" was not the same person/people who provided the data.

Anyway, that was pretty much all the sleuthing I did on the site before it was taken offline. *shrugs* likely nothing is to come of it... just another failed attempt to cause pandemonium on the stock/company.

Great research & write up. I feel the same.
 
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